A Signal Focused Baker's Dozen of First Round Picks for 2018 Redraft
Remember back in the heyday of online poker, when the hyper aggressive newly rich online guys and gals were upping their games and entering the WSOP live bracelet events to challenge the brick and mortar guys? It was super entertaining to see how they'd fair. A gigantic pot comes down to an all-in gut shot straight flush draw. You see the camera zoomed in on the cards as the player ever-so-slowly pushes each card over just enough to see the corner, then slowly moves to the next as he keeps hoping to catch that dream card. That's kinda how I feel when I get the email saying "FFPC Draft Order Notification: FootballGuys Players Championship DRAFT TONIGHT!"
I'll usually first go pour a dram of scotch into a Glencairn (with just a splash of water) backed by a large water. Once I'm settled in and ready for the show, I'll open the email, mouse over to the right, click & hold the scrollbar then sloooowly ease it down, like I'm slow-playing the card reveal in poker. Sometimes I'll forget what I named my team and have to go EXTRA slow thinking "Nope, Nope, Is that me? Naaa...Nope, YES!"
So far I've drafted a 3-Pack and managed to get the 1.07, 1.08, and 1.01 pick, in that order. The dream here is to somehow have things fall my way and scoop up two from this Baker's Dozen, but they were all long-gone by the time it came back to me when picking first overall. In my very personal, double secret, color-tiered rankings, these beauties are the players worthy of being dipped in GOLD.
So I dipped them...
1.01 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
2017 20.52 FPPG (10) Dallas Cowboys
2016 21.29 FPPG (16) Dallas Cowboys
2015 28.28 FFPG (13) Ohio State Buckeyes
What can be said about Earth's most famous Ewok that hasn't been said already? Ahhh, Star Wars franchise...it seems you've always had just a little too much jumpshark in your veins. I guess now would be a great time to explain a few things. The "FPPG" stands for Fantasy Points Per Game. I should call it something like Signal Fantasy Points Per Game as I do track things a wee bit differently, but having to decode the various verbiage branding from so many websites is annoying. Must stay focused.
I love how the Fantasy Football Players Championship gives an extra half-point PPR to TE's (1.5 PPR), making them much more significant, so I incorporate most of their scoring system, minus tracking two-point conversions and fumbles lost. I also (should they make it) include NCAA Bowl and NFL Playoff games into their yearly averages and games played. That number in parenthesis is (games played) and I do throw out some games. For example I throw out NFL games when a player is injured in the first quarter and does not return, or college games where they got virtually zero targets and zero carries or got hurt in the first quarter and were out for the game.
As you can see, Zeke has the sparkling floor of a freshly waxed lane. What you cannot see (decided three years was enough of a sample) is he also put up 23.05 FPPG over 15 games in 2014 for Ohio State. His suspension last year puts a light wrinkle in his otherwise near-mint career availability.
Being able to rely on your players to be active each week matters.
The Cowboys were making good on their promise to get Elliott more involved in the passing game, going from around two receptions per game as a rookie to over two and a half. His "To Be, or Not to Be?" active last year was a real drag on the entire team. Despite such lawyered up drama with the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, Zeke still banked over 1250 combined yards and 9 TD in only 10 distracted games. With the departure of Dez, the retirement of Witten, and additions that are "happy to be" in the NFL, I believe Dallas will feature Elliott in 2018 and may even Double Feature him, feeding him as many bowls of touches as he can handle. That is "Mmmm, Mmmm" good and I don't think anyone in the league is more hungry than Zeke is. As a big believer in SITG (Skin in the Game, Nassim Nicholas Taleb) I put my money where my mouth is and in the FootballGuys league where I was gifted the 1.01 pick, I selected Wicket W. Warrick first overall while flashing a toothy smile.
1.02 Le'Veon Bell RB PIT
2017 23.88 FPPG (16) Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 24.63 FPPG (15) Pittsburgh Steelers
2015 18.53 FPPG (6) Pittsburgh Steelers
A natural born fantasy stud, Le'Veon dropped 24.4 fantasy points in his very first rookie game and has never looked back. Sure he's had some innocent drama. Sure he has, and currently is, holding out. Sure he wants to be King of the running back contract...and he should be! For six seasons out of his last seven he has played in 13 or more games. His injury shortened 2015 (that may have recently stung some folks) is the only thing holding him back from being the 1.01 in these rankings, and even that looks like more of an outlier than anything trendy.
Losing Todd Haley (who has been the Offensive Coordinator in Pittsburgh his entire career) may hurt some, but Bell did have almost identical FPPG in his final two seasons at Michigan State (16.75 & 23.54) as he did in his first two seasons as a Steeler (16.84 & 23.16).
