Signal Focused Series (Part I) Navigating the first few turns: Round Two
The worst part about getting your official draft slot for an upcoming main event is that the swirling daydream dies. Eleven other possible draft slots (along with the unique player hopes and strategies that they each entail) dry up and turn to dust, leaving you all alone with your new little buddy.
Some years have a crystal clear "Big Three" that you can bank on being gone by pick four across events, while other seasons can have a "Top Seven" or more that separate from the pack as the most desired foundational pieces for the battles to come.
There are drafters like myself who covet the turns, be it the first pick or the twelfth, knowing that at least for that second of back-to-backs each time, NOBODY can steal your pick. They cherish the stress-free cocktail mixing, beer running or bathroom breaking (or merely cheatsheet crossing) that twenty two picks of down time builds in.
Other players prefer the middle picks of slots six and seven, as they feel their turn is always on the horizon, with the shortest wait times and the ability to easily adapt to draft board runs.
It is a double edged sword, though. There are seasons where BECAUSE you drafted toward those ends that you were forced to reach for players you KNEW would not make it back to you, thus ending with a roster filled more with players you actually wanted vs. settling on players who "fell into value" (whatever the Hell that means).
Often, those "Ledge" picks like 1.03 or 1.10 or the "Edge" picks like 1.02 and 1.11 allow for more of the gambler inside of you to kick in, thinking "just maybe" this or that player you are targeting now might fall to that next pick you have coming up right around the bend and BAMN! ...you got sniped. Again.
Just call me Sherpie McSherpa as I attempt to guide you through the roughest terrain, where fantasy championship visions hang on the edge of a Tibetan cliff in these extremely important first few turns of our 2018 redraft season! Let us now begin our post-first-round journey up Championship Mountain!
First up in this Signal Focused Series is Part I: Navigating the First Few Turns: Round Two.
2.01 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
2017 20.23 FPPG (16) New England Patriots
2016 15.64 FPPG (7) New England Patriots
2015 20.87 FPPG (17) New England Patriots
Gronk is the best TE in fantasy football by quite a Large Marge. For as fun-loving of a guy as he is, his consistent scoring has somehow rendered him an almost boring draft pick, which is bullshit. I've seen drafts where Kelce goes before Gronk and just scratch my head. Kelce's career best season came last year where he managed to receive even more targets per game than Gronk, yet still got outscored 18.48 FPPG to 20.23 FPPG.
Despite "four more years!" of NFL production on Gronkowski's resume, he and Kelce were surprisingly both born during the Spring (May) and Fall (October) of the same year: 1989.
Gronkowski has scored between 20.23 and 23.48 FPPG in five of the past six seasons. That is consistent, bankable alpha scoring.
Where many of his top peer tight ends have either new competition for targets (Dallas Goedert, D.J. Moore, Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley), a new quarterback (Mahomes) or are just becoming too worrisome due to non-stop injuries (Jordan Reed), Gronk remains the cornerstone on which the Patriots build their offensive scheme.
You will gain a positional scoring advantage over all of the other TE's that your league-mates trot out against you, and an extreme advantage when you face TE's outside the top three or so.
Every season Gronk has played in ten or more games (6 out of 8, including playoffs), he's managed at least 10 TD's, including seasons with 14, 15 and 21 touchdowns!
Ignore the verbal leveraging of contract negotiations in New England and enjoy this future Hall of Famer as he continues "TO GRONK" on into his prime.
2.02 Melvin Gordon RB LAC
2017 18.01 FPPG (16) Los Angeles Chargers
2016 19.58 FPPG (13) Los Angeles Chargers
2015 8.31 FPPG (14) Los Angeles Chargers
Being a top pick in 2015 dynasty rookie drafts, investors were selling Melvin Gordon for pennies on the dollar after his dismal (and scoreless) rookie season. He turned it around and has dropped B2B twelve touchdown seasons, and has a lot in common with the guy listed after him. Both have weekly minimum volume locked up, plus goal line work and many more targets than I thought either would ever earn. Both he and Fournette also share the very rare feat of a 30+ FPPG season in college. (2014 34.64 FPPG (14) Wisconsin Badgers)
I'm more of a believer that having multiple threats on an offense breaks up how a defense can defend you. Removing TE's Hunter Henry (and Antonio Gates?) makes them easier to defend, and I doubt the volume really goes up, as he already was in the top 4 in touches last year, and top 9 in 2016 (despite missing three games). Without Henry and Gates, I just wonder how often they will have those second half lead, stat-padding quarters.
On the other hand, the Chargers attacked defense heavily in the 2018 NFL Draft and I'm sure adding three-time Pro Bowl Center Mike Pouncey will be very well received. The Raiders have a new coach and both Kansas City and Denver have new QB's, making LAC seem like the most stable team in their division (and the Vegas favorite) heading into 2018 and if one of the Williams Boys can emerge as a threat worthy of game planning against, Gordon should be good for a tick more than what he did in 2017.
