2020 Dynasty Trade Market: AFC South
As a division, the AFC South had the most parity in the NFL last year, with the top and bottom teams only separated by four wins.
In a league where more than half (17 teams) of the current head coaches have resumes that list 2018, 2019 or 2020 as the year they were hired, the AFC South can boast some stability there as well.
When trying as we do to project forward what has a higher likelihood of happening, the less coaching and system changes we have to consider, the better.
Houston Texans
BUY: QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins
The Texans are as top-heavy as it gets when it comes to dynasty fantasy football. Both Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins rank toward the top of their positions, but it’s a dynasty wasteland after that. The tight ends sporadically score their share of touchdowns, but the offensive scheme in Houston hasn’t seemed to feature that position for years now.
When Watson entered the NFL, I worried about his fearlessness toward hard contact. He took too many unnecessary big hits in college, and had an injury-shortened rookie season, but he’s adjusted well since. It has been impressive to me how well he’s done with so few star-level teammates to lean on. I believe adding a few upgrades to the talent around him will unlock his upside.
Hopkins slipped a little in production last year, and the game theorists in your league may be trying to paint the picture that his age is factoring in. It reminds me of a scene from the movie Swingers.
Two buddies who are smooth with the ladies are trying to coach up a friend who has been out of the dating scene for far too long. One mentions the industry standard of waiting two days to call when a girl gives you her number, then the other thinks that waiting three days “is the money.” By the time they talk it out and get to the truth of what they themselves do, you find out they both wait six days.
That’s kind of how I feel some dynasty players are trending. There was a time when age 30 was when you sold off your elite wide receiver shares in order to get value for them before the perceived drop off. Then, those trying to gain a little advantage pushed that number closer to 29. It wouldn’t surprise me if selling for maximum value at 28 somehow becomes a thing, even though receivers are often still in their veteran prime at that age.
Hopkins will be 28 next year and is coming off a “down year” by his standards, so now may be a nice time to test the market on him.
HOLD: RB Duke Johnson
I used to think Duke Johnson would eventually hold a three-down role in the NFL. After seeing two separate coaching staffs slot him into their passing down role, I’ve given up on that idea. He’s too good to drop and not quite reliable enough to start, so he’ll remain in that limbo of bench-warmer with injury and bye-week replacement duties at the ready.
SELL: WR Will Fuller, RB Carlos Hyde
Will Fuller reminds me of how I view running back James Conner from Pittsburgh; they’re pretty much automatically startable if active, but the threat of re-injury always lingers, and you’re left hoping they score their fantasy stats before going down. This works reasonably well in dynasty when you have higher-end depth as replacements when they are inactive, but in real-football, the “backup cupboards” are usually bare.
After floundering for years, Carlos Hyde quietly had one of his best seasons as a pro last year; if the Texans blocking and offensive scheme open up enough room to make Hyde look good, I salivate over what a running back with more talent there may do.
Fuller proving unreliable and Hyde being replaceable has both of their featured roles in jeopardy. Selling them before those roles change is my advice.
Tennessee Titans
BUY: WR A.J. Brown, RB Derrick Henry, QB Ryan Tannehill
You could write an epic tale examining how the 2019 Titans grew from boy to man. Unleashing the beast and waging successful wars against the gods of the 2000’s (Patriots) and gods of 2019 (Ravens), before falling at the feet of the almighty Zeus (Mahomes), is not to be taken lightly.
The promotion of Ryan Tannehill over Marcus Mariota was a dynasty game changer, elevating his own status as well as those of all the boats in the Tennessee harbor. I have penciled Tannehill in as their starter going forward, and would be surprised if the Titans allow him to leave.
Another free agent I’d have a hard time imagining in a different uniform is Derrick Henry. Both Tannehill (Comeback Player of the Year) and Henry (NFL Rushing Title) added some nice hardware to their trophy rooms, and for the positions they play, both are in their athletic prime. The buy designation would quickly change to sell if they were to sign with a new team.
A.J. Brown’s rookie year was a wild one; his value was somewhat over hyped :-) after testing well at the combine, then deflated a bit when Tennessee drafted and paired him with Mariota and the run-heavy Titans. He had hot and cold moments with Mariota early on, then grew into the go-to role when Tannehill took over.
He continued an interesting trend I spotted in college, where he seems to tear up lesser competition, scoring a high percentage of his fantasy production against lower tiered (non-playoff caliber) opponents, while generally being held in-check by the better teams, including his three playoff game duds.
HOLD: WR Corey Davis
Corey Davis has had his stock drop like a rock since being drafted fifth overall in 2017. Nobody seems to want to pay a dime for him right now, so stash him on your bench and wait for better days. If you have the roster room, I’d even recommend buying him if his bitter owners will cut bait.
SELL: RB Dion Lewis
Remember that funny photo with Dion Lewis standing next to Derrick Henry, and the argument over who had more value was as polar as their difference in size? Only those on the Henry side of that debate are laughing now; if you can sell Lewis for peanuts… buy peanuts!