He can take what the defense gives, battling patiently by land or attacking swiftly by air. He's handled some very heavy workloads, and rewards those who invest in him year after year with bountiful feasts later in the season. Over his 16 career December games he's averaged a whopping 26.02 FPPG, and that, my dear friends, is the month when league championships and Grand Prizes are won!
1.03 David Johnson RB ARI
2016 26.96 FPPG (15) Arizona Cardinals
2015 14.08 FPPG (18) Arizona Cardinals
2014 25.78 FPPG (14) Northern Iowa Panthers
We fantasy ballers are a jilted ilk. One season burnt by injury and you've lost them forever. It can take quite a few years to gain that confidence back. Meanwhile, if you believe in that player you can sit back and enjoy it as they fall to you every once in a while like when I had the 1.07 pick I mentioned and DJ fell to me. Score!
I recall around this time last year when Johnson was airing his 1000 yards rushing/1000 yards receiving goals to the media, and he has reiterated them again this offseason. Even in the game he was injured in last season, he had scored 15 Fantasy Points in the first 41 minutes of a close game. Had he kept that pace, he would have ended up with a 22 point game. The Cardinals treated him like the superstar he is by allowing his wrist injury to fully heal back to 100%, and it now has. His legs and hands and mind are where he makes his bread and butter, and they are all as healthy as can be.
Looking closely at his averages in his first two seasons in the NFL and they are unsurprisingly close...the guy is a machine. He averaged around 4.3 yards per carry and 11.0 yards per reception as both a rookie and a second year player, and his touch-to-TD ratio was about a TD every 16 touches as a rookie (13 TD) and a TD for every 18 touches in his second year (20 TD). The only real thing that changed was Arizona recognized his talent level, pushed him atop the depth chart, and cranked up the volume. Lost season aside, not much else has changed and the volume will be outstanding once again. In his last healthy season (2016) he was such an elite scorer, it took the second best year of Aaron Rodgers' career (in a QB weighted scoring system) to keep him from being the top fantasy scorer of them all. He outperformed the second best running back (Zeke) by over 84 Fantasy Points, and crushed the highest scoring wide receiver (Antonio Brown) by more than 100 fantasy points on the season and over 5 more points per week. His 410 Fantasy Points in 2016 outscored every player in fantasy football in 2017, including #1 QB Russell Wilson and #1 RB Todd Gurley. It also outscored every one of the top fantasy players (including QB) from the 2015 and 2014 seasons. Everyone.
Don't make be yammer on about his consistency in college with proven durability, playing the full slate (49 of 50) of games virtually injury free with strong workloads and averages of 25.49 FPPG, 26.40 FPPG, and 25.78 FPPG. As Jim Carrey in The Cable Guy so eloquently said regarding trying to meet hot chicks in the prime stage of a house party..."He who hesitates, masturbates." Draft Him already!
1.04 Todd Gurley RB LAR
2017 25.15 FPPG (16) Los Angeles Rams
2016 12.51 FPPG (16) Los Angeles Rams
2015 16.18 FPPG (13) Los Angeles Rams
Like that golden voiced cowboy narrator from the bowling alley bar in The Big Lebowski, I'll try my best at a hard "G" (as in "eagle") every now and again when pronouncing "Las Ann Geles" even though I am half-way fluent in Spanish. I just like the way it flows all choppy-like.
Gurley is a Stud. Gurley was the number one non-QB in fantasy last year. I see it time and time again, the top player in Year X becomes the consensus first draft pick in Year Y. News Flash! Year Y is a whole new ball game. If in 2013, you drafted the top non-QB from 2012 (Adrian Peterson's 2K year) you would have been disappointed when his production fell off and he ended up as the 27th ranked non-QB in 2013. If in 2014 you drafted the top non-QB from 2013 (Jamaal Charles) once again you'd likely have been a bit let down holding the 20th ranked non-QB from 2014. Even last year (2017), if you drafted the top ranked non-QB from 2016 (David Johnson) well...you know how that turned out. All I'm trying to get across is that there is a bit of dice-throw-luck built into this game, and to beware chasing the previous year's results...unless it is Antonio.
Jeff Fisher sucked, Sean McVay is a genius, yada ya. He wasn't such a genius while getting his score doubled up and bounced in the first (Wild Card) round of the playoffs. That is known around these parts as the dreaded one and done. OK, enough with the 49ers-Rams rivalry digs, I must give credit where credit is due, the Rams used Gurley's skills in a most excellent way. He looked like he did back at Georgia when he was dropping 27 FPPG in 2013 and 2014. The problem is the history of NFL defenses using their offseason to study tape and focus on trying to stop players coming off monster years. If he puts up another season with a 20+ FPPG average in 2018, it will be hard to not bump him up this list. It must be some Show Me state crap, where I need to see it twice to believe it.
