Peering into the Palantír (PART II)
Count me as one who would decline a free look into a Palantír.
I enjoy the surprises as life unfolds like a daily gift.
If what it showed was actually the future, then all I could do to change that would be in vain.
Hell, I don’t even like to know what tomorrow will bring, let alone the entirety of what comes after that.
“But the worst touristification is the life we moderns have to lead in captivity, during our leisure hours: Friday night opera, scheduled parties, scheduled laughs. Again, golden jail. This “goal-driven” attitude hurts deeply inside my existential self.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder ”
Now one drawback to a fairly unscheduled life is that laziness has a tendency to creep in.
Hence the longer and random gaps between articles, scattering back almost a full year now on this site.
I’ve recently embraced “getting out of my comfort zone” so along with opening my mind by listening to (often opposite) opposing views on all things, I’m guessing I’ll be adding more schedule to my life, as that definitely makes me uncomfortable.
Another thing that makes me uncomfortable was how I forgot to mention the Chicago Bears as a sweet spot for running backs to land in my last article. I got wrapped up scanning the 2019 draft order, and forgot that the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints (all three having zero need at RB) and Chicago Bears were missing 1st round picks.
RB Tarik Cohen is super fun to watch, but he relies heavily on his receiving role in order to factor into our fantasy game. Any RB that threatens that role (Mike Davis + whomever they draft) will cut directly into Cohen’s upside. Not sure if it is more of a negative for Tarik, or a plus for Trubisky, but over the past two seasons, Cohen has produced 814 yards and 5 TD’s rushing (4.4 ypc) while Trubisky has 669 yards and the same 5 TD (6.1 ypc) on 77 fewer attempts. I hear talk like Cohen is going to inherit more of a rushing role with the exodus of Jordan Howard, but I think there is a real chance his role could more closely reflect that of Theo Riddick in his prime.
For those following along at home, the five teams currently with no 2nd round picks are the Chicago Bears (again), Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. The Bears not having a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2019 may lower the odds they add a threatening RB in this draft, but if they don’t do it this year, adding one in 2020 would be expected.
I’m about to get plenty more uncomfortable if I don’t get started on the meat of this article, which is breaking down “Spring’s Hot Destinations” for the Wide Receiver and Tight End class as the 2019 NFL Draft speeds toward us like an express train.
Hogwarts Express
WIDE RECEIVERS
The 2019 Draft class has wide receivers in all shapes and sizes. The hype currently surrounding the two WR’s (DK Metcalf and Marquise Brown) and one RB (Josh Jacobs) invited to attend the NFL’s first round live in Nashville, I will 99% chance be fading in dynasty rookie drafts.
A few from this class may become fantasy stars, a few others seem more the complementary (bestball) type, and most of the rest will bust.
Landing spots and draft capital will go a very long way in determining how to value these prospects, as they do every year.
For fantasy drafting, there was a time when I would only consider WR’s drafted in the first two rounds, but this hard rule has softened for me over the passing years.
When the following list of WR-needy teams are on the clock, we should be rooting to hear the names of our personal favorites breaking that murmuring hush.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
I’ll be going in alphabetical order this time, so I don’t accidentally miss any teams. The Cardinals have plenty of needs, and having the first pick in each round is a nice perk to sucking the prior year. I’m just going to assume QB Kyler Murray is their first pick, so any talented WR they add in any round thereafter will at least have an exciting and accurate player throwing them the ball. WR Larry Fitzgerald will be as much a WR coach as WR himself as he winds down his Hall of Fame career. WR Christian Kirk has loads of upside, but after him, there is a ton of opportunity for wideouts in Arizona.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
The coaching staff in Baltimore has already gone on record with their plan to build around QB Lamar Jackson’s strengths. They have almost 200 targets to replace with 2018’s top two recipients Michael Crabtree and John Brown leaving town. I’ve also “gone on record” saying that instead of the slower or smaller type WR’s they rostered last year who rely more on accuracy, they’d be better off loading up on larger sized contested catch winners to make their play-action passing pay off.
