Scouting the first round of rookies.
In what now seems like the flash from a camera, so much has changed since that magical Spring of 2011. Loved ones have departed, children have grown, grey hair and reading glasses have made their acquaintance. Long gone are the days of telling my elementary school aged sons to cover their eyes whenever they’d cut to a scene with Tyrion Lannister in a brothel.
When the show was still young, I ran into a large selection of Game of Thrones figurines at the local Barnes & Noble. After looking over the many choices for sale, I was happy to see the two I decided to purchased that day go on to star in the show for years, right up until the very end: Tyrion and The Hound.
We’d debate possible outcomes while small talking over cocktails lakeside or go around the table taking turns answering “Which character would you be?” at holiday gatherings. No other show came close to having such depth of interaction. For that alone, I thank those involved in creating the best television show I’ve ever seen, making stars out of virtual nobodies and developing characters we will remember for a lifetime. Excellent writing, excellent casting, excellent production. Sunday nights were king. It will be missed.
“Stark’s win! TheeEEEeeEeEEeeEee Stark’s…WIN!”
Lucky for us, Sunday nights have always been King. (at least during football season)
Similar to debating the directions of a complex storyline, trying to gauge the impact that new coaching could have on a team may also fill the air when family and friends get together in my world. One of the best debates each year comes shortly after the NFL draft, and the differences of opinion when ranking the 2019 rookies has been as divided as ever.
With this in mind, I decided it would make sense to combine all seven of my dynasty rookie draft results and create an ADP (average draft position) from them. This particular ADP came with a $5K price tag. The lowest entry is a private $250 dynasty league filled with heavy hitters who play much higher stakes. Then there is The Arena, a $1K entry private league with the most dreadfully picked over waiver wire you can imagine. The remaining five are FFPC secured, consisting of a $1250, two $750, and two $500 entry level dynasty leagues. All seven are TE (1.5 PPR) Premium PPR leagues.
Rather than simply giving you my personal 2019 rookie rankings, I’ll give you even more.
Listen to everything; think for yourself.
By including a few players I intend to fade this season, I get the chance to give my opinions on why I plan to avoid them. Many respected opponents are valuing them highly, and I am fallible, so by putting on my trial lawyer clothes, I can act as both the prosecuting and defense attorney, and see if I can sway opinions one way or the other.
Hell, I’ll even play the roll of judge and jury and include a verdict on each player picked.
No, I am not catching DND. (Daenerys Nazi Disease) ;-)
Court is now in session.
1.01 JOSH JACOBS RB OAK
D.O.B. 02.11.1998 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.01 Latest 1.02
2018 12.85 FPPG (15 games) Alabama Crimson Tide (20 years old)
2017 7.02 FPPG (11) Alabama Crimson Tide (19)
2016 7.88 FPPG (14) Alabama Crimson Tide (18)
PROSECUTION
Pathetic production volume. Less than 13 (PPR, TE premium scoring) points per game in his best year. Only one 100+ yard rushing game in his Alabama career and zero in the past two seasons. Role player (only seven double digit carry games in his three year career) who did not separate from his fellow Crimson Tide RB stable mates.
Both teammates Damien Harris (6.4 yards per carry, 56.85 yards per game) and Najee Harris (6.5 ypc, 46.12 ypg) have better career rushing averages than Jacobs (5.9 ypc, 37.27 ypg). Only a 3-STAR recruit receiving a mere 8 offers. Spent two seasons as a bit player. Gets credit for scoring touchdowns, yet when breaking it down more closely, he was “gifted” many goal line chances (five of his most recent seven rushing touchdowns came from the 1-yard line, with the other two coming from the 2 and 3-yard line) that could have easily gone to his teammates with higher (5-STAR) pedigree and better production. Gets overvalued for his receiving prowess, yet only has 48 career receptions across 40 games played.
Kamara comps my ass. Kamara had almost triple that average, catching 74 passes in only 24 games with Tennessee. Kamara also scored 23 times in 24 games vs. Jacobs scoring 21 times in 40 games, plus I was able to draft Kamara a full round later at the beginning of the second round (2.01) in his rookie draft.