Sure, he did it twice in college, but both seasons with the 27 FPPG had red flags of injury, missing three games in 2013, seven games in 2014 and even missing the first few games of his rookie season in the NFL. He shows great promise if the play calling and production can remain as potent as it was last year when it seemed everything went well for the Rams, but I'm still taking the three guys I listed ahead of him here first.
1.05 Saquon Barkley RB NYG
2017 28.48 FPPG (13) Penn State Nittany Lions
2016 24.99 FPPG (14) Penn State Nittany Lions
2015 19.16 FPPG (10) Penn State Nittany Lions
After going all "Goo Goo Gaa Gaa" and borderline drooling over the potential impact of Saquon in my Rookie Breakdown, (and assuming you brilliant readers dislike repetitive drooling) I'll try to focus on the bags and bags of groceries Barkley brings to the table immediately this season. Some drafters may wish to "see it first" before buying in, so when you happen to be in those more conservative leagues, like I happened into when I had pick 1.08 and he fell to me, you do not judge, you celebrate!
Like I mentioned in my breakdown of round one, if WHO? (Darkwa) and YUCK! (Gallman) can both average 4.3 ypc or more behind that NYG offensive line, they simply cannot be that bad at blocking. (Smiling to self)...WHO? and YUCK!...sounds like they could be a couple cartoon underbosses for Hades. These are the types of replacement level players I instinctively refuse to add into my player database as to not clog it up with guys who will be out of the league shortly. Those two combined for 282 attempts, 53 receptions, 1536 yards and 6 TD with reasonable workloads while combining to miss four games. Anything they can do, Barkley can do better.
Aside from feeling possessed to dance like an enchanted mop watching Barkley's college highlights, when looking deeply into the eyes of his stats, they also call to me. The B2B seasons combining for close to 1900 yards and 21+ TD's each, the steady statistical improvement year-over-year, the triple threat of rushing, receiving and scoring, the Signal Focused Explosive-Play Champion with TEN plays going for 40+ yards in 2017. So far I have not found any other player to match that feat from any year. He just recently turned 21 and has the world at his fingertips working in New York City. If he can resist the temptations of marketing and growing his brand while continuing to hone his game, the sky is the limit for this young man.
1.06 Dalvin Cook RB MIN
2017 16.85 FPPG (4) Minnesota Vikings
2016 29.10 FPPG (13) Florida State Seminoles
2015 28.13 FPPG (12) Florida State Seminoles
Dalvin started off his pro career with a solid 16.7 Fantasy Point game, followed up with a dud 8.4, and then began to click in week three when he scored his first touchdown and dropped an outstanding 27.9 point game, reminding investors of his Florida State days. By game four however he was lost for the season. Even in his final game he managed to put up 14.4 FP's in just over a half of play. He was injured inside the first five minutes of the 3rd quarter, and using our mind movie, we can imagine had he played out the full 60 minutes at such a pace, he would have rocked a 24.7 FP game, bringing his 2017 FPPG up to a more respectable 19.42. Quite a small sample, but also quite impressive, with the added bonus of an upward trend as he was getting acclimated to the speed of the NFL, the playbook, etc.
I have watched film from years and years of NCAA and NFL players, and would put Cook's college highlight film up against anyone. Barkley's was also beautiful to watch, but I'd still have to lean Dalvin for pure beauty of movement and excitement of plays. The stage is set in Minnesota for a playoff run, and that same team that made Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon very startable will make Dalvin a star.
1.07 Alvin Kamara RB NOR
2017 19.97 FPPG (17) New Orleans Saints
2016 19.71 FPPG (11) Tennessee Volunteers
2015 14.84 FPPG (13) Tennessee Volunteers
Over the last two years, Kamara has averaged a TD per game (28 TD in last 28 games) despite a fairly light load on him physically at around 13 touches per game. That is very impressive efficiency. It is hard to say a person can handle a heavy load until they actually handle a heavy workload, and I'd bet New Orleans will not put too many more touches per game on his plate in order to keep him active. Alvin has missed a couple games and has been concussed, but all in all has been a pretty tough player, withstanding a bit too many unnecessary hits, yet coming back for more.
