Winter is Coming (for your job)
Winter is Coming (for your job)
(PART ONE)
What’s not to like about our coldest and darkest season? A time for reflection. For reading. For putting off all outdoor projects and not feeling guilty about it.
Like the calendar year itself, winter also brings an official end to the NFL season, as well as a new beginning. All NFL contracts set to expire after the 2018 season will do so during the cold of winter. Some may feel true freedom for the fist time. They have completed their rookie contract commitments and can now have a say in where they end up playing. They may take less money to play for a respected coach, system, team or even city.
For other players who are getting older and more expensive, they may never play again. Lost in the shuffle of names on a list. They may pop up here and there when they try out for a team or swallow their pride and sign with a practice squad, but winter is most often when careers quietly die.
The other side of this coin sees the birth of a new NFL season. Scouts and coaches fill their winter’s travel schedule with Pro Day visits criss-crossing the USA.
Players (if they are smart) spend long hours honing and sharpening their skills at combine training facilities in preparation to impress on one of the grandest events of winter: The NFL Combine.
Make no mistake.
Winter is here, and another wave of wide eyed rookies as well as the newest batch of free agents will be coming for your job.
Here is a team-by-team rundown noting weak spots in NFL rosters that should attract new talent like a vacuum. My focus here will be on those positions we actually draft and trade for in dynasty and redraft fantasy football.
Embrace winter, for who knows just how many more we shall see. Grab a cold one in defiance, kick your feet up, and don’t fret too much over this season just doing it’s thing.
Washington Redskins
For a team so injury riddled and low on offensive talent to finish 2018 only one game below .500 (7-9), it is a testament to their coaching adjustments and team play. Adrian Peterson surprised many finishing top 10 (8th) in rushing yards, being one of nine RB’s to eclipse 1000+. There wasn’t much sharing of the rushing load in WAS, so this sets up very well for Darrius Guice to take the reins in 2019. Chris Thompson flashed early, but once again failed to avoid injury. I have no clue who gets re-signed, but Guice is someone I’ll be targeting in dynasty trades and have been drafting at a nice “uncertainty” discount in early bestball leagues.
Obviously, that chilling draft you feel whizzing by your exposed neck is the vacuum caused by the Redskin’s black hole at QB. They are among the front runners to fill that with an early round rookie QB in the draft. Low on star power, the infusion of a potential face of the franchise like QB Kyler Murray would surely boost their network appeal.
When your team leader in receiving touchdowns is a five-way tie at TWO…your entire stable of targets are due for an upgrade. Not a single WR or TE has earned job security, so whomever lands in Washington via free agency or the draft will gather plenty of hype.
WAS promoted in-house QB Coach Kevin O'Connell to OC, but as of now, the only currently rostered player outside of RB Guice that I have some interest in is surprisingly last year’s final pick in the draft: WR Trey Quinn.
Tennessee Titans
Another fantasy wasteland. Is QB Marcus Mariota a key part of their future, or is he just a guy? It sure wouldn’t be the first time that the Oregon Duck offensive system has delivered a mirage to the early rounds of the NFL Draft. Hell, it’s damn near their specialty.
We got a few laughs at the size difference between RB’s Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry last offseason as we debated their roles. Looking over their final stats, I’d say that debate is over. I am not 100% sold, but if you are floating Henry out there as trade bait and are doing so at a reasonable discount…I’m biting. He showed week-winning (and Championship-winning) ability down the stretch for those either faithful in his upside or decimated by injuries.
Despite fairly horrid QB play, WR Corey Davis manged to improve across the board from his injury limited rookie season. Not a great return on a nice target-load, he should continue to improve in his third season, and remains the clear WR1 in TEN. The talent behind him isn’t so bad, but the Titan’s offensive system and Mariota’s injury sure made them look weak.
A broken ankle in week one put an end to what was a four-year run of 100+ targets, 63+ receptions and 800+ yards for TE Delanie Walker. His return to full health could be an excellent bargain in this depressed TE market. His role in this offense was huge, and without him they definitely fell off.
TEN promoted in-house TE’s Coach Arthur Smith to OC, and he’s already talking up Derrick Henry, and doesn’t sound like he will shake up last year’s system too much.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Finally a team with that magical combo of no defense plus offensive pizazz! The perfect fantasy friendly environment. The addition of the offensive minded Bruce Arians as Head Coach should positively impact the play calling of new OC Byron Leftwich as he sinks or swims in his official role.
The rumors of QB Jameis Winston’s demise were greatly exaggerated. Like typical sheep, folks blew up twitter sounding death knells regarding Winston’s future, while at the same time embracing career traveling Gipsy QB Ryan Fitz-one-month-of-Magic!
