Your 2018 Signal Focused "All-Carnie" Team
You've spent the last three hours in gridlock regretting your earlier decision to "enjoy the morning for once" on your checkout day. That twenty minute dip in the pool followed by a sit down brunch buffet with your bags already packed away in the truck actually kind of sort of felt like an extra day of vacation to all of the family but you...the dreaded driver.
What was supposed to be an easy four hour trek home doubles in duration thanks to construction bottle-necking lanes, and a few sub-optimal drivers who decided to play car tag.
Your wife is fast asleep with her head rested on a pillow wedged against the window and your two sons toggle from napping to listening to music to playing video games back to napping. You thank your lucky stars that your half-dose of modafinil has you as sharp and focused as ever with no lingering signs of the morning's gentle hangover.
The sun has just dipped behind the upcoming range of mountains as you head west toward the coast. A beautiful warm and still night, actually, ruined by the glare of brake lights. You notice something standing out on the horizon, and as the traffic begins to ease, you see all the razzle and dazzle that brightly colored paint and strung-together light bulbs can deliver. A traveling carnival in full bloom.
Your children Ooh and Aah at what looks like "Kids Vegas" to their eyes, but you warn them that in reality it is just a bunch of traveling carnival barkers blasting outdated, overplayed pop while charging top dollar for dull rides, rigged games, and junky prizes weathered and faded by the sun.
Time for some eerily similar fatherly fantasy advice.
The players included in this article are the "All Bark, No Bite" Carnies you should think twice about drafting in 2018.
(Public Service Announcement: Actual Carnies may indeed bite.)
Fade Freeman? Are you serious?
I'm as serious as Homey the Clown.
Devonta Freeman is a player I respect. He's just one of those rip-off games like the $3.00 per shot "Long Shot" with one basketball and an undersized rim. If he were more like the "$3.00 for three shots" games, I'd give it a go.
The problem is he's got a younger, larger, hungry tiger by the name of Tevin Coleman who has quietly been eating into his workload. A reminder from an earlier article:
“Looking closely over last years stats, it appears that under new OC Steve Sarkisian, Tevin is finally getting more involved in the run game as well as showing to be more efficient with his receptions, averaging 13.6 (2016) and 11.1 (2017) to Freeman’s 8.6 (2016) and 8.8 (2017). That isn’t good. Coleman’s carries per game have gone up each year, from 7.25 (2015) to 9.18 (2016) to 10.58 (2017), including an almost even split in last years playoffs (24 carries for Tevin to 28 for Freeman).”
Put me in the camp that thinks this split is real.
I have no problem drafting Freeman, but not at his current Carnival pricing. In the three roughly $300 entry leagues I've done this month (early August) Freeman was drafted at 2.04, 2.11 and 2.11. I understand that many high stakes veterans focus on safe floors in the early rounds, but give me guys like A.J. Green, Mike Evans or even T.Y. Hilton in that range where at the very least, the competition for gameday touch-counts are tiger-free.
I'd prefer to draft a high volume wide receiver over Freeman, then go pick up Tevin Coleman at his more Midway friendly 7th round price tag.
Ahhh, Happy Gilmore. You foul mouthed abuser of the elderly, you.
My reasons for fading Jerick McKinnon fall in line with my earlier stance on Freeman, but without the rock-solid production that Freeman has on his resume. Therein lies the rub. McKinnon has no resume.
Now I do give some credit to the team trust that comes with contract pedigree. The problem is that McKinnon just set his career best for touches last year, and it was less than 13 per game. If you enjoy basing your mid-2nd-to-early-3rd round investment on a sample size of games you can almost fit on one hand, then you may be related to Hilal: The Musher. (Love Hilal's endless twitter enthusiasm, but when he starts touting one of "my guys" my heart palpitates and I lose a few days off my lifespan and thus need to workout more to gain them back.)
“The term “Mush” was popularized by Robert De Niro’s “A Bronx Tale,” which included a famous quote: “Eddie Mush was a degenerate gambler. He was also the biggest loser in the whole world. They called him mush because everything he touched turned to mush.”
Robert De Niro initially had trouble finding a suitable actor to portray Eddie Mush, so he asked Chazz Palminteri if they could find the real Eddie Mush to play himself. They found Eddie Montanaro in the same neighborhood still losing bets. When they casted him, they became worried that he might “jinx” the film. On Eddie’s first day of filming, it rained.”
Over his last two (best) seasons in the NFL, Jerick's rushing average (3.58 per carry) looks just like Matt Asiata. Not good.
Sure, he looks pretty smooth sometimes, but his career high in scoring still stands at a measly 6 touchdowns, and that took the full 16 regular season games, plus 2 playoff games for a total of 18 games to reach.
I can get his lower-volume doppelganger Chris Thompson four or five rounds later if I want that skill-set.
One last thing that I can't seem to shake is the feeling that Jerick McKinnon will have a harder time than most running backs adjusting to the new rule regarding the use of the helmet as a weapon. Call it a hunch, but I think his style, unless changed, will draw many yellow flags.
Did that limb just make a crackle or am I hearing things?
Too late now, I'm going further out.