Kamara is a super fun player to roster because he's exciting to watch, where each touch he gets holds the threat of a big play. With Ingram out for the first month, he may absorb a little added load, but I don't suspect the Saints will push their luck. He is what he is, and that is enough for me. I lean running back early, as the best ones are on-par scoring-wise with the best wide receivers, and I feel I can scoop up WR's with higher upside later in the draft than my opponents can scoop up higher upside RB's later in drafts. As you also can see from the custom Signal Focused graphics, Kamara is a stylish stud.
1.08 Antonio Brown WR PIT
2017 22.70 FPPG (15) Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 20.46 FPPG (18) Pittsburgh Steelers
2015 23.59 FPPG (17) Pittsburgh Steelers
Rejoice you "fade running back" crowd! Antonio is the WR version of Zeke. He may not average 25 FPPG, but he will surely turn his nose up to anything under 20. He outworks everyone around him, always trying to improve. He has shown extremely good durability and consistency and has out-performed every one of his WR brethren for the past four years.
With Antonio and Le'Veon still rocking their prime, I see no reason why new OC Randy Fichtner would change things much in Pittsburgh. Brown is on a four year streak of 20+ FPPG seasons, which earns my respect and is one of the reasons why so many fantasy players have recently switched their trust from RB to WR. You can hype up guys until the cows come home, but seeing it over and over is what makes them earn the honor of being first rounders, and Brown has earned everything.
1.09 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
2017 20.79 FPPG (15) Houston Texans
2016 12.64 FPPG (18) Houston Texans
2015 19.36 FPPG (17) Houston Texans
DeAndre is a player I had many shares of right out the gate as a rookie, but after being frustrated by the junk the Texans were rolling out at QB each week, I waited for a high point and sold him off everywhere. Lesson learned. Never shed true studs...and Hopkins is a true stud. He taught me another lesson as well...to keep my nose out of other people's business. I think I was fairly non-sober and after watching one (of many) of his interviews, I commented to him on twitter something like "Try not to use the word "definitely" so much." BLOCKED! (???) Damn! The first person to block me on Twitter, and the only one I've noticed.
Gotta love it when your wide receiver needs to cut slots into his extra large gloves in order to fit his giant hands into them. Hopkins runs beautiful routes, has incredible hands in traffic, and is in the running for best body control in the NFL the way he can twist like a dropped cat and somehow sneak a toe-tap in before falling out of bounds.
Nuk was clicking with fellow Clemson Tiger Deshaun Watson, scoring seven touchdowns in their first seven games together including an 8 reception, 224 yard, 1 TD performance the game before Watson suffered a fluky non-contact injury during midweek practice, ending his season. All signs point to a smooth recovery, and investors are salivating over watching their connection get even better with more time spent working their crafts together. All aboard!
1.10 Odell Beckham WR NYG
2017 18.50 FPPG (4) New York Giants
2016 17.96 FPPG (17) New York Giants
2015 21.29 FPPG (15) New York Giants
Beckham likes to shake his drama-rattle every now and then, but my spider senses detect that he just might be slowly maturing. He's being taught some big life lessons with the privacy invasive video his shady "friends" made public. Contract posturing aside, things are looking good for a return to health as well as a return toward the top of the WR rankings.
Bursting onto the NFL scene with a touchdown in his first game, Odell has proven to be a most dominant scorer at wideout, stringing together back-to-back-to-back 12, 13 and 10 touchdown seasons, and had a 12 TD pace going last year before shutting it down after four games due to a broken ankle.
There was a little lull in the dominance from the "Class of 2014" wide receivers, with Watkins and Cooks playing musical chairs, Allen Robinson and Odell missing most of the season, and many others suffering slump years, but that 2017 lull is like a Bitcoin dip, and provides a fine buying opportunity for those with enough chips to lure them away from other investors.
Harking back to the open outcry days of pit trading lore, the sound dominating the floor right now is definitely "Buy! Buy! Buy!"
1.11 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR
2017 14.96 FPPG (17) Carolina Panthers
2016 29.48 FPPG (11) Stanford Cardinals
2015 27.81 FPPG (14) Stanford Cardinals
I would like to spend a little time here to point out what Christian McCaffrey has done over the past three seasons, with a focus on his final two years at Stanford. I flat out fell in love with last year's 2017 running back class, and McCaffrey was my number one ranked rookie draft pick, followed by Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook. For different reasons, all three under-performed, but that's the great thing about dynasty leagues...injuries (Dalvin), being drafted to bad year one situations (Mixon), and under-utilization (McCaffrey) can all be overcome as the teams clear space for them and build around them via free agency and future drafts. You need to exercise patience when you truly believe, and my eyes had heart shapes for these three and still do.