Fool you twice, shame on sheep.
HC Arians has the potential to turn Jameis into a top five superstar fantasy QB. I think it is possible and even likely. Maturity comes slower for some, but Winston has the beginning of a Hall of Fame resume and trajectory should that switch get flipped.
The weak spot to be filled here is in the running game. After seeing almost nothing from RB Ronald Jones as a rookie, I’ve been buying him at a steep discount hoping he figures out how to play at this level. I was quite high on him and feel I have not seen enough to give up on the 21 year old just yet. Surely TB will be adding new talent at the RB position, so my expectations are tempered. The run blocking was not very effective, so I’m hopeful they improve their offensive line this offseason.
Combining for over 5300 yards and 36 touchdowns, their passing game was firing on all cylinders.
WR’s Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and TE O.J. Howard head into 2019 with very juicy roles in store. The potential losses of both Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson to free agency could open up almost 180 lost targets. I’ll have a wandering eye on WR Justin Watson, just in case he makes a little noise this offseason, but any talented addition to this offense will deserve attention.
Seattle Seahawks
Here we have our first team with the 2018 HC and OC both returning for 2019, but I’d guess for fans of QB Russell Wilson and the passing game, there are legions of Seahawks fans that wish OC Brian Schottenheimer’s run-heavy throwback approach was a one-and-done.
As one of RB Rashaad Penny’s biggest fans, I was blindsided by the ascendance of RB Chris Carson. I’ve never been one to handcuff my RB’s, but 2018 inspired me to adapt this strategy (when the system is right) moving forward. I couldn’t believe Carson could flat out take the RB job from such a talented first round pick, but watching game after game looking for flaws, I came away impressed by Carson.
I had some intuition that Penny was a slow learner, and when I read an article from SEA coaching hinting at just that, it set my mind at ease. I no longer expected Penny to win the job in 2018, but just benched him and watched to see if he made progress. By the end of the year, it was Penny with the (small sample) highest per-carry average thanks to some flash plays that reminded me of his college tape.
It is hard to say going forward if Carson will continue to be able to hold Penny off, but my money will be on Penny thanks to no changes in the playbook terminology or coordinator.
After showing some upside early on in his career, WR Tyler Lockett finally put it all together in 2018. Doug Baldwin started to look healthy in the second half of last year, and it seems these two will continue to dominate targets in 2019. Behind them, there are jobs to be won.
The Seahawks TE position seems fairly filled, but none of them really wowed anyone outside of Dilly-Dilly’s micro-sample early season flash.
Despite low passing attempts and yardage, Wilson took all the snaps at QB and was very efficient, tossing a career high 35 regular season touchdowns and matching a career low with only 7 interceptions. At the age of 30, for the first time in his career Russell failed to score a rushing touchdown during the regular season, but fear not, he scored one in the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers
2018 may have been a blessing in disguise. With prized free agent RB Jerick McKinnon and QB Jimmy Garoppolo going down to injury early, they really got a chance to play deep into their bench and see what they had, ending with the perk of getting the second overall pick in a talented 2019 Draft class.
With a weak receiving corps, they got to lean on TE George Kittle, and boy did he shine! He’s the only player currently rostered that I’m invested in or much interested in at the moment.
RB Matt Breida showed tremendous toughness and wound up with over 1000 yards from scrimmage with solid per-touch averages. They mixed and matched other running backs into HC & OC Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system and rarely missed a beat. This bodes well should McKinnon get back to full health and earn a nice role. His system (and that of his father Mike) have earned my respect for pumping out fantasy performers.
WR Dante Pettis didn’t have the total numbers you like, but looking over his game logs, he definitely popped for about a month. I was pretty down on him, so I’ll wait and see if he can repeat how he flashed next year, but he’s earned some respect from me. After all of the camp hype, I was surprised to see such low usage from WR Richie James. Not uncommon for a 7th round rookie to have trouble gaining traction, but I just didn’t see a ton of talent blocking him. Garcon is out, and Goodwin turned back into Goodwin, so I’m thinking the top two wide receiver roles are very much open for the taking by either free agents or rookies.
For the sake of health alone, I could see the 49ers adding a running back. Depending on how talented that RB is, odds are this will still be McKinnon’s job to lose. The 49ers RB’s totaled 100 targets in 2018, and Jerick is in line to receive a nice chunk of them.
The jury is still out on Garoppolo, with a career high of five starts in an NFL season. I liked what I saw in 2017, and it’s worth noting he’s had below average support, so I’ll stay neutral and see how much he improves with a highly anticipated major upgrade in surrounding talent heading into 2019.
