Scouting the second round of rookies.
With all that squinting, I wonder if they use their nose edge as the finish line.
The life of an NFL scout.
On the one hand (and especially if you are young and single) it seems glamorous and exotic. Anonymously traveling city-to-city, enjoying that mint-on-pillow hotel life. Hard work by day and maybe a little local brew tasting by night, exchanging notes (and stories) with fellow talent evaluators. The freedom of the road.
On the other hand, it could be long stretches of time away from family and friends. Meal after meal eating out, and the uncomfortable lack of trust in a restaurant’s food sourcing. Video-chatting with your wife and young children as they pepper you with the “When will you be coming home?” question month after month. Living out of a few small bags for weeks on end with the occasional cockroach sighting, or motel room door that won’t fully close correctly.
Laundry day.
Maybe sometime down the line, if I catch a severe case of “empty nest” fever.
Come to think of it, the three NFL scouts I can easily name all had to advance upward and brake free from scout anonymity in order to get on my radar. One became an NFL GM (Scot McCloughan) and the other two became high profile media analysts and sportswriters (Bucky Brooks and Daniel Jeremiah).
For the passionate few, the upward mobility is real. Many high profile jobs toward the very top of NFL hierarchies are occupied by former scouts. Take a look through the career paths of the many Directors of Player Personnel, Directors of Football Operations, Executive Vice Presidents and General Managers to find out for yourself.
A scout’s income may be less than you’d think, but having that up close and personal access to NFL players, coaches, executives and events would be flat out priceless.
In a similar vein to scouting, the offseason for a dedicated dynasty GM has withered over time.
As a rookie dynasty GM, I’d enjoy the Superbowl, then pretty much shut it down for a few months.
I’d switch to another sport for entertainment, and then pick it back up when the deadline to re-up dues for the new season approached.
By doing so, I’d miss out on a very active trading season. I realized that my vacation from league engagement caused harm. Instead of trading for players that other owners were shedding, I’d find out those players were now on teams that coveted such players and had recently traded for them, causing their prices to rise.
Not to mention that by taking time away, I’d miss out on one of the juiciest windows of opportunity each year, when new owners would purchase an orphan and proceed to go on a trading spree in order to mold the new team to his often very different taste.
Plus, there’s nothing worse than sending out legit trade offers and watching them die on the vine, expiring without response while other owners are simply missing in action.
With all of this in mind, it is time to continue delving in to the second round of an exclusive ADP set by my seven dynasty draft results.
I’ve re-emerged from the chamber with robe and gavel and will settle back in presiding from the bench.
Offseason? Bah.
2.01 HAKEEM BUTLER WR ARI
D.O.B. 05.16.1996 (23) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.11 Latest 2.05
2018 18.91 FPPG (13 games) Iowa State Cyclones (22 years old)
2017 11.75 FPPG (13) Iowa State Cyclones (21)
2016 4.30 FPPG (8) Iowa State Cyclones (20)
PROSECUTION
Only a 2-STAR recruit, with possible poor study habits or learning speed. Bad grades threatened his ability to qualify for college and may have factored into his redshirt season. Losing his mother to cancer while in the middle of high school and subsequently moving across the country may have also factored in greatly to the lack of focus and poor grades. Late bloomer with only one noteworthy season of production. Not the cleanest route runner with a reputation for concentration drops. After being hyped by many in the fantasy football industry, his free fall into Day 3 of the NFL Draft was stunning.
DEFENSE
Excellent size (6’5”, 227 lbs) length (35 1/4” arms and 10 3/4” hands) and speed (4.48-40). Elite (21.97) yards per catch average, finishing 3rd in the nation, ahead of all of the “big name” speed players (McLaurin, Jeudy, Lamb, Marquise Brown). Thoroughly dominated the production of his teammates last season. If you chopped Butler’s 2018 receiving yards into three equal parts, then removed two of those parts, the remaining part would have led the Cyclones in receiving. Impressive body control, yards after catch ability and a nose for the endzone.
VERDICT
Drafted to one of the hottest wideout destinations landing in Arizona, with the bonus of being roommates with QB Kyler Murray during OTA’s. Has a body type/skill set that stands out on the Cardinals roster. My number one ranked dynasty rookie pre-draft lost some of his luster with the fall to day three. I held strong, and adjusted to the field for when I thought the time was right to draft him in rookie drafts, nabbing him in four-of-seven leagues. The sky is the limit for Kingsbury’s new offense, and having a potentially large piece of it is exciting.