Now we all know Christian has a well developed receiving game. He's scored five, three and five touchdowns through the air over his past three seasons and has five 100+ yard receiving games, including one in Carolina's playoff game last year. Being so involved in the passing game gives him a nice floor, and the coach-speak this offseason hints at a nice jump in workload.
Compare McCaffrey's 23.6 touches per game (over his final two seasons with Stanford) against any running back from the past couple years. That is a very, VERY heavy load. He seems to get lathered up and uses his advanced level cardio to keep pushing the pace, wearing out defenders as the game goes on. In the measly three games where the Panthers actually gave him double digit rushing attempts last year, he averaged 4.4 yards per carry. That is fine.
After an outstanding college career, and a dominating combine, Carolina invested the eighth overall pick in the 2017 first round to get him, and after using him lightly as a rookie, I can see their plan to clear out some room and crank up the the volume in 2018. He's a proven heavy load player, combining for over 1900 yards and 16 TD one year, and over 2600 yards, 13 TD in the other. Sometimes you just have to trust your eyes and gut, and this is one of those times.
1.12 Kareem Hunt RB KC
2017 18.29 FPPG (17) Kansas City Chiefs
2016 22.68 FPPG (13) Toledo Rockets
2015 20.53 FPPG (9) Toledo Rockets
I was confident last season that Kareem had more talent than Spencer Ware and felt it wouldn't be long before he snatched the main RB role in Kansas City. I had no clue he would go from dart throw to top five overall pick in Main Events, but after hanging THREE touchdowns and a combined 246 yards on NFL Kickoff Night in Vegas, (and against the defending Champion New England Patriots and IN their house no less) the hype rightfully went out of control.
Hunt kept it going strong, dropping monster game after monster game for over a month, then went cold, failing to score a touchdown in nine straight games before righting the ship and getting back to mashing over the final month or so. Rumored to be honing his route running this offseason in anticipation of an increased role, I just have a little worry that there are too many moving parts in Kansas City heading into 2018.
Patrick Mahomes looks like a stud, but who will he develop a rapport with first? Sammy? Kelce? Reek? Hunt? That is the million dollar question! (or at least the $250,000.00 question!) Hunt is not the biggest nor the fastest guy, and a part of me thinks there could be a bit of a let-down coming. I still want him on my teams, but pushed him down a little, trusting my gut. Always keep a trusting ear open to the whispers of your gut instincts.
1.13 (or 2.01) Julio Jones WR ATL
2017 16.48 FPPG (18) Atlanta Falcons
2016 16.35 FPPG (17) Atlanta Falcons
2015 23.19 FPPG (16) Atlanta Falcons
Thank you for reading this article showing the Signal Focused top twelve players for redraft in 2018. Being the jolly good Baker that I am (with emphasis on BAKE) I shall toss in one extra player to make it a cool Baker's Dozen to show my appreciation.
Some people are burying old Julio, complaining about the dud performances, the tapping himself out of games to recover from this or that wear and tear injury that comes from seven years of NFL warfare. Others are jokingly pumping NeverJulio fake news, hoping his low touchdown total last year causes him to slip in 2018 drafts.
The average year from Julio Jones over the past four seasons (including playoffs, remember) looks like this: 107 receptions, 1628 yards and almost 7 touchdowns. It doesn't take long during a draft to get to the point where that looks much better than the alternatives, and for me that point is here.
Atlanta doesn't change much year to year. I suspect they will not change much yet again in 2018, and the dice rolls that came up Snake Eyes in 2017 regarding Julio catching touchdowns could come up Boxcars in 2018. The rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated, and he'll finish this entire season and playoffs still only 29 years old. He's got the Alpha role locked up, has kept his body in a prime Greek Godlike state, will be in year two of their new OC's system, and Vegas has the Falcons as the favorites to win their NFC South division. Lots to like.
Shake a Luck Box and light some celebratory fireworks for a spoiled rotten group of drafters setting the "ADP" in a way that will almost guarantee you can draft as talented and proven a player as Julio Jones with your second round pick in upcoming drafts!
Once again, I thank you for reading. It was fun to dig into the veterans as we dipped our toe into into the world of REDRAFT after being focused for so long on the 2018 rookie class.
One thing that pleased me greatly was to find out that after around 7-to-10 days of not writing, I got a growing itch to sit down and start typing. For each day I put it off, busy with life, etc...the itch grew stronger, almost dominating my leisure mind with the desire to create.
I wasn't certain how things would unfold, as I can become completely exhausted after a long day of research and writing, but this little internal push do 'do the right thing' was a welcome surprise.
I hope you enjoyed.