Dynasty Football Hero Class Series: Combined 2020 and 2021 Rookie Rankings.
Like NFL arenas from coast to coast, enjoy your final month of calm before the storm begins.
Options.
Such wonderful things to have at our disposal. I guess that’s what makes dynasty fantasy football so enjoyable. From your startup on, you can play the game in such a variety of ways that it never gets boring.
Some teams load up on peaking veterans (that they can acquire in bulk thanks to age-related discounts) in order to attempt to win immediately, and should they pull off a championship with their “older” roster, the profits can usually fund the next five years of league fees, along with the five rookie drafts (to slowly get younger) that come with that.
Other team owners may draft young, then leverage the gemstones that each league magically bestows upon them yearly (know as future picks) toward acquiring proven veterans in trade, understanding the poor hit-rates that even the first round of rookie drafts tend to have. This strategy may also help avoid the stink bomb that seems to happen from time to time when an entire rookie class underwhelms.
Most dynasty owners lean toward a balanced roster focused on both the now and the later, mixing bright young stars with grizzled vets, attempting to perpetually be in contention for league titles.
Some owners decline the offered single treat for a chance at two treats soon, sacrificing year one with the intent to create a monster team filled with coveted youth and loaded with future draft picks that may need a second or even third season to fully peak, but by then could be set up to continue that peak for many years in a row.
On paper, every strategy can work. When reality hits and things go south, there is always the option to blow up your old plan and replace it with a new one. Having a surplus of young talent and future picks seems to give an owner the most leverage when the trading option is eventually deployed.
I share the opinion with many successful dynasty players that active trading offers the fastest means of improving one’s roster. Sure, you can slow-churn your roster with the yearly rookie draft as well as the very important waiver wire, but from my experience, a savvy trader can shave multiple years off of the time it takes to reshape a team from perennial loser to perennial playoff participant in the quest for championships.
As someone who self-identifies as much more “glass half full” when forecasting the future careers of the young and unproven, I need to pump the brakes on how I may group them into tiers, with the understanding that a high percentage of each rookie class will indeed go bust. It may take a few years to close the book on players, but on average, you can bank on 40%-to-60% of even first round rookie draft picks going bust.
Many wise dynasty players have already switched strategies and have been trading their first round rookie picks for proven veterans with roles they have seen and trust. What they may lose giving up a year or two in age, they gain with avoiding the high bust-rate that goes with drafting rookies.
I’ve slowly grown my dynasty portfolio, adding a team or two each offseason. I currently have twelve dynasty teams, but two are orphan purchases I’ve made at very low stakes ($50 and $100 entry) in order to get a taste of superflex dynasty, which I do enjoy. I’ll leave those two leagues out. The ten remaining teams consist of three private leagues ($250, $400 and $1000 entry fee each season) and seven FFPC dynasty teams (three $500’s, three $750’s, and one $1250 entry). All but one of these are TE Premium (1.5 PPR for TE) and mimic the FFPC’s single QB rule set in both scoring and roster limit (10 starters and 10-man bench).
I will use the combined rookie draft ADP from my nine established dynasty leagues, as well as the drafted order of the 2020 rookies in the startup I did last offseason. For a fun way of crossing over with the gaming side of this website, I’ll tier the combined pool of 2020 and 2021 rookies in a way popularized in Japanese manga like the outstanding series One Punch Man, where the superheroes are tiered into classes loosely based on the grading scale used in school there, with S-Class being the western equivalent of an A-Grade, down to the C-Class rating being closer to the western D-Grade, etc.
Defining the four classes of heroes from worst to first.
C-Class Heroes:
The lowest class of hero with the highest populace. Think JAG (Just A Guy). These heroes definitely out-class even the best of us mortals, (dynasty players, analysts, data scientists and writers) and even out-class the thousands of hopefuls that may have dominated high school, college and even professional leagues, yet haven’t quite made it into the National Football League. They are worthy of respect, but unworthy of being mentioned much here at Signal Focused. They are noise.
B-Class Heroes:
You cannot fully ignore the C-Class, for it is the large pool of talent from which future upper tiered classes eventually pull from. Late-bloomers who have yet to mature and heroes returning from injury often dwell anonymously in the C-Class until they are ready. With a promotion to B-Class, you have shown separation from the masses and are often rewarded with a second NFL contract. Think of B-Class heroes as fantasy gatekeepers. They may briefly pop up on waiver wires now and then, but are mostly rostered year round. The talent is there to have a long career in the league, but most B-Class heroes make up the bench of elite fantasy teams, and are starters on the weaker and younger or rebuilding teams.
A-Class Heroes:
You can mix B-Class heroes into your starting lineup when the matchup is extra juicy, or when injuries or BYE weeks start factoring in, but A-Class heroes are those set-it-and-forget-it type locked-in starters that your team relies on to carry the scoring load from week to week. These heroes fetch a nice return when trading, and dry up very quickly toward the top of draft boards. Our goal in dynasty is to roster as many A-Class and above heroes as we can, but their numbers are few.
S-Class Heroes:
The cream of the entire fantasy crop. Think TOP FIVE or so (in dynasty trade value) at each position. You may see the occasional S-Class hero fall a bit in redraft leagues, as the masses are not willing to promote them so quickly as rookies. That value is usually greatest prior to the NFL Draft and continues very early in drafting season, then slowly dissolves as we approach Week 1, all but disappearing within a single season. Glance at a recent dynasty startup draft, and like looking into a crystal ball, you will see a glimpse of what the following season of redraft has in store.
The trick is to have the foresight to add lower tiered heroes to your roster prior to their class promotion, and to consider selling them once they have reached the top hero classes. With so much of our game tied to the opinions and judgments of the masses, it is quite rare to have the same top five players at each position repeat their status from year-to-year (or even month-to-month) so selling when they reach the top is a healthy option to have at your disposal.