2.02 MARQUISE BROWN WR BAL
D.O.B. 06.04.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.12 Latest 2.06
2018 22.23 FPPG (12) Oklahoma Sooners (21)
2017 16.04 FPPG (13) Oklahoma Sooners (20)
2016 18.57 FPPG (10) College of the Canyons Cougars (Junior College) (19)
PROSECUTION
Extremely undersized (graduated at 130 lbs) with poor grades, he went unrecruited out of high school. After a standout season playing for a local community college, he received a 4-STAR rating from Rivals. (I was unaware that post-HS Rivals ratings took place) Had the great fortune of playing at Oklahoma with quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray who would go on to become back-to-back Heisman Trophy winners and back-to-back overall number one picks in the NFL draft. Did not dominate production above teammates. Deep threat artist lacking contested catch ability. Even as bulked up (see photo above) as his slight frame will allow (166 lbs), he still fails to reach my minimum weight to thrive in the NFL. Paired with a quarterback not known for tight spirals or deep ball accuracy.
DEFENSE
Elite speed. Proven NCAA level production. First wide receiver selected in the 2019 Draft. Electric after the catch.
VERDICT
A darling for bestball leagues where you never have to risk a starting slot on him. Many will point the blame for his future lack of NFL production volume on landing in Baltimore. I disagree. I think his upside is capped by his size, regardless of where he plays. Exciting NFL wideout who will make plenty of splash plays at the next level, but deep threats are a dime a dozen. I have zero dynasty shares. Goes from playing with two of the most accurate QB’s in all of college football, to playing with one of the least accurate QB’s in the NFL.
Dare I say, “Coming to a waiver wire near you.”
2.03 KYLER MURRAY QB ARI
D.O.B. 08.07.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.12 Latest 2.10
2018 39.36 FPPG (14) Oklahoma Sooners (21)
2017 6.30 FPPG (7) Oklahoma Sooners (20)
2015 10.85 FPPG (8) Texas A&M Aggies (18)*
PROSECUTION
Sat out his 2016 season as a redshirt after transferring colleges, and was blocked by Baker Mayfield. Allowed plenty of smoke to cloud the opinions on whether his love was greater for baseball or football. Sat out NFL Combine testing, despite being healthy. Only one season of noteworthy production.
DEFENSE
A 4-STAR dual threat QB who went 42-0 as a starter, winning three straight Texas high school state championships. Heisman Trophy winner as best player in college, drafted number one overall. Pinpoint accuracy. Second player to join the 4000/1000 club. (Deshaun Watson)
Both his passing stats (4361 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) and rushing stats (1001 yards, 7.2 ypc average, 12 TD) were elite.
Perfectly matched with a coach who knows how to use him, and surrounded by talent at each position.
VERDICT
Instant high impact player for fantasy football. Has all the pieces in place to reset the bar on what a rookie QB can accomplish at the NFL level. His potential is matched by his confidence. I have gone hard after Kyler in both dynasty rookie drafts (3 of 7 leagues) as well as redraft (4 of 5 Footballguys Players Championship leagues and 1 of 2 RTS Fantasy Championship leagues).
All in.
2.04 DEVIN SINGLETARY RB BUF
D.O.B. 09.03.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 1.10 Latest 2.09
2018 23.03 FPPG (12) Florida Atlantic Owls (21)
2017 30.61 FPPG (14) Florida Atlantic Owls (20)
2016 18.03 FPPG (12) Florida Atlantic Owls (19)
PROSECUTION
Only a 2-STAR recruit. Had such a poor combine, you wonder if he was injured. Slow in both straight line and agility drills. Measured on the smaller side (5‘7”, 203 lbs) with short arms and small hands.
DEFENSE
Just silly-good production. A rare non-QB member of the 30 FPPG Club. Took over in the late second half of the season as a true freshman and averaged over 200 yards from scrimmage and scored 10 touchdowns over his final four games. Followed that up with insane sophomore and junior seasons, combining for 3500 scrimmage yards and 55 touchdowns! One of very few to remind me of Barry Sanders with his vision and how well he changes directions. Quick churning feet live up the the nickname “Motor” and he did not look slow to me on film.