Pittsburgh Steelers
There appears to now be some clarity regarding the future of both RB Le’Veon Bell (unrestricted free agent) and WR Antonio Brown (up for trade to select bidders). That is a relief.
The Steelers offensive system has been outstanding for years. It seems like anyone they’ve allowed to carry the RB load has been a fantasy star, from Le’Veon to DWill to Conner to Samuels. Great spot to be in, so whomever that is should be golden.
The chicken or the egg debate regarding did Big Ben make Antonio Brown a star by feeding him so many targets, or did Antonio Brown make Big Ben one by putting those targets to such good use? I think they are both very talented and can perform at high levels without each other.
James Washington is getting a lot of hype, and I am invested plenty in him, but not cracking the 9.50 FPTS barrier even once the entire year gives me pause. He is talented (won the Biletnikoff Award for best WR in college) and his potentially new and vast opportunity with Brown leaving town could be money.
Can Juju beat the coverage that used to cover Antonio? Can Washington beat the coverage that used to go to JuJu? Great question.
I’m not a big fan of how they use tight ends in Pittsburgh. More lineman than receiver. Not bad, not special. Nothing I’d reach for.
Big Ben has been hot of late, finishing top five in passing yards last year (2017) and number one in 2018. He also improved on his rumored horrible road splits. His Home and Road splits were in the same ballpark regarding TD’s and INT’s, and he actually threw for 401 more yards in his eight road games vs. home.
Philadelphia Eagles
It sounds like QB Carson Wentz experienced growing/ego/maturity pains as he dealt with missing out on the most exciting part of the season due to injury in back-to-back years. The unlucky Week 13 closed the door in his face both in 2017 and 2018. All the work. All of the team gelling and improving as the weeks progressed and right when the playoff push gets the most exciting…Slam. That would be extremely frustrating. The NFL Machine waits for no man, and the Show Must Go On. I’ll be betting on a very motivated Wentz out to re-establish his reputation in 2019. He dropped to QB16 (9th round) in the $250 FFPC Bestball league I’m currently drafting.
TE Zach Ertz is the only Eagle I get excited about drafting. His role in their offense has been as reliable as can be, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Talent wise, I do love Dallas Goedert. I think he would go bonkers if Ertz got injured. What he did with the targets he received didn’t miss a beat from what Ertz did with his. It is worth noting that 2018 was the very first time Zach Ertz started all 16 games.
Philadelphia’s WR’s and RB’s have performed admirably, but both positions are due for an upgrade. This year’s NFL Draft and the Free Agency Sweepstakes should swirl plenty of rumors their way. PHI is one of the more high upside landing spots this year, and should they add a rookie or FA that I am impressed with, I’ll be bumping them up my rankings.
Oakland Raiders
With three first round picks, Draft parties will be rocking in Oakland (and Vegas!). Love him or hate him, John Gruden is a high profile coach and playing for him in a state of the art facility in Las Vegas, Nevada has some nice pull when recruiting.
I hear that QB Derek Carr’s job is safe, but in my opinion, the job of every offensive skill position in Oakland is up for grabs. Gruden & Company didn’t trade away their most valuable chips (Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper) in order to fill a team with crusty old vets. That was last year’s plan. A true talent lacking tank job.
Soon we will get to witness the method behind Chucky’s Madness.
Oakland has a cargo ship of targets and rushing attempts to be won, and I’ll have my eye on whomever gets handed a Silver and Black jersey this offseason.
I predict a total team makeover via youth movement as they play out their final year before the move. So many jobs will be lost it will make your head spin. They will struggle with growing pains as they attempt to gel, leading to another season of losing, resulting in more high draft picks in 2020.
It is much easier to stomach losing when your team is filled with players still wet behind the ears.
New York Jets
Speaking of a young team with growing pains. The 2018 Jets are similar to what I imagine is in store for the 2019 Raiders. You must relax and eat losing nine of your last ten games as just part of the deal. You know the song. “Ooh-oo child, things are gonna get easier. Ooh-oo child, things'll get brighter.”
I wasn’t a big fan of QB Sam Darnold’s (redshirt) sophomore season at USC when he had 22 turnovers (13 interceptions and 9 fumbles lost) in 14 games. His 17 turnovers in 13 NFL games as a rookie was actually an improvement. This Touchdown-to-Turnover ratio needs to swing hard in the right direction fairly soon, but good quarterbacks usually make nice strides in their second and third seasons.