No breakout age (never broke out), unproven durability with a career high of 140 touches in a season (his only 100+ touch season), no college domination (out produced by teammates), so what about testing metrics? Nope. Josh supposedly ran a 4.63 second 40 yard dash (and an equally disappointing 112” Broad Jump) at his Alabama Pro Day, and you know what they say about Pro Day 40’s…
…add at least .07 sec to those handheld times, putting him in that ugly 4.70 range. He showed up to Alabama’s second Pro Day (favoritism, anyone?) and supposedly ran a 4.56 40, so adding the .07 brings it up to a still bad 4.62. You can see the lack of speed on his tape as well, often getting caught from behind on the rare occasion when he breaks a longer play.
DEFENSE
Proven goal line asset. Despite the short yardage gifts mentioned above padding his stats, Jacobs was quite an efficient scorer overall on a per touch basis. Excellent per catch receiving production across all three seasons, averaging almost 12 yards per catch. Has the size (5’10”, 220 lbs) and burst to break tackles. Large (10-1/8th inch) hands help with receiving chops as well as solid ball security. Young with very low mileage. Marketable face with a cool backstory of overcoming hardship. High draft pedigree (1st round, pick 24 overall) combined with 3-down back opportunity in Oakland.
VERDICT
Falls short or outright fails in too many categories I value when projecting NFL prospects. Most of what you hear from those who rank him the number one running back in this class sounds like a cut-up from those old-school scouts in the movie Moneyball, (but for football)... “He’s got a baseball body”, “The guy is an athlete. Big, fast, talented“ , “Top of my list”, “Five tool guy, good looking ball player”, “Beautiful swing, the ball explodes off his bat” etc.
When that is all I hear to justify his top ranking, I gladly get out of the way and let other leaguemates take the risk. It may bite me once in a while, but in a world of new metrics and positive expected value, passing on Jacobs at his price tag is the play I’m making. I had the chance to draft Jacobs twice (pick 1.01 and pick 1.02) and I went a different route or traded back instead.
1.02 N’KEAL HARRY WR NE
D.O.B. 12.17.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.01 Latest 1.03
2018 20.23 FPPG (12) Arizona State Sun Devils (20)
2017 21.59 FPPG (13) Arizona State Sun Devils (19)
2016 14.40 FPPG (12) Arizona State Sun Devils (18)
PROSECUTION
Sat out his final bowl game and did not participate in the 3-cone or shuttle drills at the Combine. Unknown post-Tom Brady QB on the horizon. I’m picking nits, prosecution rests.
DEFENSE
5-STAR high school recruit, #1 WR and 18th overall ranking in his class. Early breakout, leading the Sun Devils in receptions and touchdowns (and led all freshmen nationally) in his first season at ASU. Yards per catch and TD totals improved with each season as he dominated the production of his WR teammates. Like most on this list, he’s a young NFL rookie (true junior). Nice size (6’2” 228 lbs) strength (tied musclebound DK Metcalk with 27 bench reps of 225 lbs.) and speed (4.53 40) with explosive jumps (38.5” vert, 122” broad). High draft pedigree (1st round, pick 32 overall) and wide open opportunity with the Patriots. Charisma, swagger, marketable. High motor hustler.
VERDICT
I drafted Harry first overall (1.01) and at the (1.03) in leagues where I needed wide receiver depth. Actions speak louder than words.
1.03 MILES SANDERS RB PHI
D.O.B. 05.01.1997 (22) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.02 Latest 1.05
2018 16.87 FPPG (13) Penn State Nittany Lions (21)
2017 4.01 FPPG (10) Penn State Nittany Lions (20)
2016 3.76 FPPG (9) Penn State Nittany Lions (19)
PROSECUTION
Out played and relegated to a bit role behind Saquon Barkley for his first two seasons. Zero receiving touchdowns and a weak 5.63 yards per reception average over his last two seasons. Four fumbles lost in 2018 as well as a few stinker games when facing stronger opponents. Held to only one touchdown scored over his final six games combined.