VERDICT
Despite having his draft stock plunge following the NFL Combine, the Bills held strong and made Singletary an early 3rd round selection (one pick after David Montgomery) and the 5th RB off the board. I have one share in dynasty and look forward to seeing what he can do. I believe his skill set will translate smoothly to the NFL level. Wide open opportunity long term, with a solid chance at early season production. Positive whispers from mini-camp has his price on the rise.
2.05 ANDY ISABELLA WR ARI
D.O.B. 11.18.1996 (22) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 2.03 Latest 2.08
2018 30.31 FPPG (12) Massachusetts Minutemen (21)
2017 20.54 FPPG (12) Massachusetts Minutemen (20)
2016 16.18 FPPG (12) Massachusetts Minutemen (19)
PROSECUTION
Smaller than ideal, with a limited catch radius and smaller hands, leading him to lean more on body catching and double clutching. Listed primarily as a running back in high school. Very lightly recruited (2-STAR) due to size, and listed as “Athlete” vs. WR.
DEFENSE
Thoroughly dominated his teammate’s receiving production at UMass, out-catching, out-yarding and out-scoring the nearest competitor 102 receptions-to-28, 1698 yards-to-419, and 13 receiving touchdowns-to-4 last year. Led all of college football in receiving yards and receiving yards per game (141.5), dominating the second place finisher by 24 yards per game.
Andy also has the rare WR trait of rushing success at the college level. Many, MANY wide receivers are given designed run plays with the hope that their elite speed or elusiveness will win the day, but the vast majority have pathetic results. Isabella on the other hand has turned his 40 career attempts into 342 yards, for a very respectable 8.6 yards per carry average and 2 TD.
Elite speed (4.31-40) with a strong overall resume and combine. A proud card-carrying member of the 30 FPPG Club. His second round draft capital and ideal landing spot are both a plus.
VERDICT
A high motor grinder who’s had to work hard for each level of success. Humble and quiet off the field, he lets his training habits and on-field production do the talking. Isabella is someone I ranked higher than most, and had plans to draft often in dynasty rookie drafts, but only managed to land him in one league. I’ve been aggressively drafting him in redraft as part of a dynamic new Cardinal offense. I’m unsure of how quickly he will have an impact at the NFL level, but his long term outlook is bright.
2.06 J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE WR PHI
D.O.B. 12.31.1996 (23) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 2.02 Latest 2.10
2018 21.08 FPPG (12) Stanford Cardinals (22)
2017 16.37 FPPG (11) Stanford Cardinals (21)
2016 10.21 FPPG (9) Stanford Cardinals (20)
PROSECUTION
Slightly older than most of the top ranked rookies, thanks to a redshirt season at Stanford. Weakish Pro Day numbers when you add the .07 to those hand timed 40’s. His jumps (34” vert, 118” broad) were on the lower edge of what you want, and the 4.49 hand times get adjusted up to a reasonable 4.56 second 40. I respect his scoring prowess, but wasn’t impressed by his game film. Landed in a tricky spot to forecast with the Eagles.
DEFENSE
Excellent size (6’2”, 225 lbs) with a solid per-catch average (16.4) and nose for the endzone (28 TD in 33 games). Gets a “plus” rating on the mental side being a Stanford alum. Improved his stats across the board each season. Strong catch radius with the ability to get down and secure low throws. Positive draft capital as a second round selection.
VERDICT
Admittedly a difficult projection. Many rank him higher than I do, so I feel out on an island by saying he seems more likely to stick in the NFL as just another guy.
2.07 IRV SMITH JR. TE MIN
D.O.B. 08.09.1998 (20) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 2.04 Latest 2.08
2018 11.93 FPPG (15) Alabama Crimson Tide (20)
2017 5.76 FPPG (9) Alabama Crimson Tide (19)
PROSECUTION
Now at least partially blocked after Kyle Rudolph’s new contract extension. Production for tight ends is usually quite weak in college, but Smith’s numbers (as a true junior) in both yards per reception (16.1) and touchdowns (7) were better than the most productive two seasons from former Alabama TE teammate O.J. Howard (15.8, 2 TD as a Junior and 13.2, 3 TD as a Senior). A kid named Tua and his 43 passing touchdowns vs. the previous highs in the upper 20’s may have factored in plenty. Undersized (6’2” and 242 lbs) for his position. Still inexperienced at mastering the nuance needed at the next level.