BUFFALO BILLS
Very similar to Lamar Jackson, QB Josh Allen has the rushing thrills (plus a cannon arm), but lacks the accuracy to be someone who elevates the play of his targets. The Bills patchwork WR corps is far from impressive, so a large role is there for the carving. Frankly I’d be depressed if my favorite wide receiver landed in Buffalo, but at least there is opportunity galore, and that can be half the battle.
DENVER BRONCOS
This is yet another place where an “Ugh” might come out of my mouth after hearing one of “my” WR’s got drafted there, but the reality is Denver has long term upside. I’m guessing QB Joe Flacco is just a rental, and the Broncos will be upgrading their QB in either this draft or the next, so those with patience can be rewarded. WR Emmanuel Sanders is on his last legs, and behind him lies quite a bit of opportunity. WR Courtland Sutton seems to have one spot on lock down, but I’m not buying the hype around fan favorite DaeSean Hamilton.
DETROIT LIONS
Ascending WR Kenny Golladay, plus the return of Marvin Jones doesn’t leave a ton of room for a rookie to thrive in, but QB Matthew Stafford has the arm talent to go toe-to-toe with any QB in the NFL. Losing Golden Tate (and the somewhat unreliable health of Marvin Jones) does leave the door open a little. A top notch WR could push for a decent load in Detroit, and I’d suspect them to add at least a couple targets (WR and TE) in this draft.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Count me as one who was unimpressed by the three WR’s Green Bay drafted last year. WR Randall Cobb is now gone, and they have very little behind Davante Adams to compete with for targets. Any talented WR who goes to the Packers, no matter the draft capital, will be on my radar. Aaron Rodgers has turned fairly limited teammates into fantasy relevant players.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Give me as many pieces of the Colts future as I can get. The fact that TE Eric Ebron and RB Nyheim Hines were 2nd and 3rd respectively in 2018 targets says a lot. To me, it says they have a glaring need for better wide receiver talent behind TY Hilton. The addition of Devin Funchess (and return of Deon Cain) may be helpful, but should one of my top WR’s be drafted by the Colts, I’ll be jumping for joy! TY Hilton is getting up there in age, and potentially becoming QB Andrew Luck’s future Alpha WR is fantasy gold.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Nick Foles should be a giant upgrade in QB talent for however many games he can survive. His career high of 11 games started over his seven year NFL career leaves plenty of doubt in my mind, though. I’ve grown tired of the wideouts Jacksonville has been running out as starters, and believe they will be upgrading their stable at some point in this draft. Dede Westbrook has earned a starting role, but behind him the door is wide open. Kind of a sketchy team to predict at the moment, both short term and long.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
More smoke recently surfaced regarding Tyreek Hill, and the odds of it catching fire seem dangerously high. Behind him stands the talented but injury prone Sammy Watkins and not much else. Playing with QB Patrick Mahomes would be a dream come true for any rookie WR (or RB) who lands in Kansas City. With so much unknown in play, I’m guessing the Chiefs add at least one talented WR in this draft. This landing spot has Super Lotto upside.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Of all the QB rentals out there, none have more swag than the traveling gypsy Ryan Fitzpatrick. This will be his 8th NFL team and his 15th year in the NFL. I’m guessing the Dolphins draft a QB either this season or next, so landing here has the upside of whomever that new QB turns out to be. I wouldn’t call their stable of pass catchers talentless, but the path to targets for a rookie WR doesn’t get much easier than it does in Miami.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
QB Tom Brady’s GOAT career is winding down. Father Time has an undefeated track record, so landing here gives you one and at best two seasons playing with the best to ever do it. Outside of Julian Edelman (and possibly Josh Gordon), the cupboard is bare at wideout in New England. I’m lukewarm to the recent signing of Demaryius Thomas, and with only $150K of his contract being guaranteed, the odds he plays a single regular season down as a Patriot are lower than the odds of not playing one. Landing here has the long term benefit of outlasting all of the old timers with contracts set to expire in the near future.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
QB Drew Brees is in the same sinking boat as Brady. That “Career Grim Reaper” has been getting his texts blocked for years, but soon there will be a knock at the door. WR Michael Thomas has a bow wrapped alpha role, but behind him are a bunch of replaceable level talents outside of last year’s rookie Tre’Quan Smith. The danger of landing with legendary QB’s at the very end of their careers is it puts you at the mercy of whomever’s “Got Next” for these franchises.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Smack-dab in the middle of “Lying Season” has me cancelling out most of what I read lately. I tend to think the Giants will indeed be drafting their future QB early in this draft. The addition of WR Golden Tate gives New York a decent base of targets, but the void left by outgoing WR Odell Beckham Jr. is so large it takes two receivers to fill it. Yet another landing spot with a healthy amount of unknown attached to it…at least for the next week or so.
