Winter is Coming (for your job) II
Winter is Coming (for your job) II
We continue cutting our path through the snow in a team-by-team preview.
The often neglected reverse alphabetical order was shivering alone in the cold with an ice-tear from lack of use, so we appeased.
Minnesota Vikings
2018 was a strange season for the Vikings. So much hope after shocking the Saints in the 2017 playoffs (poor Saints have been shock-knocked two years in a row) and adding prized free agent QB Kirk Cousins. Maybe it was their defense falling off a bit, allowing 21.3 points per game (9th) in 2018 after leading the NFL in defensive points allowed (15.8) in 2017.
RB Dalvin Cook took a while to fully trust his new knee, but looked a lot more like himself toward the end of the season.
WR Stefon Diggs bridged the gap between he and WR Adam Thielen as the duo worked their magic in historic fashion. Both wide receivers managed to reach 149+ targets, 102+ receptions, 1021+ yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. Amazing production.
TE Kyle Rudolph taught a hard lesson to those who benched him. “Never bench Rudolph on Christmas weekend.” A buddy of mine did just that, and the 9 reception, 122 yards, 2 TD game (37.7 FPTS) sitting on his bench cost him a Championship.
All in all, the Minnesota offense performed well. Could be that their first year together had some chemistry issues, but with a healthy Dalvin Cook and hopefully an improved offensive line, they should be just fine in 2019.
I don’t see many job openings to be had on offense, outside of bolstering their backup running back and adding young depth.
Miami Dolphins
Miami’s offensive situation is as polar opposite to the team we just covered as their regional climates. Every position is up for grabs.
Two turncoat New England Patriots coaches jumped ship in their division to become the new Miami HC (Brian Flores) and OC (Chad O’Shea). This team will be starting from scratch.
One of the more likely teams to draft a QB in the first round, they desperately need a face of the franchise. They have zero stars on offense.
The players closest to having job security are RB’s Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage and WR’s Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills, but make no mistake, Winter is Coming to Miami.
I have no clue how the new coaching staff will make out, but for the sake of the massive opportunity for carries and targets, I’ll keep a close eye on whomever lands there. Upgrading their QB will go far in trying to warm back up to the Dolphins.
Los Angeles Rams
I’ll just assume that RB Todd Gurley was hiding some sort of injury and RB C.J. Anderson came in with the classic advantage of late-season fresh legs to appear more talented than he is. Those fresh legs lasted a whole three games before he turned back into a pumpkin.
There are debates on social media regarding the lack of high quality coaching in the AFC East to challenge Coach B. Well, when your anointed offensive genius Sean McVay only manages to score a field goal in the most important game of his life, maybe you can understand the reason why.
I’m willing to throw out the post-Gurley led Rams part of the season and focus on how outstanding they were before that. I have no fear of CJA stealing any of Todd’s thunder in 2019.
The return of WR Cooper Kupp should have the Rams lighting up scoreboards again next year, and their wide receiver corps in general looks pretty locked down. Kupp semi-quietly had an 80 rec, 1100 yard, 12 TD pace going through eight games. Too bad his dynasty owners are wise enough to hodl. ;-) I’d love to add him to my teams. There are rumors of him starting 2019 on the PUP list, but I still don’t see the Rams adding a WR talented enough to break into their starting trio.
I’ve been put to sleep by how the Rams use their tight ends. Too spotty. This would be one of the few positions on offense where there is some job opportunity should they decide to upgrade.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers were road warriors in 2018, beating Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Baltimore down the stretch in their opponent’s stadiums. This is another example of what I feel is petty sour grapes for those bashing the Patriots. LAC were red hot (12-2) heading to New England. No other team had tougher opponents than the Patriots in the playoffs, facing off against the 13-4 Chargers, then traveling to beat the 13-4 Chiefs, followed by the 15-3 Rams. I mean c’mon…give it a rest.
QB Phillip Rivers is as steady as it gets. I consider him one of the few quarterbacks that can make whomever he chooses to a star. His throws are high quality, accurate throws.
Although his price seems to be rising, I’m still interested in adding WR Mike Williams if I can. Aside from touchdowns, his targets, receptions and yardage looked identical to those of WR Tyrell Williams. WR Keenan Allen is the load-hog there, but things could get interesting next year. Sure, the exodus of Tyrell may be offset by the return of TE Hunter Henry, but my money will be on Mike and his 11 total touchdowns getting a nice bump in targets next season.