DEFENSE
4-STAR HS recruit and #1 ranked RB in 2016 class. Pennsylvania’s Mr. Football stays in-state, going from a Pittsburgh area high school to Penn State to Philadelphia Eagles. Committed early to Penn State (the same year Saquon Barkley committed) with more offers (21 to 9) and a higher Rivals ranking (6.0 to 5.9) than Barkley. Excellent NFL Combine metrics across the board. High draft pedigree (2nd round) and the second running back drafted from his class. Showed the ability to handle an 18.76 touch per game workload. Has 3-down size and skill set that could separate and dominate touches for the Eagles.
VERDICT
My second ranked RB from this class. Fine tooth-combing his 2018 season gave me a little pause. Considered drafting Miles at pick 1.02, but traded back instead, and when he was still on the board at pick 1.04, I pulled the trigger. Miles gets to face off vs. Saquon twice per year, adding spice to the NYG/PHI rivalry. His skill set, production, draft capital and opportunity in a creative Eagles offense feels safe. In a fairly sketchy draft class, safe holds a little more weight than usual.
1.04 DAVID MONTGOMERY RB CHI
D.O.B. 06.07.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.03 Latest 1.05
2018 19.78 FPPG (12) Iowa State Cyclones (21)
2017 18.94 FPPG (13) Iowa State Cyclones (20)
2016 7.85 FPPG (12) Iowa State Cyclones (19)
PROSECUTION
A puzzling 2-STAR recruit (Rivals) receiving only 5 offers, despite an impressive high school career resulting in 6666 yards rushing and 91 touchdowns. Had a poor Combine, lowlighted by a 4.63 40-yard dash and a 28.5 inch vertical jump. Relies on volume for production and already has high mileage for his age. A weak 4.7 career yards per carry average at Iowa State. Zero career receiving touchdowns. Looks SLOW on film. Caught from behind over and over and over.
DEFENSE
Has experience as a dual threat high school quarterback and produced right away as a college freshman, making me think he can absorb a playbook quickly. Nice body type (222 lbs) to grind down a defense and has good hands (71 career receptions) with a solid (8.2) average per catch. Chicago traded up 14 spots to draft Montgomery as the 4th running back off the board. His combined skill set could potentially carve out a large workload with the Bears.
VERDICT
Although he moves fairly well and can break tackles, his lack of speed worries me the most. I just see a run-of-the-mill bruiser type RB who may have a hard time holding his lead role for long, and that is kind of important in dynasty. I did not draft him.
1.05 T.J. HOCKENSON TE DET
D.O.B. 07.03.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.04 Latest 1.09
2018 14.76 FPPG (13) Iowa Hawkeyes (21)
2017 8.60 FPPG (10) Iowa Hawkeyes (20)
PROSECUTION
3-STAR recruit with only 3 offers. Redshirted freshman season. Only one year of real production and even that was rivaled by tight end teammate Noah Fant. Not a big touchdown maker, with the afore mentioned Fant outscoring Hockenson 7 TD to 6 in 2018 and 11 TD to 3 in 2017. Noah Fant out-performed T.J. in almost every single (6 of 7) Combine test.
DEFENSE
Excellent blocking ability and strong route running is what separates Hockenson from the softer playing Fant. T.J.’s best fantasy season at Iowa (2018) was better than Fant’s best season. A first round and top eight overall draft pick to a Lions team lacking in both tight end and receiving talent. Opportunity galore. John Mackey Award winner for best college tight end. Could the former Patriots coach now have his own Gronkowski in Detroit?
VERDICT
In the running for safest dynasty rookie draft pick, Hockenson has the blocking chops to start immediately. A part of me wonders if it was slow playbook learning that inspired the redshirt season (and slower start to his first season), or the presence of George Kittle. Another part of me wonders “had George Kittle not broken out last year, would either Iowa tight end have been a first round selection?” I drafted him one time, but traded him straight up for RB Darrell Henderson post-draft. Love his long term upside, but waiting on tight ends to develop is a roster clogging drag.
