2020 Dynasty Trade Market: AFC North
“Well hello there. My…it’s been a long, long time.”
Here we are, roughly a week after Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid & Co. pulled off a dramatic come-from-behind victory in Super Bowl 54. It’s crazy how with less than 7 minutes remaining, even as a lifelong (local) 49ers fan, I was actually rooting for a Kansas City touchdown to add a little drama to a game I thought could be milked dry by San Francisco churning clock with their run game.
THAT sure turned on a dime!
With this win, the American Football Conference extends their dominance over the rival National Football Conference, with the AFC now having won 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls.
In the first of a multi-part series, I’ll be breaking down each team in the AFC North from a dynasty football perspective, slotting all noteworthy players into the category of BUY (worth paying current market price), HOLD (current trade value doesn’t warrant moving), or SELL (inflated price may not last, or move while there is still some demand).
Baltimore Ravens
BUY: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, RB Justice Hill, WR Miles Boykin
Lamar Jackson put himself on dynasty radars with how well he performed once he earned the starting role as a rookie last season. The naysayers were out in full-throat last offseason, using their negative wordcraft to bring his redraft price down into the “thank you very much” zone. There was a time when a younger me felt compelled to debate player values on message boards or twitter whenever I strongly disagreed with consensus, but the wiser me just stands aside and quietly considers angles to capitalize on the errors in judgment that dominate social media.
Similar to most things in life, context matters; depending on how your team is assembled, how shallow your rosters are, plus how many premium draft picks you need to make room for, a BUY can also be a SELL if the offer blows you away.
I consider Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes to be in their own top tier of dynasty quarterbacks.
Mark Andrews is either scratching at the door of the “Tier 1” tight end group, or he’s already in it. His role in the Raven’s offense was not fluky or inflated, and he’s the youngest of the proven-dominant TE’s by close to 3 years.
Justice Hill and Miles Boykin are low-cost dart throws; Hill passed the eye test when given a nibble of workload, and carving out more of a role for himself seems a logical year 2 expectation. Boykin turned his extremely limited usage (22 total targets) into 3 touchdowns as a rookie, and let’s not forget how he blew the top off the combine with a 4.42 second 40-yard dash, a 43.5 inch vert, a 140 inch broad jump, and a 6.77 second 3-cone drill; these are extremely rare numbers coming from a 6’4”, 220 pound man.
HOLD: RB Mark Ingram
As a lower cost fantasy starter, Mark Ingram continued plugging along, once again giving his investors more than they paid for. His age now discounts his trade value, so holding seems the prudent move for a 15-touchdown scorer who remains involved enough in the passing game to keep defenses honest. Historically, the running back on a team with a serious dual-threat quarterback seems to find a bit more room to roam.
SELL: WR Marquise Brown
As fast as advertised, Marquise Brown impressed me by scoring 7 touchdowns as a rookie. My initial grading of his NFL potential looked quite similar to his 2019 numbers, with a little added volume if he can handle the beating. Where most will automatically bump his 2020 projection to reflect second year growth, I’m leaning more toward Marquise becoming a dangerous “BBD” (Best Ball Darling), but not dominating at the NFL level, due to his constant risk of injury. His draft capital and hot start seems to have kept his dynasty trade value afloat, but I cannot help but see a souped-up Travis Benjamin when I try to project his future.
Pittsburgh Steelers
BUY: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, QB Ben Roethlisberger
These two go hand-in-hand as major bounce-back candidates for 2020; we got a nice long look at the Steelers offensive depth chart in 2019, and I’d guess the brass in Pittsburgh noticed it was lacking as much as we did.
The insane mood-swings by those who claim to have a grip on how to value players in dynasty is, at worst, fun to watch flip-flop around. I recall at this time last offseason reading articles claiming JuJu Smith-Schuster was the crowned 1.01 in dynasty startups; now, you’d be hard pressed to find a single article defending him.
Big Ben Roethlisberger had surgery early enough in the season to allow ample recovery time before kicking off 2020. He still has a very important February checkup, but the tea leaves all point to Roethlisberger being inserted back into the lead role, and his price may be at an all-time low. He’s only a year older than Aaron Rodgers, and has plenty of game left to play.
HOLD: WR Diontae Johnson, WR James Washington, RB Benny Snell
Inserted into feature roles, Diontae Johnson and James Washington both had multiple weeks where they flashed, even while playing with low-quality backup quarterbacks. With the return of Big Ben, I expect this trio of wideouts to be quite a reliable source of fantasy scoring moving forward.
In an all-around disappointing season, rookie Benny Snell performed well enough to not noticeably look like a downgrade to the just-as-bad starters in front of him. The major difference is Snell is basically free, and he’s just starting the clock on a cheap rookie contract.
SELL: RB James Conner, RB Jaylen Samuels, TE Vance McDonald
Get what you can, while you still can, with these three; there could still be a few believers out there willing to pay half-price plus, and I’d recommend selling sooner, rather than later. The offensive system in Pittsburgh is a prime spot for any free agent or rookie to land, and with the way the Steelers defense played last year, the focus should be on improving the offensive side of the ball this offseason.
