2020 Dynasty Trade Market: AFC East
Rumors that the new NFL CBA may be altering both the regular and post-season scheduling has been on the hotter side of recent topics.
In my opinion, if a 32 year old 10-year veteran successfully rushed back from late-season (December) achilles and ankle surgeries, then powered through ankle, knee and rib injuries in 17 regular-season games, as well as 3 additional playoff games, the argument about a 17 week regular-season schedule being too much to handle kind of loses its luster.
Hell, we’ve seen the NCAA continue to gradually extend their season with very little pushback. For example, Barry Sanders scored his legendary 37-touchdown season in only 11 games. If you pull up the list of National Champions and scan their records, you’ll see 10 and 11-game seasons dominate the 1960’s and earlier, then creep to 12 in the 1970’s and 80’s, 13 in the 1990’s, 14 in the 2000’s, and now 15-game championship seasons have dominated since 2014.
That “but what about the children?” type argument regarding the comparison of records across time has been the calling card of “resistance to changers” at each step of these schedule increases, but their voice has far less impact when you clearly see that things have never really stayed the same for long. Recent rule changes that limit how aggressive and physical players on the defensive side of the ball can play have had far more impact on the record books.
I welcome additional games.
If the rumors about extending the season by 1 game comes attached to an additional bye week, we are now talking a 19-week NFL season, and our 16 weeks of fantasy warfare should, in turn, extend to 18 weeks. I am not a fan of early season bye weeks, as it defeats most of the purpose of having a week off to heal up and rest in the first place.
It will be interesting to see how early and late the NFL schedulers extend the added bye weeks, and how much mayhem that injects into the trickled-down fantasy-adjusted schedules we must navigate.
I’m sure those that run national contests have had this potential scheduling shift on their plate for a while now, and trouble-shooting how best to evolve will be ongoing while these very-impactful NFL CBA negotiations play themselves out.
The N’Keal Harry touchdown that never was. (thanks to running out of challenges)
New England Patriots
BUY: WR N’Keal Harry, RB Damien Harris, QB Tom Brady
I’d be hard-pressed to find a division with less dynasty value than the AFC East has at the moment. Change is coming in a big way, with many high-end jobs up for grabs here.
I’ve included Tom Brady as a buy simply due to his trade value being so low. His highlights may lull you to sleep, but by season’s end, he finds his way into the QB1 group. I would rank the quality of his surrounding (skill position) talent in 2019 to be toward the bottom of the league, yet he managed to finish as the fantasy QB12. I believe he will stay in New England, but wherever he ends up starting, the weapons at his disposal should be better than they were last year.
Those who studied the 2019 rookie-crop know who Damien Harris is. Those who watched the Patriots play last season likely do not. He’s as close to free as it gets in dynasty, and taking a shot that we’ll get our chance to watch him play in 2020 is worth one of your final roster spots. The Patriots reshuffling of how they utilize their many capable backs based on their weekly opponent is as annoying as it gets for fantasy, but an injury or two could consolidate that workload into the profit zone.
I’ve been a little dumbfounded by how large the percentage of people is who watched how N’Keal Harry was deployed last season, yet came away with a sour taste in their mouth. My eyes saw the Patriots finding creative ways of scheming him the ball, and his movement looked as good as it did in college. He managed to convert his minuscule 24 targets and 12 receptions into 7 first downs and 3 (only 2 officially counted) touchdowns. His opportunity will be immense in 2020, and I’m buying him as often as possible.
HOLD: RB Sony Michel, WR Julian Edelman
Similar to Josh Jacobs last year, I’ve been a bit surprised by Sony Michel’s lack of inclusion in the passing game. When trying to project their college tape forward, I thought their soft hands would lead to receptions being a strong point in their NFL games. There are rumors the Patriots may increase that role for Michel going forward, but it is hard to trust them when they play like chameleons, always changing their look and adapting to attack their opponents weakest links. Depending on price, Sony is a borderline buy candidate.
Julian Edelman is winding down his brilliant career like the old alpha gladiator who is ripe to be defeated, yet remains quite dangerous and deadly. There’s lots of potential moving parts to consider; it would be sad to break up the Peninsula Connection of Brady (from San Mateo, CA) to Edelman (from just up the road in Redwood City, played for the junior College of San Mateo), but change never sleeps.
At the same time, it would not surprise me to see the old trio back together in 2020, with Rob Gronkowski celebrating the potential decriminalization of cannabis in the new CBA by coming out of retirement rejuvenated by the year off. The only clue I felt hit my bones was when Gronk made it look like a secret message to those with the right kind of eyes when he said “OK, maybe we call an audible…but just for THIS year” beginning at the 1:48 minute mark of his Gronk Beach promo video.
SELL: RB James White, RB Rex Burkhead
James White has been a reliable pro and has risen to the occasion when leaned upon. His dynasty value may be about to diminish, especially if the Patriots change direction at quarterback. This will be his final year under contract, and I have a hard time imagining him holding back the growth of the younger running backs in New England. His 2019 was quietly outstanding, but the talent that both he and Rex Burkhead will have to compete with for 2020 touches should decrease their involvement.
Buffalo Bills
BUY: QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary
It’s been fun watching Josh Allen grow from a husky and raw quarterback who pulled off a little dramatic pause (no, not THIS dramatic) while waiting an extra tick or two before launching wow-inducing bombs during his combine, to a fearlessly wild rusher as a rookie, to an actual NFL quarterback in 2019. He turned me into a fan this year when he showed he could float the dynasty values of two undersized wide receivers, both of which required accuracy for their skill sets to shine. I used to shun rostering Buffalo pass catchers in dynasty, but Josh Allen’s 2019 success opened that option back up to me.