RB Melvin Gordon is used perfectly in their scheme. He’s a guy who blew me away with how smooth of a receiver he has become in the NFL. Kudos to the Charger coaching staff. This is a guy who totaled 22 receptions in his four year career at Wisconsin, forever throwing a monkey wrench into my forecasting.
The RB’s behind Gordon all stepped up big when given the work, and with the return of the talented TE Hunter Henry, I do not see many jobs to be won outside of adding depth at wide receiver.
Kansas City Chiefs
What an amazing start to QB Patrick Mahomes’ career. I had him as my QB in 90% of my fantasy leagues last year, then POOF, the regular season ends and I may not have a single share of him again at his new price. He never even had to uncork his rushing prowess that had him scoring 22 rushing TD’s over his final 25 games at Texas Tech. He had 11 more TD’s (50) than second place Andrew Luck (39) despite being 7th in passing attempts. Big Ben may have won the passing yards title by a measly 32 yards, but it took Ben almost 100 more attempts (95) to get there.
Losing RB Kareem Hunt hurts the upside of the Chiefs offense. He had the rare combination of elite yards from scrimmage average (110 yards per game) plus scoring (25 TD in 27 games) plus durability (27 games started out of 27).
There are those who want to buy in to RB Damien Williams and his production as the last man standing after both Hunt and RB Spencer Ware were done. Like many others, I admit I was impressed with his five games as a starter (including playoffs) where he went for 114 yards from scrimmage per game, and scored 8 times in 5 games. Small sample showed better numbers than Hunt on average.
My problem is similar to how I feel about C.J. Anderson. Coming in with fresh legs late in the season has been a mirage so often, it is something I discount greatly. This is the same Damien Williams who was the 3rd string RB in KC after a pathetic career as a backup in Miami. The same Damien Williams who went undrafted after an average resume at Oklahoma. The same Damien Williams who has a career 9 starts in his 5 year NFL career who will be going into his age 27 season. That said, if he remains the top dog in KC after free agency and the draft are complete, he will have great value. Imagine if the Chiefs trade for RB Duke Johnson or draft a guy like RB Darrell Henderson? All bets would be off. I’m just trying to say his job at the moment is not as secure as others believe it to be.
TE Travis Kelce is a beast. He set career bests in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns…the Super Sombrero! Mahomes used him to a tee, and he has become my 1.06 heading into 2019 drafts based on his role, security, chemistry and positional advantage.
What is kind of scary is that behind WR’s Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, there are jobs to be had in KC. Any talented RB or WR who finds there way to Kansas City should be looked at through rose colored glasses.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Wow. Hard transition after that last team. I almost typed “Next.” and moved on.
OK, what do we have here? A new OC in John DeFilippo coming over from Minnesota, a new unknown quarterback, a bunch of number two or three type receivers, and RB Leonard Fournette.
I’ve been buying Fournette at his fancy new discount, hoping he can find a way to care for his body like a pro and manage a way to stay on the field. Missing over 34% of his possible games played the past three years does dampen my confidence.
The only other Jaguar I think is safe in their role is WR Dede Westbrook who quietly had over 100 targets.
Both the number two (WR Donte Moncrief) and number three (RB T.J. Yeldon) in targets from 2018 seem to be leaving town, opening up 167 targets heading into 2019. Not too shabby.
We need to see how much new talent Jacksonville can attract, especially at quarterback. With the #7 pick in the NFL Draft, things could improve significantly.
There are good odds they will have a brand new QB, WR1 and TE within a few short weeks. I sure hope so.
Indianapolis Colts
What a franchise changing hire snatching Philadelphia’s Superbowl winning Offensive Coordinator Frank Reich was for Indianapolis. He was deservedly in the mix for coach of the year honors in his very first season in such a role. I was already a fan of GM Chris Ballard, and this hire bolstered that opinion.
Lucky for me ;-) I took a pretty big chance both trading for QB Andrew Luck in dynasty during last offseason’s chaos, as well as loading up on him at his bargain basement price in redraft. He looked like vintage Luck, finishing as a top fantasy QB in 2018 and will likely have at least some upgrades in the targets around him.
The return of TE Jack Doyle will surely cut into the volume Eric Ebron received last year, but talent-wise I’m backing Ebron fresh off his first Pro Bowl. Eric just scored the same amount of touchdowns (14) in his first season with Luck than Doyle scored in his six year NFL career with the Colts.
RB Marlon Mack had a breakout season at the tender age of 22, rushing for a solid average and scoring 10 touchdowns. RB Nyheim Hines captured a large percentage of the RB targets, and performed admirably for a rookie. Even RB Jordan Wilkins looked good when given the chance. I doubt the Colts will put running back high on their needs list with how they performed in 2018.