Count me as one who was very impressed by TE Chris Herndon’s rookie campaign. Nice production from what was long considered a write-off season for tight ends as they historically struggle to grasp the nuances when making the jump from college to pro. Both Herndon (22) and Darnold (21) are pups, and judging by how well year one together went, that year two leap and beyond looks promising.
Outside of these two, the only other offensive skill player I think has job security is WR Robby Anderson. His game is great for bestball where you are never forced to decide whether to start or bench him.
Hard to be too optimistic for 2019 with regard to the hiring of former Miami Dolphin head coach Adam Gase and offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains.
The opportunity is ripe for those who land with the Jets, so my gut feeling that it is a lower upside place for rookies/FA may not be so bad in reality. It’s not like the players recently under performing there were highly talented, so that could be more of the problem than scheme or line play.
New York Giants
QB Eli Manning is great for fantasy football. Not so much for being your starting fantasy quarterback, but rather for how he leans on the talent surrounding him. Some QB’s spread the wealth. Not Eli. Odell Beckham’s on the field? You can bet your ass he’s getting leaned on target-wise. Odell is injured? Evan Engram, here you go. Draft a stud RB who can catch? Try these targets on for size, Mr. Barkley. That is predictable fantasy goodness.
Most of what I’ve read sounds like Eli will be back for 2019, but there are whispers in the dark of coming change.
RB Saquon Barkley was better than advertised. Hard to imagine improvement outside of scoring more touchdowns. Flat out stud number one pick in dynasty and redraft as a 22 year old. You draft him and you can pencil in 20 fantasy points damn near each and every week as the floor.
In what could be called “The Year of the Diva” all signs are pointing to the Giants parting ways with WR Beckham. WR Sterling Shepard is a fine WR2, but is far from special. NYG will need to add a WR1 type should they let Odell walk. The receivers below Shepard have little job security.
TE Evan Engram has moments when he loses focus, but I am a big fan of his talent. With a potentially increased target load on the horizon, he’s currently my fourth ranked TE in both redraft and dynasty.
New Orleans Saints
The core coaching staff and quarterback in New Orleans have been working together for 10 years now. A tweak here and there, but pretty much business as usual. QB Drew Brees just keeps chugging along. The improved defense and run game can lead to times when the pressure to pass is eased, but looking over his 2018 stats, there has not been a drop off.
There is a worthy debate as to whether or not losing RB Mark Ingram would be good for RB Alvin Kamara. If you polled dynasty players invested in Kamara, I’d guess they would prefer a more balanced share of the rushing load if it meant Kamara stays healthy. His early season numbers were awesome while Ingram was serving his suspension, but who knows if he could continue such a load for 16 weeks. His touch totals at Tennessee (NCAA) were around 140 per season. That increased to around 200 as a rookie and increased again to 275 last year. With the increase in load, his elite scoring ability remained elite, but his per rush and per catch averages dropped noticeably and were on par with those of Ingram. I’m guessing the Saints will find a complementary RB to share the load and help keep Kamara explosive.
WR Michael Thomas has been a machine. Blew up as a rookie, and has improved his totals in both receptions and yards in each of the past two seasons. There isn’t much behind him, with the only interesting guy being WR Tre’Quan Smith who had “That one time, at Band Camp!” game twice last year in weeks 5 and 10, but the rest of his games were garbage, and he was a ghost in the playoffs.
What a perfect year to fill the void at tight end with one from this draft class! Brees knows how to use a good one. Right Jimmy?
Any talent that lands in New Orleans will get the scrutiny they deserve, as the Saints have a long history of fantasy friendly production.
New England Patriots
QB Tom Brady will be back, but we must wait a few more weeks for Gronk to decide on his future. Sounds like he is at the facility taking care of his body, but then again, are we not technically still playing out 2018 contracts as the NFL’s official season winds to an end at 4:00pm on March 13th?
RB Sony Michel managed to grab a large percentage of the rushing load (as a 1st rounder should) but the Tricksy Hobbits in New England love to play the Shell Game with their opponents, rewarding a wide receiver or fullback with uncommonly large proportions of the goal line riches.
If I had to guess, I’d say TE Rob Gronkowski returns to the Patriots for 2019. This is an all time level historic window that only has a short life remaining. His back issue sure made him look different this year. If that issue is here to stay, adding a TE from this rookie class would be brilliant.
WR Julian Edelman looked great, and they kept WR Josh Gordon on their team and he got a Superbowl ring, so it still must be in the realm of possibilities that he returns. There is plenty of room for more WR and TE talent to be added as they groom their team long term.
Thank you for reading PART ONE.
Be on the lookout for PART TWO to be released before things get juicy and the players hit the NFL Combine field on Friday March 1st, 2019.