2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Tiers
“Wow, it worked!” he exclaimed after being cryogenically frozen for a year… “Did I miss much?” ;-)
Here we are again, one sleep away from what many NFL and fantasy football fans rank as a holiday bumping shoulders with Halloween and Thanksgiving. Dynasty players may even have NFL Draft Weekend ranked closer to Graduation Day or Christmas Eve. Not quite the overall bliss level generated on Rookie Draft Mornings or strolling into a live FFPC Main Event in Vegas, but I’m not here to quibble over goose bump counts.
We’ve read so many articles on this rookie class that if printed out would fill a wheel barrow, listened to enough hours of podcasts to last a coast-to-coast-to-coast road trip, and watched highlight film and player interviews to the point we are fully ready to once again look like absolute fools by the middle of round three.
I’ll be grouping by position and listing players in tiers, and will add a little commentary in spots where I feel an opinion is warranted.
To the others out there faithfully returning year after year to serve our labor-of-love mistress, I salute you!
One buzzcut away from resembling Mike Glennon, so don’t do it Samson!
QUARTERBACKS
TIER 1
Trevor Lawrence QB1
There is a big difference between projecting players while anchored to a cloud in the realm of dreams and imagining their maximum upside if everything falls right, and ranking players based on their mental and physical skill sets and proven production over many seasons. Trevor looks solid either way and we’ve been waiting for him to become draft eligible since he was a sophomore in high school.
TIER 2
Justin Fields QB2
Back-to-back undefeated regular seasons, falling short against Trevor Lawrence and Clemson in 2019, then getting sweet revenge in 2020, but falling short to Mac Jones and Alabama in the National Championship game. Dual threat winner with experience against the top teams in college football, and dripping with dynasty upside.
Mac Jones QB3
Talk about a late bloomer! Throughout his high school career and first three years of college prior to the hip injury sustained by starter Tua Tagovailoa, Mac was a ghost. Jones crushed his late-season audition well enough to secure the starting job in 2020 and never looked back. Rumors of some Rain Man level recall adds to his mystique. Leading Alabama to a perfect season made for a nice Cinderella Story in a time when good stories were very much appreciated.
TIER 3
Zach Wilson QB4
Put himself on our radars in 2020 after a fairly Joe-Blow career prior to that. Chips in with his legs and looks the part, but I think the jump in talent on the opposite side of the ball will be quite an eye opener for him after tuning up some bottom of the barrel opponents at BYU.
Trey Lance QB5
Best last name in football. I’m enjoying the hype machine cranking up his stock, but remain dubious. A 2-STAR high school recruit with offers to play QB from (checks notes) virtually none of the major college programs, Trey had to settle on North Dakota State. In his one full season as a starter Lance made the most of it, going a perfect 16-0, combining for 42 TD’s (28 passing, 14 rushing) and zero interceptions. His numbers look quite impressive, but we are talking a full 16 game season. I can count his number of 300 yard passing games on my thumbs, and I’d only need one hand. Starting NFL QB’s are kind of expected to throw the ball a bit, and he’ll find defenses at the next level a tad more athletic than football powerhouses like UC Davis, Nicholls, Delaware, Youngstown State and the like he faced in college. It is easy to poke holes in his resume, but his dynasty upside if everything falls perfectly into place remains tantalizing.
TIGHT ENDS
TIER 1
Kyle Pitts TE1
What’s left to say about Pitts? Can’t miss. Superman. Best tight end prospect since Sliced Bread. His wingspan makes Pterodactyls blush. I have a hard time disagreeing, but I’ve seen this song and dance a few times already in my day, and the hit rate isn’t so great. People keep trying to say “If he were a WR, he’d be ranked #1 in this class there as well!” but I call bullshit on that when Gator teammates Van Jefferson and Kadarius Toney both out performed him over the past two seasons. Pitts makes his money on touchdowns, but prior to his 2020 season, he only had 6 TD’s combined in his first two years at Florida. A large part of the puzzle this year is trying to guess how many of these players who broke out big time during a wild 2020 season will be hits or misses going forward. Despite having very few Rotoworld (RIP) blurbs to his credit prior to 2020, he still feels like a future star. Opting out of Florida’s final bowl game, weak blocking prowess and missing a total of four games in 2020 are small flags, but he passes the eye test with flying colors and I’m quite interested to see how fast he develops at the next level.
TIER 2
Pat Freiermuth TE2
Brevin Jordan TE3
Hunter Long TE4
Tommy Tremble TE5
If there is one thing I’m less wowed by than college tight end statistics, it is college tight end highlights. Follow the draft capital. Next!