Count me among the many who drool over the group of skill players assembled by the Chiefs. Top notch across the board.
If the Kansas City defense fails to improve (bottom 4 vs. pass, bottom 8 vs. run), I lick my chops at the potential this offensive unit has for scoring in 2018. Everyone should be betting on RED.
I know I am using far too much "vision" in this take, but it feels like one of those old Kung Fu Theater films, where the badass of all badasses just quietly watches the warring from a distance, waiting until he spots a worthy opponent, so as to not waste his moves dominating lesser men.
I can read. I see the videos of Mahomes making sweet music with Tyreek. I get it.
One problem. Sammy Watkins is the Kung Fu Master. He hasn't shown it in preseason yet, but he will. Buy him now if you enjoy bargain shopping. By the time you get to see it, Watkins price will Bitcoin-spike in a flash. I'm making my goal to release this article before Kansas City's second preseason game kicks off later today for this very reason.
That same player who was the cream of the crop in the creamiest wide receiver class I've ever witnessed looks back to health. He even chopped the doo, and has a swagger about him I've not seen in years.
Contract Pedigree? Check!
Draft Pedigree? Check!
Talent and opportunity? Check!
I'd happily draft Tyreek Hill on a rare occasion where he drops a little, but so far that drop hasn't happened. He's been scooped up in the middle part of the 3rd round like clockwork. The additions of Patrick Mahomes and Sammy Watkins to a team already sporting positional alphas Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt leaves so much production up for grabs, I feel they should all be devalued a little bit when ranking or drafting.
That not being the case, I'll let others select "Reek" in the 3rd, and I'll go a different route there, scooping Watkins three or four rounds later and watching him whoop that fantasy ass.
MOUNT UP: There's a NEW sheriff in town!
When I think Alpha Male, I think of African Lions, Gray Wolves and Mountain Gorillas.
Most of the time they are chill, but when challenged, watch out!
Frank Gore has been a STARTING running back in the NFL for the past 13 seasons, logging his first start back in 2005. In my opinion, this will be his 14th season as a starter. There is no Beta in his game... it is all Alpha. If you want to take his job, you need to out work him in practice, and that isn't happening in Miami in 2018.
Gore is back in his hometown. His roots. Not soft San Francisco or stale Indianapolis, but the dirty dirty south of Miami Florida, home of Ricky Ross, Ace Hood and the Two Live Crew. He must feel like he's back in college at The U.
Reports out of Dolphin's camp sound like he's the same old Gore. Grinding his tail off and not concerned with the D.O.B. on his driver license. All that matters is another day to grind. Compete. Dominate all comers.
Drake is in trouble.
Gore has shown soft hands in the passing game throughout his career, and can pass protect with the best of them. His dip in yards per carry the past three years has less to do with age (his running back mates all struggled) than the garbage Colts run blocking game. I expect his yards per carry to jump back well above 4.0 in Miami.
After watching him break out last year, I do find Drake interesting, but he's just way to Carnival priced for me in the mid-to-late third round when you can draft Gore 10-to-12 rounds later and get much more bang for your fantasy buck.
Nowhere to go but down. Period.
DeShaun Watson made six starts as a rookie. Not sixteen. Six.
Humans love to extrapolate the best and fill in the unknown voids with more best-case dreaming when you have a sample like he put up last year. Watson's pace over 16 games would have been 4933 total yards and 53 total touchdowns. Dream on.
He is being drafted before Aaron Rodgers.
He has been drafted as the FIRST quarterback off the board in two of my three August drafts!
What do we have here? A rookie who many worried took far too many big hits in college, goes pro and fails to reach the "Midway" point of the NFL's grueling schedule, now coming off a torn ACL, yet going FIRST overall at his position.
Might as well slap his smiling face on the entrance to one of those creepy-clown Funhouse walk-through rides.
Am I down on him? Nope. Fun player.
Could you pay me to spend my 5th round pick on a freaking short resume quarterback coming off of surgery, when there are so many talented quarterbacks in 2018 that they're running around like wild Minions in Gru's Lair deep into the 15th round? Nope again.
Public Service Announcement #2: "Don't draft placeholders in the 7th round of your fantasy drafts."
That's all Jamaal Williams is.
I'd put him third behind both Aaron Jones and TyMont on the Packers depth chart.
Like that funny-scary scene from What We Do In The Shadows (Must-see film), Jamaal is the chased sacrifice "Nick" and Aaron Jones is the hunting vampire "Petyr" lying in wait.
Once the two week suspension is complete, I expect plenty of run from Aaron Jones, and predict he will become not only the unquestioned number one RB in Green Bay, but also a high impact fantasy player for this 2018 season and many more to come. I've drafted him in 46% of my redraft leagues, and have managed to acquire Jones via drafting or trade in 5 of my 7 dynasty leagues (and I'm still trying in the other two).
Some interesting quotes to consider:
“I want you to know, I’m probably one of your biggest fans in this organization, so if you want to make a statement, now is your time.”
“He’s a good runner. We need to get him more opportunities.”