It was a big deal to me to see NFL legend Frank Gore pull aside fellow legend Adrian Peterson in order to point out Devin Singletary in a post-game exchange. It had a “passing of the torch” feel to it, and Gore just does not do that kind of thing. In the second half of the season, Devin showed he could handle a solid workload, and he’s talented enough in the passing game to not tip the hand of the Bills offense. He is an exiting player to watch, and I’d welcome him onto my dynasty rosters if you happen to be selling.
HOLD: TE Dawson Knox, WR John Brown
Dawson Knox had a few moments where he flashed in 2019, and for a rookie at the tight end position, that’s about all you get to build on. He motors downfield, and his yards per reception average was higher than speedsters like Will Fuller, D.J. Chark, D.J. Moore and O.J. Howard. It’s a nice foundation for him to build on, yet his dynasty value remains very low.
Another player I’ve seen over and over in trade offers has been John Brown. Coming off a year where he set career highs in receptions and receiving yards, it must be the ever-lurking value killer of the pending “age 30 season” that has his owners trying to get what they can for him now. From what I’ve seen in processed trades, that just isn’t enough. Unless you are simply consolidating your roster, I’d hold.
SELL: WR Cole Beasley
Cole Beasley became a fairly hot pluck from the waiver wire for those that needed some help down the stretch last season. Many wondered how he would transition from Dallas to Buffalo, and he answered by looking pretty much exactly like his career averages. The looming age-31 season coupled with a possible decrease in workload is enough for me to cut bait.
New York Jets
BUY: TE Chris Herndon, WR Robby Anderson
Even after being burnt badly by Chris Herndon last season, I remain a buyer. His 2018 rookie season unlocked a bit of what his upside has in store for the faithful. The “buy the forgotten” dynasty theory is in full effect. He’s a guy I could see leapfrog a very large group by the time we start making our 2021 Tight End rankings.
Robby Anderson appears to be on the move, but I’m doubtful he gets the money he’s been rumored to be seeking. He fills a role better suited for BestBall, but his dynasty price is right if you like those splashy-quiet types.
HOLD: RB Le’Veon Bell
What an epic letdown 2019 was for those like myself who were looking forward with great anticipation to see how the trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell would play without calling each other teammates for the first time in their careers.
That felt like some newly spawned version of the Maddenvirus.
It took guts to draft Bell last year, coming off his boycotted season, but writing off 2019 in addition to that and blaming the Gase Effect just seems a little dangerous if you asked me. Is his heavy workload finally catching up? Maybe. I’d be buying if I knew he could stamp his ticket out of New York, but at the moment the rumor mill is silent.
SELL: WR Jamison Crowder, QB Sam Darnold, TE Ryan Griffin
I’ve not been big on any of these three, but at least Jamison Crowder has shown some reliability. When watching Ryan Griffin flash a bit last season, I couldn’t help but imagine Chris Herndon taking that role back and performing even better with each and every target. Sam Darnold looks like he clone-stamped his rookie season stats onto last year, showing almost zero improvement. What tiny gains he may have made were offset by his inability to limit turnovers. When I heard he didn’t even understand where to move in the pocket to maximize the protection schemes of his offensive line, I threw in the towel.
Miami Dolphins
BUY: TE Mike Gesicki, WR DeVante Parker, WR Preston Williams
If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you’ll know I was high on Mike Gesicki coming out of college. I’ve also been someone who believed DeVante Parker had a little A.J. Green to his game, but he just never could put a solid season together. Some will point the finger toward the poor quality quarterbacks he’s been forced to play with, or the Gase Effect, or nagging injuries as the excuse for his under performance, and I do think those all contributed, but I feel his maturity kicking in may be the real story.
Maturity comes late for many younger people, but it is usually accompanied by better work, sleep and eating habits, and the rave reviews he was receiving this preseason were not the same regurgitated ones revolving around “flashing big plays” like previous offseasons. This time, they rung to the much more impressive tone of comments like, “he’s been the best player in camp for the last 5 weeks," and "if he plays like this in games consistently, he’ll be a Pro Bowler.”
Big difference.
Parker has managed to survive two complete coaching changes in Miami, and put his 2019 goal of reaching the 1000 yard mark for the first time in his career out for public ridicule last season. He crushed that goal, surpassing 1200 yards to go with 9 touchdowns, and yet still there are so many non-believers out there that you can trade for him at a major bargain.
Preston Williams had his own run of production right out of the gate last year, but his injury not only sent him to the Injured Reserve, it sent him onto “the forgotten” list as well. Many were debating who holds more dynasty value between Williams and Parker in 2019, but with how Parker kept his foot on the gas late into the year, that case has been closed.
HOLD: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
Not only was I impressed with how Ryan Fitzpatrick plays each football game like it would be his last, I was impressed by how much fantasy value he kept afloat in Miami. I’m happy to see he’ll be back with the Dolphins in 2020, and even if he merely serves as a bridge to Tua, I’ll feel more comfortable with any Dolphin shares knowing he is there as a very capable backup if needed.
SELL: RB Kalen Ballage, RB Patrick Laird
I was surprised to see these two owned in over half (my personal cutoff for these articles) of my nine dynasty leagues. I like to chase possible involvement as much as the next guy, but surviving the upcoming roster cuts in dynasty seems dubious for either of these two.
That said, I give Patrick Laird a ton of credit for being one of very few NFL players (Charcandrick West being another) to have had the foresight to cross over and interact with fantasy producers.