NEW YORK JETS
I’m not the biggest Sam Darnold fan, but he did enough as a rookie for me to back off criticizing him too much. The addition of RB Le’Veon Bell to go with WR Robby Anderson and TE Chris Herndon is looking like a pretty good foundation. The rest of the Jets targets currently have roles, but are far from secure in them. Should QB Darnold turn out to be as good as others think he can be, getting in on the chemistry development early on in his career would be a plus.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
The rumors swirling around the Raiders are quite hard to decipher. Will they package some picks to move up? Is QB Derek Carr their future? Will any currently rostered skill position player in Oakland be on their Las Vegas Raiders roster in three years? I kind of doubt it. Change is coming, and with the 2019 Draft being so crucial to the future success of this franchise, I understand why they are throwing out so much misdirection to the media. WR Antonio Brown seems to be live streaming his journey through Manopause, and Tyrell Williams looks like a 2019 starter, but there are quite a few targets to go around after that.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
On paper it seems like the Eagles targets are kind of set for 2019, but I still feel the opportunity is there for a talented WR. The roller coaster of hype around QB Carson Wentz has some thinking he’s the next big thing, while others are dropping him in dynasty leagues. I see Philadelphia as a prime spot to land for this rookie class. I guess I’m in the camp of Team Wentz, but he’ll need to somehow find a way to get healthy and stay that way.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Can the combined forces of WR’s James Washington and Donte Moncrief fill the shoes of Antonio Brown? Maybe, but I highly doubt it. Will Big Ben and JuJu Smith-Schuster be able to do it all on their own? Nope. Someone will need to step up and become a brand new fantasy STAR in Pittsburgh this season, and a talented rookie WR from this draft class has a serious shot to be that star, should the Steelers draft one.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Like I’ve mentioned before, QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a lot to prove. Five years in the NFL and a career high of five games started in a season. One more injury shortened season and the plug will be pulled. Job security throughout the organization gets thin real fast when you aren’t putting a winning product on the field, and you can almost feel the tension riding on 2019. I believe a top rookie WR would snatch the alpha role in San Francisco, and you can only say that about a small number of teams this year.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
With The Happy Bedhead now locked up long term in Seattle, an upgrade to his targets would be expected. You don’t pay QB Russell Wilson like they just did and continue to trot out such mediocre surrounding talent. I’m guessing there will be at least two very big additions to his stable of targets this draft. I’ll most likely be drafting them myself come September.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Many of the teams listed here are listed more for the opportunity at wideout than the upside. Tennessee has an old and injured TE Delanie Walker and the talented WR Corey Davis and then not much else. WR Adam Humphries should help man the slot, but there is still room to add more talent here, but I’m just not sure it will pan out for fantasy. QB Marcus Mariota is very much in a “Prove it Now” type season.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Josh Rosen rumors have predictably quieted down during LyingSZN. I still think that’s where he is going. No way Colt McCoy leads the Redskins in 2019. An early round rookie QB would be the next best (or just plain best) option. The Washington wide receivers are pathetic, so landing here is similar to landing in San Francisco. The Alpha role awaits!
In the last part of this three part series I will comb over “Spring’s Hot Destinations” for the 2019 tight end class.
In addition to that I will release my personal “favorite possible landing spots” for the players I covet most in this class.
Looking forward to one last article before our case study begins.