RUNNING BACKS
TIER 1
Travis Etienne RB1
The only running back to crack my top 5 from last season (back when we thought both he and Najee might declare for the 2020 NFL Draft) “ETN” put up his third straight season averaging more than 22 fantasy points per game. He’s been excellent rushing, receiving and scoring touchdowns over a large sample against top competition. His top speed to break long plays is the big difference maker and sets him at the top of my rankings all alone.
TIER 2
Najee Harris RB2
Najee broke out big time in 2020, doubling his touchdown total from 2019 and showing some nice hands and feet in the passing game. He looks like a durable all around professional running back who worked any flaws he may have had into strengths. His advanced pass protection is fairly rare and should help him stay on the field. His older age gets a small flag, but most players are only really valuable (to both the NFL and dynasty) during their first contract anyway.
TIER 3
Javonte Williams RB3
The only two running backs I’m sold on to some degree are those listed above this tier. Comping Javonte to Kareem Hunt as an idea holds my interest, but my eyes say “Hell No, I don’t see it.” My eyes see a regular run-of-the-mill NFL caliber running back. I have a hard time seeing special. Both he and running mate Michael Carter shared a very even load and had very even stats. North Carolina did not play many highly rated defenses against the run in 2020, and they both failed to pop in the two games when they did face such teams. Defeating my ego seems a never ending war, so I’ll gladly re-think my rankings should BIG NFL say he’s a premium level draft pick. He’s got age on his side, but I’m just skeptical toward buying in on the hype generated around the remaining RB’s in this class.
Trey Sermon RB4
Kenneth Gainwell RB5
Michael Carter RB6
Like I already mentioned, any running back BIG NFL rates as a premium draft pick will get my attention and respect. I’m looking forward to seeing where other backs like Jermar Jefferson, Chuba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson, Elijah Michell and Kylin Hill end up as well.
WIDE RECEIVERS
TIER 1
Devonta Smith WR1
Devonta’s 2020 season was so dominant that to put it into perspective you have to compare it to Ja’Marr Chase’s breakout 2019 season. The difference in fantasy points per game between Devonta’s 2020 season and Chase’s 2019 season was larger than the difference between Chase’s 2019 season and Devonta’s 2019 season. If you merged Devonta’s 2019 season with his 2020 season, the average fantasy points per game would be HIGHER than Chase’s 2019 season. I was more impressed by the diversity of skills displayed in Devonta’s highlights as well. Calling Smith an outlier is ridiculous, as he has already done it. He’s faced the best coverage the SEC can muster and has shined bright his entire college career. His attitude is unmatched.
TIER 2
Ja’marr Chase WR2
Being a year and a third younger than Devonta gets some brownie points for the perception crafters, but it’s not enough for me to bump Chase above Smith. I love Ja’Marr too, but I’m just showing respect for a player who did it for multiple seasons vs. one. I like to compare my top three in this class to Chad Johnson (Devonta), Dez Bryant (JaMarr) and Antonio Brown (Moore). Dez was a beast, but Ocho Cinco did it just as well and for more seasons, and I’m not foolish enough to hope that Elijah can sniff the career of AB, but I’m still plenty interested in loading up and finding out.
Elijah Moore WR3
In a regular year, the SEC gets a bump for earning every yard of their stats against better overall athletes in general, but even more so in the wild 2020 season when they had to cannibalize from their own conference for a lack of willing opponents. It reminded me of a quote from the UFC’s Dana White when describing the need for Fight Island. Something to the effect of “if we cannot import the top fighters from around the world, we’ll end up burning through our home grown talent too quickly for lack of available outside opponents.” You could do much worse than simply drafting the best players from the SEC exclusively each season, as one league mate in a $500 FFPC dynasty league has done for many years and always fields a dangerous lineup.
TIER 3
Terrace Marshall WR4
Jaylen Waddle WR5
Rashod Bateman WR6
Kadarius Toney WR7
TIER 4
Tylan Wallace WR8
Rondale Moore WR9
Nico Collins WR10
Dyami Brown WR11
Jalen Darden WR12
Assuming this NFL Draft is as bad or even more of a Wild Wild West than previous years, I look forward to seeing how piss-poor this list may look by Friday night.
I hope you have a special place to kick back and take in all that heavenly glory with your drink of choice close at hand.
These ranking and tiers may shift around a bit post-draft but I’ll have this timestamped reference article to add to my previous ones in the quest to improve our process of unearthing the Dynasty Diamonds from each and every NFL Draft.
I’ll be returning soon enough after drafting my many dynasty rookie drafts (now pushing $7K in yearly fees) that will begin shortly after Draft Weekend and creating an ADP from them, giving in-depth commentary, stats, graphics and more unfiltered opinions of how it all went down.
The wait is almost over.