DEFENSE
Impressive movement and speed. Like I’ve mentioned previously, I take the Gauntlet Drill at the NFL Combine very seriously for projecting the TE position, and Irv had some of its better runs. Mid-second round draft capital, and rare breakaway speed for a TE, with scoring plays from 68 and 76 yards out. He’s still just a pup, entering training camp as a 20 year old.
VERDICT
The Rudolph contract throws some water on his hype, but he’s still so young and raw that he could use a full season of experience before deployment in fantasy. I drafted him twice in dynasty and believe he’ll be well worth the wait.
2.08 DAMIEN HARRIS RB NE
D.O.B. 02.11.1997 (22) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 2.02 Latest 2.10
2018 12.27 FPPG (15) Alabama Crimson Tide (21)
2017 13.36 FPPG (14) Alabama Crimson Tide (20)
2016 10.11 FPPG (15) Alabama Crimson Tide (19)
PROSECUTION
With the way Alabama recruits talent, it seems they spread the wealth vs. lean on players, resulting in less-than-stellar production totals. Gives you a little chicken vs. egg debate wondering if the offensive line is just so damn good it trickles down. Harris doesn’t really wow you with anything specifically, but at the same time it is hard to tear apart any of his well rounded game.
DEFENSE
After a high school career totaling 6748 rushing yards and 122 touchdowns, Harris was given a 5-STAR Rivals rating and ranked as the number one RB recruit in his class. He followed that with a solid 6.4 yards per carry (career) average in the SEC, finishing each of the past three seasons with over 1000 yards from scrimmage. Averaged 10 touchdowns over his past two years. Has reasonable speed (4.57-40) with nice burst (37” vert). Finished his sophomore and junior seasons averaging more than 7 yards per touch (over 7 yards per carry and over 7 yards per reception in each).
VERDICT
Count me as one who feels Damien Harris is a direct threat to the fantasy upside of Sony Michel. I ended up with one share in dynasty, and intend to flip him in trade, as I dislike playing the Patriot’s “Shell Game” when it comes to predicting their ever-evolving opponent-specific game plans.
2.09 JUSTICE HILL RB BAL
D.O.B. 11.14.1997 (21) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 2.05 Latest 3.02
2018 16.68 FPPG (10) Oklahoma State Cowboys (21)
2017 22.58 FPPG (13) Oklahoma State Cowboys (20)
2016 12.29 FPPG (13) Oklahoma State Cowboys (19)
PROSECUTION
Regressed statistically his junior year in part due to missing two games with a rib injury and skipping their Bowl game to focus on himself. A tad light (198 lbs) for the next level. Redshirt freshman RB Chuba Hubbard had better per-touch numbers last year, possibly influencing the early exit to go pro. It matters less for running backs, but 4th round draft capital seldom comes with a long leash.
DEFENSE
After scoring 32 touchdowns as a senior in high school, he took over the lead back role as a true freshman at Oklahoma State, leading the nation in rushing yards from a freshman. His early breakout pushed former teammate (SEA RB) Chris Carson into a time share. Tore up the Combine with elite 40 time (4.40 flat) and burst (40” vert and 130” broad). Interesting all-around game including a 31 reception season.
VERDICT
His Combine boosted his stock significantly, and landing in Baltimore has some long term upside. I ended up with no shares, but he is definitely on my radar. He impressed me on tape, and I’ve even added him in later rounds of bestball drafts due to his interesting potential.
2.10 JACE STERNBERGER TE GB
D.O.B. 06.26.1996 (22) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 2.03 Latest 3.07
2018 16.58 FPPG (13) Texas A&M Aggies (22)
2017 0.00 FPPG (0) Transfer season (21)
2016 2.00 FPPG (1) Kansas Jayhawks (20)
PROSECUTION
After redshirting and later transferring due to lack of involvement, his first three seasons in college resulted in virtually nothing statistically. Had a mediocre combine that paints the picture of just an average athlete in every way. Was the 6th TE selected in this draft.