Indianapolis Colts
BUY: RB Marlon Mack, TE Eric Ebron, WR Parris Campbell
There is an ever-so-slight worry that Indianapolis decides to add some serious competition to their running back stable in order to get the most out of their stellar offensive line. I think Marlon Mack has performed quite well, and in spite of his poor yards per reception average, I see some untapped potential if they mix in more passes his way. His price seems fairly low for what he brings to the table.
Eric Ebron took to the Colts like a duck takes to water, making the transition to a new offense look easy, as he became Andrew Luck’s favorite scoring option.
New season, new quarterback, new injury… forgotten man.
The same guy who gobbled up 14 touchdowns the season prior is like a dead man walking when it comes to his dynasty value these days. Currently unsigned this offseason, there are a few SuperLotto-type landing spots for tight ends, and loading up on a few Ebron shares in hopes he finds one of them is an excellent bet.
The tried and true “buy the forgotten” strategy for dynasty is an excellent way to “chip up” over time; the cost is minimal, and the rewards have some bite. Parris Campbell falls into that “bucket” (hat tip to Rich Hribar) of potential post-hype players who may have run into a few difficulties as rookies, despite being all-in-all the same players we fought over this time last year. Values can drop quickly in dynasty, but can return just as fast; the emotionally-based evaluations of players rises and falls like ocean waves throughout the season and offseason, so staying in tune via articles and podcasts, especially, can tip you off and provide clear windows of buy-low opportunity you may otherwise miss.
HOLD: WR T.Y. Hilton
T.Y. Hilton may be the most common player this offseason that I keep seeing pop up in trade offers. In my humble opinion, the moment Andrew Luck walked out of Indianapolis, he had Hilton’s trade value stashed away in his luggage. When Zach Pascal, a virtual extra in the film we call the NFL, goes toe-to-toe and out-performs you, times are tough. At the same time, if Hilton is your final wideout or flex starter, you are doing fine.
No… not THAT fine.
SELL: QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Zach Pascal, TE Jack Doyle, RB Nyheim Hines
Although unofficial, reading between the lines of what upper management is saying when discussing their plans going forward, it seems a lock the Colts will have a new man under center in 2020.
For what got dumped on his plate at the last possible moment before the season began, Jacoby Brissett did about as good as I could have imagined. Outside of SuperFlex leagues I doubt anyone cares for him, but two-quarterback leagues are people too. ;-)
My man “Blaze” Pascal put his name on the lips of waiver wire scavengers across Podcastland as we toiled through a difficult 2019. There were weeks when you thought he was becoming reliable, or even good, but just when you drummed up the guts to actually start him, he goose eggs your face; you got Blazed.
I see Jack Doyle and Nyheim Hines listed on rosters across most all of my dynasty leagues, and I wonder: why? Do you believe they have the talent to help you win your league? I like chasing targets as much as the next guy, but these two have waiver wire written all over them; these are not the droids you’re looking for.
Jacksonville Jaguars
BUY: WR D.J. Chark, RB Leonard Fournette, TE Josh Oliver
Despite being drafted in the late second round, D.J. Chark flew so far under my radar last year, I mistakenly thought he was a rookie this year.
He grabbed the attention of many dynasty players by hovering in the rarefied air of a WR1 for a large percentage of the season, before an ankle injury slowed his momentum. He is young, tall, had a brilliant combine (4.34 second 40-yard dash, 40” vertical, 129” broad-jump), and established himself as a reliable number-one target for Jacksonville. His price to acquire is still lower than it should be, offering a solid buying opportunity for a player who has every-week-starter upside.
It is unlikely Leonard Fournette will ever come close to sniffing the 100 targets he received in 2019, but it is just as unlikely he only scores three touchdowns (100% of Jacksonville’s rushing touchdowns) next year. His re-dedication to health last year paid off, allowing him to survive the grind of an NFL workload for the first time in his career. He arguably had his best season, yet his dynasty price seems to be at an all-time low; this is a textbook buying opportunity.
After missing virtually his entire rookie season thanks to hamstring and back issues, Josh Oliver makes for a free dart throw if you have the extra room to roster him. I was impressed by his small-college production and solid combine performance, but admit it was frustrating to clog up a roster spot waiting for him. His early 3rd round draft capital should keep him on your radar just to see if he can use this offseason to get his body right.
HOLD: QB Gardner Minshew, WR Dede Westbrook
If you play in SuperFlex, Gardner Minshew could be shifted into the BUY category based on his currently depressed value. “BEOWULF” Minshew out-performed Nick Foles last year, and should be given the first crack at leading the Jaguars in 2020. His performance for a rookie quarterback was solid, and his college success may not have been merely scheme-based, as many have claimed.
Dede Westbrook is teetering on the edge of roster-clogger; the former Biletnikoff winner has shown flashes of production, but the only consistency you can count on has been his final stats the past two seasons. His value is low, as it should be, but the odds are reasonable he pushes for a third consecutive season with 100+ targets in 2020.
SELL: WR Chris Conley
It was nice to see Chris Conley get some “sweet mental revenge” right out the gate by having one of his best games of the season Week 1 against his former team. He set or tied career highs across the board last year, but I just don’t see much more in his bag. The odds are high that the Jaguars add some receiving talent this draft, and that should push Conley back into a complementary role best reserved for BestBall.