1.06 NOAH FANT TE DEN
D.O.B. 11.20.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.06 Latest 1.09
2018 12.70 FPPG (12) Iowa Hawkeyes (21)
2017 13.36 FPPG (12) Iowa Hawkeyes (20)
2016 4.42 FPPG (6) Iowa Hawkeyes (19)
PROSECUTION
Has an element of softness to his game I worry about. Skipped Iowa’s Bowl game to focus on himself. Has plans to be an orthopedic surgeon. Not encouraging to read things like “hears footsteps”, “needs to get stronger”, “needs to get more competitive”, “Lacks grit”, “can’t fight through route contact”, etc. Took a back seat to Hockenson his final season. Only one touchdown over his final six games combined.
DEFENSE
Excellent NFL Combine. Scored 18 touchdowns over his last two seasons (24 games). Very fast for a TE (4.50 40 yard dash) who can out leap (39.5 inch vert) opponents. Drafted in the first round (20th overall) to a Bronco’s team with a system in place to feature his receiving strengths at tight end.
VERDICT
Landing in Denver’s tight end friendly system is a huge plus. He was being drafted too early for my taste, so I ended up with zero shares. The lack of toughness is a real downer for me, but he does seem to have that Jordan Reed, Evan Engram upside.
1.07 DARRELL HENDERSON RB LAR
D.O.B. 08.19.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.04 Latest 1.09
2018 29.95 FPPG (13) Memphis Tigers (21)
2017 19.00 FPPG (12) Memphis Tigers (20)
2016 10.76 FPPG (13) Memphis Tigers (19)
PROSECUTION
Played against weaker college programs. Smallish hands (8-5/8th inch). Stuck behind Todd Gurley on the depth chart. Only a 2-STAR recruit receiving a small handful (4) of offers despite breaking records in both “little league” and high school (5801 yards, 68 TD’s).
DEFENSE
My number one ranked running back (by far) in the 2019 draft. Had the most exciting highlights paired with the top production (almost 30 Fantasy Points Per Game) in this class. Great players dominate weaker opponents, and Darrell DOMINATED them for the past two seasons. Since 1956, Henderson sits at Number One (8.2) for NCAA career rushing yards per attempt (min 300 attempts). The Rams traded up 24 spots to get Darrell as the third RB selected in this draft. Added points for being drafted to a creative offense who have plans to use him immediately. Excellent receiver as well, posting a career line of 63 rec (more than Mecole Hardman’s career 60), with more yards (758), a better average (12.0) and more TD’s (8) than those of Josh Jacobs’ three year career. Explosive playmaker, scoring 44 times in 38 games.
VERDICT
Despite all of Darrell’s success, he remains humble and hungry. GOOD. I had hoped for a better landing spot, but all things considered, I’d have to say his prospects are sky high in Los Angeles. I drafted Henderson as early as the 1.04 pick, and managed to add him in 5 of 7 dynasty leagues (4 times drafted and one post-draft trade). He is a young lion (see photo above) and will leave his mark on NFL record books, just as he has at each level he’s played in.
1.08 D.K. METCALF WR SEA
D.O.B. 12.14.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.05 Latest 1.11
2018 16.13 FPPG (7) Ole Miss Rebels (20)
2017 12.13 FPPG (12) Ole Miss Rebels (19)
2016 7.65 FPPG (2) Ole Miss Rebels (18)
PROSECUTION
Season ending foot injury after two games his freshman season, and another season ending neck injury after seven games his redshirt sophomore season. Touchdown dependent fantasy scorer with limited route tree. Horrible 3-cone and shuttle agility scores at the Combine. Production looks good on a per-game basis, but looks below average when totaled. Possible one-trick pony. After being declared the number one WR by most pundits, he fell all the way to the bottom of the second round as the ninth WR drafted.
