Peering into the Palantír (PART III)
Peering into the Palantír (PART III)
It was recently brought to my attention (by my youngest son) that this website has a bit too much of an unintended Bait & Switchiness to it.
“Just look at your front page, Dad. You have to toggle all the way down to the Mount Rushmore picture to see anything that resembles football.”
For a site that is heavy on fantasy football content, to the casual observer it may appear much more like a fantasy films blog.
Note taken.
With the NFL Draft only three days away, time is running short to get those pre-draft opinions time-stamped. Some will look brilliant, others may hit near their marks, and a few may become cringe-worthy regrets soon enough.
But, as the great Dan Pena says…
“I may be wrong - but I’m never in doubt!
Never, ever second-guess yourself.
-Dan Pena”
In this final part in the series, I will be scouting out the more favorable landing spots for the tight end position.
Let’s dig right in.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
TE Ricky Seals-Jones was a 4-Star (Rivals, 5-Star rating from 247) recruit coming out of high school, and got to play with teammate Christian Kirk and potential teammate Kyler Murray when together at Texas A&M in 2015. I’m guessing his “tweener” size/speed had Rivals listing him as “athlete” vs. WR or TE. He was listed as a WR at the NFL Combine, but tested much more like a TE, and went undrafted. He popped a bit with 3 touchdowns and a 16.8 yards per catch average on limited use as a rookie, but then flopped when given more of a role last year. This is a roundabout way of saying the Cardinals have a Help Wanted ad open for any TE they may call out on Draft Day.
BUFFALO BILLS
There is an easy path to TE targets in Buffalo, but the upside looks more like downside. Not much to compete with at WR either, so a top notch TE could potentially carve out a nice role pending the Bills commit to drafting one early.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
We’ve seen the Groundhog’s Day (great movie) career of Tyler Eifert enough to no longer trust his impact. This team should be considering a youth movement rebuild, and a fresh body at TE would be a welcome addition.
DALLAS COWBOYS
When the positional need is so strong that a 37 year old Jason Witten unretires to help fill it, well, it is still strong. Dallas has been trying to draft his successor to no avail, but this years crop could be just what they’ve been waiting for.
DENVER BRONCOS
Denver has been spending 3rd-to-5th round draft capital year after year trying to hit on tight end. So far they’ve been misses, but perhaps they can reap some returns should health cooperate for once. I’d consider this a plus landing spot.
DETROIT LIONS
It says a bit about how the TE is used in Detroit when Eric Ebron finally escapes and promptly sets career highs across the board as a part time starter in Indianapolis. Matthew Stafford has upper level NFL QB talent, and there is little standing in the way of some workload here. What more could you ask for?
GREEN BAY PACKERS
TE Jimmy Graham has lost a few steps with age, yet still managed to place second in targets for Green Bay last year. Aaron Rodgers is elite, and TE is definitely in the mix of higher priority long term needs for the Packers. A young seam-splitting tight end could really blow up here.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Due to a handful of injuries, replacement level TE Ryan Griffin surprisingly placed third in targets for the Texans in 2018.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
There is nothing standing in the way at TE in Jacksonville. QB Nick Foles didn’t miss a beat taking over for Carson Wentz the past two seasons in Philadelphia, and TE Zach Ertz coincidentally had his best two years, crushing his career highs in 2018 with 156 targets and 116 receptions. (Sell high!) On paper, it doesn’t seem like the greatest landing spot for a TE in this draft class, but it could be one in reality.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This is the Motherload of landing spots for the 2019 TE class. New England signed TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins this offseason to help fill Gronk’s shoes, but with only a measly $50K of his contract being guaranteed, he is no threat. QB Tom Brady relies more on his accuracy and those short-to-medium range TE routes are right up his alley. The Patriots had no issues thrusting their two freshly drafted TE’s into the mix back in 2010 when they combined for 123 targets, 87 receptions, 1109 yards and 16 touchdowns AS ROOKIES! They are currently thin at wideout as well, so the sky is the limit here.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Chucky went on record last offseason saying he planned to move TE Jared Cook all over and feature him in the passing game. He was true to his word, peppering Cook with a team leading 101 targets as he set career highs across the board in his age 31 season. Cook parlayed that toward a fat payday in New Orleans, opening up a gaping hole a tight end for this rookie crop to fill. The new alpha WR in town will surely tamper down that target upside, but Gruden clearly showed he still knows how to use the position.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Seattle has spent a 3rd and 4th rounder recently on tight end, as well as giving Jimmy Graham a long test drive, but their TE cupboard is currently quite bare. When Graham was a Seahawk, he had three consecutive seasons as their #2 target, so landing here with QB Russell Wilson could be a major win. I suspect Seattle will be upgrading their receiving targets this draft, and adding a “more early than late” TE and WR should be on the menu.
That wraps up my “Spring’s Hot Destinations” series on favorable landing spots for this 2019 draft class.
Now the fun part.
Trying to place the “consensus top rated” as well as my personal favorite players from this rookie crop with their ideal team fit.
I almost put an “s” in parenthesis after “fit” in order to place more than one team with the following players, but think it would be more realistic (and much more difficult) to only allow myself a single “ideal” landing spot per player.
Here we go!
Downtown Nashville
QUARTERBACKS
Kyler Murray: Arizona Cardinals
Dwayne Haskins: New York Giants
Will Grier: Cincinnati Bengals
Drew Lock: Miami Dolphins
Daniel Jones: Washington Redskins
RUNNING BACKS
Darrell Henderson: Kansas City Chiefs
Miles Sanders: Houston Texans
Devin Singletary: Philadelphia Eagles
Treyveon Williams: Baltimore Ravens
Josh Jacobs: Oakland Raiders
Damien Harris: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
David Montgomery: Miami Dolphins
Rodney Anderson: Atlanta Falcons
Justice Hill: Buffalo Bills
WIDE RECEIVERS
Hakeem Butler: Indianapolis Colts
N’Keal Harry: San Francisco 49ers
Andy Isabella: Kansas City Chiefs
AJ Brown: Arizona Cardinals
DK Metcalf: Baltimore Ravens
Marquise Brown: Buffalo Bills
Paris Campbell: Jacksonville Jaguars
Deebo Samuel: Green Bay Packers
JJ Arcega-Whiteside: Seattle Seahawks
Emanuel Hall: Pittsburgh Steelers
David Sills: New England Patriots
Miles Boykin: Philadelphia Eagles
Kelvin Harmon: New York Giants
TIGHT ENDS
TJ Hockenson: Jacksonville Jaguars
Kahale Warring: New England Patriots
Noah Fant: Green Bay Packers
Irv Smith: Seattle Seahawks
Jace Sternberger: Dallas Cowboys
Caleb Wilson: Detroit Lions
Well there you have it!
Plenty of controversial picks worthy of debate.
Just TWO MORE DAYS to wait before the 2019 NFL DRAFT.
Let the case study begin!
There will be loads of artwork to do and the post-draft re-rankings will be epic!
Thanks for checking in and I’ll see you real soon!