Peering into the Palantír (PART I)
Peering into the Palantír
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Until draft day.
It is amazing how one event can turn the once beautiful into the hideous, or vice versa.
Imagine RB Darrell Henderson breaking huddle as a Kansas City Chief or Houston Texan. A potential game changing back for fantasy.
Imagine WR N’Keal Harry lined up opposite WR T.Y. Hilton in Indianapolis, or being peppered with targets from QB Jimmy Garoppolo as the new alpha WR in San Francisco.
Now imagine Darrell Henderson being drafted as depth to a team like Minnesota or Carolina, or N’Keal Harry being scooped up by Buffalo after falling into the early second round.
Same player, huge difference.
Landing spots and early round commitments are so important. The leash gets longer as you become a face of the franchise, or you are relegated to late round handcuff status and piss away your youth on the sidelines.
This draft class is about to become yet another case study in football beauty.
Can’t wait.
Regardless of how you personally rank the wide receivers or running backs, we should collectively be rooting for similar landing spots for our favorites.
The NFL has been leaning a bit toward specialization, but you’ll notice the most talented players find a way to stay on the field.
I find it kind of weird that historically, teams rarely double or triple up on a similar type of starting receiver. It is rare to find a WR corps made up of all ultra fast field stretchers, or all slower but sure handed chain movers. The consensus seems to be a mix of many styles works best, both for play design and predictability.
This factors in to desired landing spots as well.
Pairing similar guys like WR Andy Isabella with a team who currently has that type of WR job filled with a Brandin Cooks, Hilton or Dede Westbrook just feels like redundant trouble.
Pairing Isabella opposite Devante Adams in Green Bay, or JuJu Smith-Schuster in Pittsburgh, (or better yet opposite Travis Kelce in Kansas City should the Tyreek Hill news go south) could be solid gold.
The same can be said for a bruising style running back landing on a team currently filled with that Bull-type goal line beast, or an elusive receiving back being drafted to a team who already has a proven one. Great for NFL depth, but not so much for fantasy impact.
I guess that Yin and Yang balance of finesse and brute has proven to work best.
So how does this all tie in to Draft Day?
I’m here to try and spot the position-to-team fits we will be hoisting our glasses in celebration of!
The scary part is…the odds look grim that there will be more than just a handful of major hits in this draft when pairing strengths to needs to upside.
There are more needy teams with high round picks who just do not have the surrounding talent or quarterback or coaching that inspires fantasy confidence.
Much can change during the course of a year, but I was trying to imagine the 2019 season being complete, and forecasting possible 2020 draft orders and slotting in the talent those rookies will bring, and it got a little ugly.
So much depends on the rising tide of young QB’s excelling and becoming long term fantasy assets so they can lift all boats around them.
Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, Baker Mayfield in Cleveland, and Deshaun Watson in Houston have my full confidence, and Winston, Goff, Garoppolo, Wentz, Prescott, and Trubisky seem like recent hits.
Add to this a promising 2019 rookie QB class (plus some real studs in the college pipeline), and the upcoming blow of losing the legends we’ve grown up with should be softened quite a bit.
Palantír Visions
We all have our favorite 2019 rookies, and hope like crazy they get drafted more early than late to teams with job openings and surrounding talent.
Like a freshly printed Travel & Leisure magazine, here is a dynasty rookie version of the “Hottest Destinations for Spring!” issue.
SPRING BREAK!
QUARTERBACK
I do not (yet) play in Superflex (also known as two quarterback) Leagues, but I respect the way they elevate the value of the most important position in football.
Regardless of which rookie QB you hold closest to your heart, these are the hot spots for 2019.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
There is only one player that goes first overall per draft. Being said player = great landing spot. It virtually insures you will have that job long enough for the team to build around your strengths. It doesn’t hurt to have one of the best WR’s ever, one of the best RB’s in fantasy, and if you are Kyler Murray…two former teammates from your 2015 season at Texas A&M. (WR Christian Kirk and TE Ricky Seals-Jones)
NEW YORK GIANTS
You may need to wait a year holding clipboard, unless you can unseat The Book of Eli by outperforming him every day at practice. Still plenty of prestige being the Big Apple’s starting QB.
DENVER BRONCOS
I’m guessing Joe Flacco may give you the cold shoulder instead of a flowery lei upon arrival, but can you blame him?
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Andy Dalton was crowned the starting QB on day one of his rookie year. Eight seasons later and zero playoff wins to show for it, I’m ready for a fresh start. Maybe the new regime is too.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
They hired their stop-gap QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick kind of like how Cleveland wasted money on Tyrod Taylor. Nice weather, spicy food, spicy women, the only undefeated season. Lots to like in Miami when you look out the window from the facility. Inward, not so much.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Remember when people used to Virtue Signal their disdain for the term Redskins? Gotta love how Beta’s work the ladies. Word on the street has QB Josh Rosen heading to D.C. Perfect. Him vs. Colt McCoy would be a Battle Royale. (good film) If that falls through, there is an easy path to Startersville here.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
For the patient type, this landing spot is like being accepted to the University of Oxford…but for quarterbacks.
RUNNING BACKS
OK, NOW we’re getting to the juicy parts.
The more talented the running backs you personally love are, the more tiers of fits open up to you.
Hmmm. Any Millennials out there need a name for their fake FL Studio band?
Tears of Fits has a nice ring to it.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
I’ve already penciled in the name Josh Jacobs here, but we shall see. A 22 year old joining a group of egomaniacal misfits and moving to Vegas. What could go wrong? “Hard Knocks on line one, would you like to take the call?”
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Free Ronald Jones! (I kid) Plenty of opportunity here, but the line needs to improve or it could make your favorite RB look real bad.
BUFFALO BILLS
They’ve assembled a sweet tandem of old timers (LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore) for any rookie who lands here to learn from. It won’t be long before they are both out the door, but it would take real talent to push them out.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
If they are going all-in on tanking I could see them sticking with the duo of Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage, but I’d bet they add some comp.
ATLANTA FALCONS
The return of Devonta Freeman will help, but I’m not buying the Ito Smith hype. Kind of a sneaky great spot to land for this RB class.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
I’d be interested in seeing what the trio of Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could do, but the better RB’s in this class should be able to carve out a decent role here.
HOUSTON TEXANS
As my man @menobrown might say, Houston is one of the “Honey Holes” for this running back class to land in. The RB’s I place atop my list would snatch the lead role there by the start of preseason.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Another sneaky good spot, I wouldn’t worry about competing with anyone currently rostered.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Damien Williams and Carlos Hyde would not worry me if that is all I must compete with. They would hold off plenty of this draft class, but not the best ones. This is the Gold Mine Honey Hole of them all!
PART I summarized the more coveted destinations that the top rookie QB’s and RB’s could land.
PART II will break down the same for arguably the most talented two positions in this class, the Wide Receivers and Tight Ends.
See you then!