DEFENSE
4-STAR recruit after scoring 49 touchdowns in high school stays near home committing to Ole Miss. Very likeable personality. Incredible size (6’3”. 228 lbs) , strength (27 reps of 225 lbs), speed (4.33-40), and explosion (40.5” vert) at the NFL Combine. Impressive scoring (14 TD in 21 games) and yards per reception average (18.3) over his career. Seattle traded up 13 spots for him. Excellent landing spot paired with Russell Wilson and his elite deep ball.
VERDICT
Difficult projection. Could be a solid bestball type touchdown dependent deep threat, or could develop (still very young) into much more. Has a wide open door of opportunity with the post-draft retirement of WR Doug Baldwin. I tend to believe your skills are honed BEFORE you enter the NFL, not after. I did not draft him, but admit as time passes and I read the stories about him putting in the extra work after practice, etc…he is growing on me.
1.09 A.J. BROWN WR TEN
D.O.B. 06.30.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.03 Latest 1.12
2018 21.08 FPPG (12) Ole Miss Rebels (21)
2017 24.20 FPPG (11) Ole Miss Rebels (20)
2016 7.47 FPPG (11) Ole Miss Rebels (19)
PROSECUTION
Do any of these teams (aside from Vandy) seem worthy of playing against anyone in the SEC outside of a tuneup game?
Not Alabama, but the South Alabama Jaguars?
Not Tennesse, but rather the University of Tennesse at Martin Skyhawks?
Not Illinois, but The South Illinois Salukis?
Not LSU, but instead the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns?
How about the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks?
Maybe the Kent State Golden Flashes?
…and the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Over the past two seasons, in the 8 games out of 23 (33%) that Mr. Arthur James Brown played the above clowns, he produced more than half (52%) of his total receiving yards! He also produced 44% of his total receptions and a mind blowing 70% of his total touchdowns off of these extremely overmatched nobodies. That stat padding worries me a bit.
He celebrated breaking the sub 4.50 second 40 yard dash like it was a complete surprise and the first time he’d ever done so. Had very poor overall results in his last four games vs. Alabama and LSU.
Outside of this, it is pretty hard to find many flaws in his game.
DEFENSE
4-STAR recruit stayed in home state. Committed to Ole Miss as both a football and baseball player and was drafted late (19th round) by the San Diego Padres. Solid size and NFL Combine metrics. Two years of excellent production totals. Strong route runner who can threaten the entire field. Fourth receiver off the board in a strong WR draft class.
VERDICT
Has a very pro-ready game. Seems to give off a little Diva vibe which I tend to worry about. Landed in a fairly poor spot for a wide receiver. Upside limited behind former first rounder and 5th overall pick Corey Davis. At the mercy of QB Marcus Mariota’s development and the run-heavy scheme in Tennessee. I ranked A.J. Brown as my 7th best overall player and 4th best WR pre-NFL Draft. I do not have any of his dynasty shares mainly due to landing spot and rookie draft price, but his upside is intriguing.
1.10 PARRIS CAMPBELL WR IND
D.O.B. 07.16.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.07 Latest 2.02
2018 19.34 FPPG (14) Ohio State Buckeyes (21)
2017 10.43 FPPG (13) Ohio State Buckeyes (20)
2016 4.56 FPPG (8) Ohio State Buckeyes (19)
PROSECUTION
Late breakout age. Only one season of noteworthy production. Didn’t truly dominate as a senior, as QB Dwayne Haskins was slinging the ball all over. Was a 4-STAR recruit listed as “Athlete” (not WR), as it seems he played more running back in high school. Received only 4 offers. Surprised some when he fell to the late 2nd round as the 7th WR drafted.
DEFENSE
Scored 12 touchdowns in 14 games last year. Blew up the Combine with a 4.31-40, a 40-inch vert, a 135-inch broad jump and a 4.03 short shuttle showing outstanding athleticism. Landed in one of the most coveted spots for a WR, getting paired with QB Andrew Luck in Indianapolis. Like the majority of the players on this list, he stayed in-state from high school to college. Believed to have Olympic level speed, had he not dedicated himself to football.