DEFENSE
Pulled off the Big Sombrero, leading Texas A&M in all four receiving categories (rec, rec yards, rec avg, and rec TD’s). Definitely made the correct call to transfer in order to show off his skills. His 832 receiving yards ranked 2nd overall in the nation by a TE, and his 10 TD tied a school record for TD’s by a tight end. Potentially sweet landing spot paired with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.
VERDICT
The mixed weaker signals from his average combine (failed to finish in the top 5 vs. fellow TE’s in any of his seven events) and late breakout seem to lose the battle for projecting him forward after factoring in his domination and excellent single season of production. 17.3 yards per reception and 10 touchdowns in the SEC is something I just cannot look past. Impressive. I have one share of Jace, and will most likely need to show a little patience as he slowly develops.
2.11 ALEXANDER MATTISON RB MIN
D.O.B. 06.19.1998 (20) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 2.10 Latest 3.11
2018 22.14 FPPG (13) Boise State Broncos (20)
2017 17.36 FPPG (14) Boise State Broncos (19)
2016 6.11 FPPG (11) Boise State Broncos (18)
PROSECUTION
Never a good sign when you fail to average more than 5.0 yards per carry at the collegiate level. His 4.9 career ypc combined with a lackluster 40 yard dash (4.67) paints the picture of a player who needs volume to succeed. Even his 27 receptions in 2018 looks more like a negative to me when he averaged a mere 6.4 per catch with zero receiving touchdowns.
DEFENSE
Nice scoring ability (30 TD in last 27 games), but we’ve seen that song and dance before from recent Boise State backs Jeremy McNichols and Jay Ajayi who had much better numbers, yet have semi-busted at the NFL level. Showed nice durability over his career, with the above mentioned receiving chops, averaging 27.5 receptions per year the past two seasons.
VERDICT
With the exodus of Latavius Murray, Mattison is in line to take the backup/complementary role behind Dalvin Cook in what looks to be an improved offense. His draft capital doesn’t guarantee much should they add another back in the future. Despite a heavy dynasty investment in Dalvin Cook, Mattison’s fairly pricey draft cost made it difficult for me to add him and I only ended up with a single share. The juicy combination of an emerging running system paired with a universally perceived-to-be (though not by me) fragile starter had the snipers out in full force.
2.12 JOSH OLIVER TE JAC
D.O.B. 03.21.1997 (22) Dynasty rookie draft range: Earliest 2.12 Latest 4.03
2018 14.91 FPPG (12) San Jose State Spartans (21)
2017 8.81 FPPG (10) San Jose State Spartans (20)
2016 4.37 FPPG (3) San Jose State Spartans (19)
PROSECUTION
Only a 2-STAR recruit, with one noteworthy season of production. Recruited to San Jose State as a pass rusher/linebacker, then converted to TE due to injuries. Still learning the position, and is behind in blocking development.
DEFENSE
Led the Spartans in receptions as a senior, and placed second as a junior. Nice mix of body control, catch radius, route running, hands catching and concentration through contact. Early 3rd round draft capital as the 5th TE drafted from a deep class. Landed with ex-Eagles QB Nick Foles who knows how to use his tight ends. Jacksonville’s new Offensive Coordinator John DeFilippo also has some Eagles influence, as well as some San Jose State roots, being the OC there back in 2011.
VERDICT
Seems like the stars have aligned for Josh Oliver landing with the Jaguars. Plenty of opportunity to earn the number one TE role. His talent and lower cost in rookie drafts allowed me to stock up, adding him in 5 of my 7 dynasty leagues. I’ve also placed him high on my redraft list of late round targets, adding him in a very high percentage of bestball and mid-stakes championship leagues as I deploy a “Wait on TE” draft strategy. My gut screams to add this guy at such a discount price.
That wraps up my final installment of rookie thoughts for 2019.
The first two rounds of this “$5K ADP” pretty well covered those players who interested me most.
Like Spring soon turning to Summer, the time has also come to switch from dynasty into redraft mode.
Looking forward to breaking down who I’m targeting and when as we attack some big money mid-stakes ($300) championship leagues in the weeks to come.
I’ve already got my feet wet, but will wait until I have a larger sample worthy of analysis.
The always evolving puzzle keeps rocking on.
Thanks for sharing in the experience!