For a bit more reference to the upside of RB Aaron Jones, in his final three seasons a the University of Texas-El Paso, Jones averaged 22.95 FPTS per game in 2014, 26.25 FPTS per game in 2015, and a whopper-head 29.05 FPTS per game in 2016!
The three Packer running backs all seem to go off the board in a similar phase of drafts, and your best bet by far is to avoid wasting that pick on Jamaal Williams.
These aren't your parent's Panthers.
"Why of course not, they were founded in 1993" you might say, but you get the point.
With the back-to-back first round additions of Christian McCaffrey in 2017 and D.J. Moore in 2018, the new-look Carolina Panthers will be on full display this season.
The fact that "We had nobody else to throw to last year" Devin Funchess still gets drafted ahead of D.J. Moore is fucking laughable.
I'd put up solid side bet money if there are any Funchess truthers out there reading this.
So many fantasy drafters fail to see a common scenario when teams hit hard by injuries turn to whomever remains upright for added volume out of pure desperation. That is GREAT for snatching off the waiver wire and using for that particular season, but where they go wrong is failing to read the tea leaves for how things should shake out once the new season begins.
With TE Greg Olsen back, CMC getting an uptick in usage, and the addition of new Alpha WR Moore, Funchess will be relegated to a complementary role in 2018.
Moore is a rare gem of a wide receiver. I watch tape of player after player, and most just blend together like soup, but every once in a while a player will just seem to move at a different speed or be slippery elusive and show uncommon inner drive for greatness. That's Moore in a nutshell. A special, special player.
I laughed out loud during a recent draft when Funchess went late 5th round.
Do yourself a favor and pass on that nonsense. Instead, pick up D.J. Moore in the 7th.
Here we have back-to-back players with the same kind of scenarios playing out.
Last year it was the Briscut-to-Doyley Show, where "Just-a-guy Jack" (108) went tow-to-toe with T.Y. Hilton (109) for the team lead in targets.
That ship has sailed.
Andrew Luck is back, and he's brought a new friend into the mix with the addition of TE Eric Ebron.
Neither Ebron nor Doyle has ever managed to light it up in the touchdown department, with a fairly pathetic five touchdowns being the career high in a season for both.
That said, Ebron's WORST NFL season (his rookie year) for yards per catch (9.61) still averaged close to what Doyle averaged in his BEST season (9.90).
Ebron is clearly the better athlete (sweet combine vs. Doyle getting no invite), has the draft pedigree (Ebron went top 10 overall in his draft vs. Doyle being undrafted), has contract pedigree (Ebron will make more than Doyle both this year and next), is three years younger and has the better NFL and college resume.
Jack Doyle has been playing college and pro football for nine years now, and has never...I repeat NEVER...managed a single play, fluky or otherwise, where he managed to run for 40+ yards. Why? Because he's O-Lineman slow and gets caught from behind.
"Just a guy Jack" had a career year as the "last man standing" for the Colts in 2017, and even then had jack shit for career best yards (690) and touchdowns (4) for a guy who was gifted 108 targets (Ebron's career high for targets is 86).
Jack's fantasy stats were boosted by his empty receptions (8.63 yards per catch) on a team going nowhere. Do you really think that will ever repeat?
I do not.
That "popping" sound you just heard was from those horses over there being turned back into mice and the carriage to a pumpkin.
I admit it was a pretty cool storyline last year: "USC's own Robert Woods returns home to Los Angeles."
For a brief moment, when he scored all five of his 2017 touchdowns over a four game span, it looked like Woods would actually become a player you would no longer see in that weekly list of waiver wire wide receivers. That span actually tied his career best for touchdowns. Pop!
Rookie Cooper Kupp, who Los Angeles selected 69th overall in the 2017 draft, managed to lead the Rams wide receivers in targets and yards, while Sammy Watkins paced them in touchdowns, yet in many leagues I still see people drafting Robert Woods before Kupp. Crazy.
Not only does that pretty much ignore Woods substantial body of work in the NFL where he has proven to be quite mediocre, but it also seems to ignore their new WR1 with the signing of Brandin Cooks.
By my math, that slots Robert Woods (at best) 4th on the target totem pole behind Cooks, Kupp and Gurley. Not what I'm looking for in a guy I see drafted in the 8th and 9th round.
I'd much rather have the aforementioned D.J. Moore in that range or a Jordy Nelson or DeVante Parker type who should be in the mix for top two target loads on their respective teams.
Chasing the 2017 Robert Woods is a move only a Pumpkin would love.
SWEET!!!
Nothing like sweating out a deadline and then beating it by a full two hours!
That gives me time to study up on tonight's preseason DraftKings slate.
I'll be the one with Sammy Watkins in my lineup. Tonight is going to be "The Great Reveal" and his draft price is going to jump! (At least in my Mind-Movie.)
The images in this article were all made prior to the minor injuries to McKinnon and Jamaal.
Gotta love the NFL season being back in action.
Everyone loves Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays, but you figure over half of your life in made up of Mondays-through-Thursdays so I've found tricks and ways of falling in love with every day of each week, but damn it is easy when we have NFL Football on television to make Mondays and Thursdays just as special as the weekend!
Thank you Football.
Hope you enjoyed this article and as always, thank you for reading.
You Rock!