VERDICT
Won the wide receiver lotto landing with the Colts. T.Y. Hilton is getting older, so there is a punters chance at claiming the WR1 role eventually, but as a respected friend mentioned, “with a team that drafts as well as the Colts do, with analytics and specialists for each position, you gotta wonder what kind of role he can carve out, and worry about who they’ll draft at wideout in the next few drafts.” I do not have any shares, even at his reasonable price, but I’ll be watching closely to see how things shake out in Indy. That team is on the rise.
1.11 DEEBO SAMUEL WR SF
D.O.B. 01.15.1996 (23) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.07 Latest 2.06
2018 18.23 FPPG (12) South Carolina Gamecocks (22)
2017 22.33 FPPG (3) South Carolina Gamecocks (21)
2016 18.91 FPPG (10) South Carolina Gamecocks (20)
PROSECUTION
The oldest player on this list by almost two years after coming out as a redshirt senior. 3-STAR recruit with 9 offers. Struggled with hamstring injuries as a redshirt freshman, only playing in five games. Suffered a season ending injury week three as a redshirt junior, breaking his right leg (fibula) on an awkward tackle. Never really dominated, as he always had a teammate WR with stats in the same ballpark as his.
DEFENSE
Finally healthy, Deebo had his breakout season as a redshirt senior scoring 11 touchdowns in 12 games. His Fantasy Points Per Game (PPR) were fairly consistent (and solid) across his final three seasons. (see above). Impressive Combine numbers across the board with nice speed, jumps, and 10-inch mitts. Major draft capital as the 3rd WR off the board in the very early 2nd round (36th overall). Landed in a prime location with little comp for the lead role in San Francisco.
VERDICT
Got a major boost with both draft capital (just missing the 1st round) and landing spot. The 49ers have high hopes for 2019, and Garoppolo needs a better WR1 than what they’ve been trotting out for the last few years. Deebo has the well rounded game to fill a large role right away. He’s even on my redraft radar.
1.12 MECOLE HARDMAN WR KC
D.O.B. 03.12.1998 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.08 Latest 2.03
2018 9.64 FPPG (14) Georgia Bulldogs (20)
2017 7.26 FPPG (15) Georgia Bulldogs (19)
PROSECUTION
One trick pony deep threat with only one career game with more than four receptions. Total surprise pick that had the NFL Draft announcers baffled and scrambling for notes. One career 100+ yard receiving game. Wasn’t even statistically the top WR on his team. Pathetic production totals averaging 2 receptions for 33 yards over his final two seasons.
DEFENSE
5-STAR “Athlete” (not a WR) out of high school receiving a whopping 29 offers as a defensive cornerback with track and field speed. Ran the lead leg of Georgia’s 4x100m relay. Fifth wide receiver drafted to the hottest destination around. Elite return man, sitting atop the NCAA leaders in yards per punt return (20.1) in 2018. Extreme “D.K. Metcalf” speed (4.33-40) at the Combine. Ran a 10.64-100m dash in high school. The youngest player on this list and still learning the position after not playing wide receiver in high school and being drafted to Georgia as a defensive back.
VERDICT
It feels a bit like Kansas City wanted to at least replace Tyreek Hill’s punt return and deep threat ability, with anything they get from Mecole as a well rounded wide receiver a potential bonus. Excellent landing spot paired with QB Patrick Mahomes, but I do not buy the hype, have zero dynasty shares, and don’t feel I’m missing out on much. I have paired him a few times with Tyreek Hill and Demarcus Robinson though, as a Footballguys Players Championship redraft strategy, so he holds my interest plenty.
That wraps up my personal opinions on those players being drafted earliest in my seven dynasty leagues.
Very interested to see how these opinions will evolve over time with more and more information.
The game of dynasty fantasy football never stagnates, leading to the smallest of advantages for those who dig the deepest.
I guess that’s why it remains so fresh and challenging.
Thanks for reading and I hope you have a most excellent Memorial Day weekend!