I have combined my dynasty league rookie drafts from 2020 and 2021 and will list these players in the average order they were selected. This has nothing to do with how they would have been drafted if they were indeed all lumped together, but simply serves as a clean order to list them and shows who dynasty owners felt were the cream of their individual draft crops. I will note their dynasty rookie draft range, including the earliest and latest draft slots that were successful in acquiring them.
Alongside their FPPG (Fantasy Points Per Game, using FFPC’s PPR/TE Premium Scoring) I will include the number of games played (active on game day, received snaps) as well as their age (rounded up) associated with that season. In the past I have dug deep and eliminated partial games if the player wasn’t able to complete a half of play, and included playoff games when all the marbles were at risk, but reality is reality, and if a team decides to set limits on volume in order to keep guys fresh for a playoff run, that needs to be the reality we look at.
All games, including Bowl games, will be included for their NCAA stats.
Every single dynasty league I play in runs from Week 1 through Week 16 (2021 will up that number to 17) so using anything other than those weeks would be a disservice. If a player performed exceedingly well outside of those weeks, (for example in week 17 or in the NFL playoffs) it should be noted in his profile.
Each player article in the upcoming series will have his post-high school and post-college scout-based ratings listed. These rating are explained here, attempting to use their own site’s description when possible:
POST-HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL PROSPECT GRADING CONTEXT
RIVALS
6.1 (5-STAR) Franchise Player: considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation's top 30-35 players overall, a potential first-team All American candidate and a player deemed to have first round NFL potential.
6.0-5.8 (4-STAR) All American Candidate: considered one of the next-tier elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation’s top 300-325 prospects overall, a national All American candidate and a player deemed to have first to third round NFL potential
5.7-5.5 (3-STAR) All Region Selection: considered among the region’s top prospects and generally among the nation’s top 800-850 prospects overall, a potential All-Conference candidate and a player deemed to have mid to low-end pro potential and ability to impact at the college level.
5.2-5.4 (2-STAR) Low End FBS prospect: considered a mid-major prospect with limited pro potential and expected to contribute 1-2 years at a high level maximum or often as a role player.
247 SPORTS
98-110 (5-STAR) The top 32 players in the country to mirror the 32 first-round picks in the NFL Draft. These are 32 players that we believe are the most likely to be drafted in the first round from each recruiting class. The full list of 32 with five-star ratings typically isn’t complete until the final ranking. Any player with a rating of more than 100 is considered a “franchise player” and one that does not come around in every recruiting class.
90-97 (4-STAR) These are players that we believe are the most likely to produce college careers that get them drafted. By National Signing Day, this number is typically in the range of 350 prospects, roughly the top 10 percent of prospects in a given class.
80-89 (3-STAR) This is where the bulk of college football prospects are found and it incorporates a large range of ability levels, all of whom we consider as possible NFL players long term.
70-79 (2-STAR) These are prospects that we consider to be FBS-level players with very limited NFL potential.
ESPN
100-90 (5-STAR) These players demonstrate rare abilities and can create mismatches that have an obvious impact on the game. These players have all the skills to take over a game and could make a possible impact as true freshmen. They should also push for All-America honors with the potential to have a three-and-out college career with early entry into the NFL draft.
89-80 (4-STAR) These players have the ability to create mismatches versus most opponents and have dominant performances. These players could contribute as a true freshmen and could end up as all-conference or All-America candidates during their college careers and develop into difference-makers over time.
79-70 (3-STAR) These players show flashes of dominance, but not on a consistent basis -- especially when matched up against the top players in the country. Players closer to a 79 rating possess BCS-caliber ability and the potential to be a quality starter or all-conference player. Players closer to a 70 rating are likely non-BCS conference caliber prospects.
69-60 (2-STAR) These players are overmatched versus the better players in the nation. Their weaknesses will be exposed against top competition, but have the ability to develop into solid contributors at the non-BCS FBS level and could be a quality fit for the FCS level of play.
POST-COLLEGE FOOTBALL PROSPECT GRADING CONTEXT
NFL
8.0-7.3 (5-STAR) Ranges include the perfect prospect to perennial All-Pro grading.
7.2-6.7 (4-STAR) Ranges include Pro Bowl upside through quality year one rookie starter.
6.6-6.1 (3-STAR) Ranges include projected starter within first two seasons with both boom and bust potential.
6.0-5.0 (2-STAR) Range includes potential starter to special teamer to backup to practice squad player.
100M
Included ONLY if the player participated in HIGH SCHOOL Track and Field.
100 meter dash personal record time. (with grade when accomplished)
HS Freshman (9th Grade), HS Sophomore (10th Grade), HS Junior (11th Grade), HS Senior (12th Grade).
Often due to injury or fear of embarrassment, players miss out on running officially videoed and lasered NFL Combine 40-yard dash times in a controlled, indoor environment.
Linking to historically inaccurate (or in the case of the 2021 rookie class: Biblically inaccurate!) Pro Day times is very bad practice in my opinion, so having some sort of comparative speed reference from when they were back in high school has value.
In the series to come, most noted items and ratings from this article will be used without explanation, so checking back here for reference is advised.
Over the course of my fantasy football career, I’ve seen the talent pool in the NFL rise and fall like the tide, at times feeling like we were deep in a drought when trying to mine gems at certain position later on in drafts.
The tide has definitely turned, and I’ve been very impressed by the depth of the 2020 and 2021 rookie classes, and feel the NFL overall is in a cycle of surplus talent, the likes of which don’t come around very often.
Looking forward to exploring how deep the rookie rabbit hole goes.