WR T.Y. Hilton rebounded nicely with the return of Luck and his accuracy. His role looks quite safe and I would expect better numbers are in store for 2019. Behind Hilton, I see some openings for jobs to be had. Some are projecting bigger roles for the wide receivers currently rostered, but I am not one of them.
Houston Texans
In his first full season with QB Deshaun Watson, WR DeAndre Hopkins set new career highs in receptions and yards. His target-hog role, top shelf durability, Super-Glue hands, cat-like spine and elite body control is flat out bliss for those invested. Both are being drafted near the top of their positions and deservedly so. Watson picks his spots to run, and the added 550 yards and 5 TD’s rushing help boost his floor.
Behind Hopkins, we should have the healthy return of talented WR’s Will Fuller and Keke Coutee. They both have that injury prone label, but Frankensteining them together makes a nice hedge bet in both bestball and redraft.
I’m not big on how Houston uses their tight ends, but promoting TE’s coach Tim Kelly to OC will force me to keep my eye on things, especially if they draft one of the TE’s from this class.
RB Lamar Miller just keeps chugging along as one of the longest tenured “Just a Guys” in the NFL to hold down a job. I’m unsure if RB D’Onte Foreman can absorb the void left by Alfred Blue, or challenge for more, but any RB with talent that may end up a Texan will have plenty of opportunity to grab some load.
Green Bay Packers
It will be weird not seeing HC Mike McCarthy roaming the sidelines. Not that I was a big fan, it’s just that he’s been a fixture there since 2006 and was the second longest tenured Packers HC since Curley Lambeau himself! (Longer than even Vince Lombardi’s run) New HC Matt LaFleur and new OC Nathaniel Hackett come to spread the garbage they managed as the 2018 OC’s of (wait for it) the Titans (yuck) and Jaguars (barf). Thankfully, QB Aaron Rodgers has reached that Peyton Manning age and prestige where he can virtually call his own game at the line.
Another long time Packer (8 seasons) WR Randall Cobb looks like he’ll be moving on, leaving a pretty inexperience group behind star WR Davante Adams. It took five long years to finally give Adams the target load he deserved, setting career highs across the board as he turned them into fantasy gold. Thanks for nothing, McCarthy.
RB Aaron Jones was another player McCarthy held in check for no reason, and once freed went on to lead the NFL in rushing yards per attempt by RB’s with an impressive 5.47 yards per tote. He passes the eye test with flying colors and has solid receiving skills on his resume. He’s one of those guys like David Johnson and Christian McCaffrey before him that could take a huge leap if given the load. He happens to sport a 2000+ yards from scrimmage, 20 TD season while back in college.
It appears that Green Bay will bring back TE Jimmy Graham for another season. He ended up number two on the team in targets, but didn’t justify such a load production-wise.
I’m not sold on the group of young wide receivers behind Adams, so I’d expect them to add at least one talented WR during this offseason. They could use improved depth across the board offensively as well.
Detroit Lions
HC Matt Patricia took over a 9-7 Lions team and coached them to a 6-10 record, despite the wink-wink gift win from Belichick. The scapegoat OC gets fired and they bring in ex-Seahawks OC Darell Bevell from back when Russell Wilson was running and gunning.
Seems like I’m living in the past here, when QB Matt Stafford put up 5000 yards and 41 touchdowns. His career has been in steady decline since, and last year was one of his worst. Reminds me of the current decline of his buddy Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers who seems to be breaking down some with age. It wouldn’t surprise me if they had one big run still in them, but I’m not reaching for it. Stafford’s drivers license may show a younger age, but he’s been getting abused in the NFL since the age of 21.
RB Kerryon Johnson is a guy I’m high on. His injury shortened season shows weaker overall stats and give some drafters the willies, but he finished 2nd to Aaron Jones in RB yards per carry with 5.43. He was solid in the passing game, catching 82% of his targets (32 of 39) and scored 4 TD’s on a putrid offense despite only being credited with starting 7 games. The top touchdown scoring non-QB in Detroit only managed one more than that. The future looks bright for the 21 year old rookie moving forward, and his three down back skill set should render both RB’s Blount and Riddick expendable.
WR Kenny Golladay performed well for how bad the Lions were, posting his first 1000 yard season with room for growth as a full time starter. WR Marvin Jones was well on his way to a strong season of his own before going down to injury. I see nothing on the Lion’s roster behind these two that aren’t replaceable, including their TE’s.