These three players have all had plenty of opportunity to shine in Pittsburgh, and have either not been durable enough to trust, or are simply the replacement-level talents many thought they were all along; count me among the latter.
Cleveland Browns
BUY: WR Odell Beckham, TE David Njoku
You get the feeling that after six seasons in the NFL, there is a split in the fan base for Odell Beckham; either you’ve rostered him at his best and he’s helped you win money, you’ve invested premium assets to get him and have been burnt by his injuries, antics or poor play, or you’ve been on the outside looking in, and have more of a neutral view of him, like I do. I believe his overall value is depressed at the moment, and he looks like a player you can buy now at a discount and reap the rewards later as a trusted foundation piece or as an asset to flip for a profit, once he strings a few big games together early next season. Even his biggest haters would be flat out lying if they claim it would “shock them” to see Beckham return to the very top of the fantasy wide receiver hierarchy.
The rumors of Cleveland possibly trading David Njoku surprised me when I first read them; considering his age, resume, and the scarcity of talent at his position, I cannot help but wonder: what red flags have they seen in him, if any? Sure, Ricky Seals-Jones is only a year older, has had the chance to develop a tad with the current team, and may be dirt cheap on the payroll, but I still can’t shake wondering why the Browns would let Njoku walk unless there is some clash in character somewhere inside that building. I’m buying the talent, and I see plenty of prime landing spots where he could easily maintain his current value.
HOLD: QB Baker Mayfield, RB Nick Chubb, WR Jarvis Landry
There is a fine line to tread when making excuses for a player who isn’t living up to expectations. Blaming the coaching staff, scheme, quality of surrounding playmakers, or offensive line seem to be the most common. Baker Mayfield regressed last year, but the talent around him remains high-end. New coaching, a new scheme, and a re-tooled line may be all it takes to run with the momentum that a fresh start brings; buying Mayfield at his low trade cost may pay big dividends.
Nick Chubb’s dynasty value seems not to have moved around at all; from the moment he was given a starters workload, he’s shown all who watch him exactly who he is. I would caution adding many more targets to his plate in your projections, but he doesn’t need any more to justify his current price. He is young, reliable, durable, and has the straight-line speed to break off large chunk plays. His price should hold strong right where it is, so trading now or later will not matter much in what you can expect to get back in return.
You just know Jarvis Landry is ribbing his old college teammate Odell with some trash talk for, once again, beating him in receptions, yards, and touchdowns like he did back when they played together at LSU. It’s hard to pick apart Landry’s game, but he just doesn’t seem to have that next-level we look for in dynasty; he has proven to be talented enough to command major targets year after year, and if he is your final starting wideout or flex, you should feel pretty comfortable with your lineup. I’ve seen offers where the Landry owner vastly overvalues where his trade market is at, and I’ve also seen him as a borderline throw-in to make deals work; that sounds like a hold to me.
SELL: RB Kareem Hunt
Kareem Hunt is a double-edged sword; with the seemingly never-ending drama that has followed him since his lie to management that led to his exodus from Kansas City, his owners have had to keep a sharp eye on each and every news blurb with Hunt’s name attached. That wears on you.
His trade value has a decent range built in, depending on how strong his current owner’s stomach is, but all-in-all it seems to be holding at a value that makes it easy to jump off this roller coaster of stress and get something quite nice in return. His future with Cleveland is not secure, and his baggage may limit how many teams will trust him enough to feature him. Kareem is getting enough in return to sell now, but count me as a buyer if his owners are shedding risk at discount.
Cincinnati Bengals
BUY: RB Joe Mixon, WR A.J. Green
With the target-stealing Giovani Bernard rumored to be on his way out of Cincinnati and a return to health for their offensive line, both the floor and ceiling of Joe Mixon has upward turned arrows. When factoring in his role, skill set, age, and production on a team that was only a shell of itself last year, buying now may be the last chance you get before his price jumps (if it hasn’t already).
The Bengals should be on your dynasty radar, with the way things could fall together if they draft QB Joe Burrow with the first overall pick, and perhaps coax A.J. Green into sticking around for the excitement. Green has missed so much time that the 100% predictable “out of site, out of mind” discount has his price at the lowest it has ever been. I haven’t forgotten how good he is when active, and the price needed to pay in order to find out if he is still that same player isn’t high enough to not load up on him.
HOLD: WR Tyler Boyd
Tyler Boyd inherited the go-to wide receiver role in A.J. Green’s absence, and brought his dynasty value out of the mud it was in. He managed to turn his alpha-receiver target load into a season comparable to the aforementioned Jarvis Landry. I have zero faith he will continue to command such a load with the roster turnover expected this offseason, but at the same time I do not see his trade value on par with his production; if you can get something valuable in return, do it. Otherwise, I’d hold.
SELL: WR John Ross
John Ross burst onto the scene with a record breaking 40-yard dash at his combine, followed by a miserable rookie season. He flashed with 7 touchdowns in his second year, exploded out the gate in 2019, then disappeared yet again.
Would the real John Ross please stand up?
Durability will be an issue that may never go away, leading to a lighter maintenance type of workload, so getting anything in trade for him while there are still Ross believers out there may be worth pursuing.