Denver Broncos
I was one of those guys who watched Bronco highlights early in the season and thought “Who is that quick little running back?” It took a few weeks before I bought in, and by then RB Phillip Lindsay was already snatched off all of my league waiver wires. That early season game changer that waiver dreams are made of. I play in multiple $1000+ entry Dynasty Leagues with some brilliant minds that take scouring the rookie class as seriously as anyone, yet Lindsay didn’t sniff being selected in any of them in rookie drafts that went 84 picks deep.
On the flip side, fellow Denver rookie RB Royce Freeman was drafted around 6th overall, and those that weren’t able to handcuff had a horrible return on their investment. Once again: Beware of the Oregon Duck system feeding the NFL Draft with an early round mirage!
For being an all time great quarterback, GM John Elway has sure whiffed at spotting QB talent, and now looks to tank again with QB Joe Flacco leading the way. It would make sense to draft and groom one, but Flacco may have had his fill of that song and dance.
It seems Denver will not be featuring the injured (Achilles) WR Emmanuel Sanders, so at the moment it looks set up nicely for last years rookies WR Coutland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton. I fully expect the Broncos to add plenty of wide receiver talent to compete with those two, so we’ll have to wait and see before going nuts.
There’s been a hole at TE in Denver for years now, and the reasonably pedigreed guys they have added have failed to show anything due to injury or whatnot. They are overdue for an upgrade and I suspect it will be addressed this offseason.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott pulled off one hell of an accomplishment. He predictably led the Dallas Cowboys in Rushing Attempts, Rushing Yards, and Total Touchdowns, but also led the team in Targets and Receptions! That does not happen too often at this or any level. Zeke is in the mix for the number one overall Dynasty and Redraft player based on talent, volume and reliability. He is built to feast, but Dak needs to stop poaching his goal line TD’s.
The Clapper gets a new OC for 2019 with the promotion of QB coach Kellen Moore. I’ll take the sideline demeanor of classy southern gentleman clapping over the on-field-drifting OCD savant in L.A.
Adding WR Amari Cooper mid season had a noticeable positive impact on the play of QB Dak Prescott and the way Dallas performed thereafter, finishing the regular season with a 7-1 record over their last eight games.
WR Cole Beasley seems more likely to leave than stay after whining publicly about playing time. Rookie WR Michael Gallup showed flashes of talent, but the remaining group of wide receivers and tight ends seem far from secure in their 2019 roles. I’m not falling for the fluky week 16 game from TE Blake Jarwin after he ghosted the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns
Baker fucking Mayfield. That fan with a zillion ex-Browns quarterback names running down and off the end of its jersey can frame that thing in glass, hang it up and retire it. The wait is over.
After losing to the Steelers in week 8, Cleveland finally fired HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley and gave the keys to the offense to new OC and current Head Coach Freddie Kitchens. From that point on, Mayfield put up stats on a full season pace of 4508 yards passing and 38 touchdowns. He led Cleveland to a 5-3 record in that second half, and did so with what most would call an average-to-below average receiving corps. They for sure have talent, but most are raw and super young and yet he still was on such a fine statistical pace.
In addition to new HC Kitchens, Cleveland added former Tampa Bay OC Todd Monken who had the Buccaneers passing offense humming along in spite of all the turmoil at quarterback.
Sushi-raw players like TE David Njoku (22) and WR Antonio Callaway (21) were 2nd and 3rd in targets on the year behind savvy veteran WR Jarvis Landry. I like the enthusiasm and serviceable talent of WR Rashard Higgins, but the 115 targets that he and possibly outgoing RB Duke Johnson received last year might be going elsewhere should they upgrade their WR depth. Baker even managed to get a pulse from long thought dead Breshad Perriman’s career.
RB Nick Chubb put on a show once they sent Carlos Hyde packing. Over 1000 yards from scrimmage and 10 TD while only being credited with nine official starts. The addition of RB Kareem Hunt was a head scratcher, but loading up on cheap and proven NFL talent is not. The rumors are getting louder that Duke Johnson could be traded during the offseason once they have an idea how long Hunt will be suspended. Imagine Chubb pulling a reverse-Kamara (sounds like MMA) and getting some of the targets that usually went to Duke for the first 4-6 weeks.
QB, RB, TE and most of the WR jobs are taken here, but I’ll be on top of any talent they add this offseason as I love the direction the Browns are now heading.
Well what do you know, this series gave birth to a PART III.
Baby making RULES!
Thank you for reading PART II.
PART III should still be released prior to the highly anticipated NFL Combine this Friday March 1st, 2019.