2.03 Leonard Fournette RB JAC
2017 18.11 FPPG (16) Jacksonville Jaguars
2016 23.13 FPPG (7) Louisiana State University Tigers
2015 31.47 FPPG (12) Louisiana State University Tigers
In an 11-on-11 human Chess War with Captains and Generals and rotational Infantry, I understand it is hard to say just one thing had too much of an influence on what caused a team to go from a 3-13 record to 10-6 and a playoff run, but hitting on a first round running back surely must be in the conversation. Dallas went from 4-12 to 13-3 after drafting Zeke the year prior, and Carolina went from 6-10 to 11-5 after drafting Christian McCaffrey. Even though it took a couple years to oust the old coaching staffs, Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley now have their teams over .500 as well, yet folks keep trying to badmouth elite level running backs like they are a dime a dozen and easily replaceable. I couldn't disagree more.
Fournette would do well to quiet his critics by stringing together a full season of health for his investors. There is no debate regarding how important he is to Jacksonville's game planning, touching the ball more than half the snaps he's on the field, and that volume alone makes his floor a cushy one. His 2015 season at LSU shows how insane the ceiling can get, but the missed games are a real downer, so until that trend goes away, he'll continue to drop down the board a bit into Valueland.
2.04 Davante Adams WR GB
2017 15.89 FPPG (14) Green Bay Packers
2016 15.60 FPPG (19) Green Bay Packers
2015 8.51 FPPG (14) Green Bay Packers
As a card carrying member of the exclusive "30+ FPPG Club" (2013 34.38 FPPG (13) Fresno State Bulldogs) Adams has not scratched his NFL ceiling yet.
Be it the slow chemistry building he experienced early in his career (possibly due to nagging injuries), the three concussions in the past two seasons, or Brett Hundley manning quarterback, Adams simply applies his trade and makes the most of each opportunity, patiently waiting to be anointed "The Man" in Green Bay and taking that next step.
He's flirted with elite status, scoring 14 and 10 touchdowns in B2B seasons, but has yet to receive that Lion's Share of targets that fellow star wide receivers attract each year. Where studs like Antonio, Hopkins and Beckham can get 160-to-190 targets in a regular season, Adams has been working his magic with a mere 120 or so.
That looks to change this season with the return of Aaron Rodgers and exodus of Jordy Nelson. The sky is the limit with Davante, and he'll be rising up rankings faster than a rogue champagne bubble!
2.05 Michael Thomas WR NOR
2017 17.06 FPPG (18) New Orleans Saints
2016 17.31 FPPG (15) New Orleans Saints
2015 14.47 FPPG (13) Ohio State Buckeyes
Michael Thomas transitioned from the NCAA to the NFL level flawlessly, doing almost exactly what he did as a Buckeye, but with a larger load. So consistent as a pro, from his fantasy points per game (17.06, 17.31) to his yards per reception averages (12.28, 12.36). New Orleans looks to be quite similar as an offense to what we saw last year, so what you see is what you get with Thomas, and that reliability is highly valued in the high stakes arena.
His durability is what gets him ranked above a very similar elite producer in Keenan Allen. Where Allen has scored more than seven touchdowns only once in his eight year (college + pro) career, Thomas has done so in three out of his last four seasons, and although many will see only five touchdowns when looking up his 2017 stats, he added two more TD's during an excellent playoff run.
I'd expect the touchdowns to rise back to the 8-10 range, and his role with the Saints to be "steady as she goes" making him a fairly rare safe (hits close to double digit fantasy points in his down games) yet explosive player (averaged 20.65 FPPG over his final seven games including playoffs).
I take note any time a player of his caliber publicly states lofty goals such as the following quote:
“It’s only my (third) year, and everyone wants to see what I do next,” Thomas said. “That’s what makes it fun. That’s what I live for, to be able to take that next step. Once the numbers line up at the end of the day, I feel like I’m going to be there with the best of them. That’s the only thing I can control.”
What more could you possibly want from an early round draft pick? A true football player with the passion to engrave his name on the wall alongside the greats that came before him. Sign me up!
2.06 Mike Evans WR TB
2017 13.41 FPPG (15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2016 18.76 FPPG (16) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2015 14.17 FPPG (15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The slow gelling of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been disappointing across the board. Things are off to another fine start with the possible three game suspension of Jameis Winston. Evans hasn't missed a beat when Ryan FitzMagic starts, as win or lose Fitz knows how to butter his fantasy bread by feeding his team's star player.
Mike has been a mild let down so far with his Good Cop/Bad Cop routine regarding his touchdowns. Flip flopping from 12 TD to 5 TD, then 12 TD to 3 TD, at least the pattern is leaning the better way.
I still have hope that the Bucs will pull things together and be fantasy gold. I like their new additions on offense (Ronald Jones, Justin Watson, expanded role for Chris Godwin) and defense (Vita Vea, Jason Pierre-Paul) and each skill position is now filled with talent. The entire Buccaneer team can be had at discount prices based on the drafts I am currently in.
Evans should continue to demand his alpha workload, and if Winston can mature a bit, the touchdown cannons could be firing more than ever before in Tampa Bay this season!
2.07 Keenan Allen WR LAC
2017 17.39 FPPG (16) Los Angeles Chargers
2015 20.44 FPPG (8) Los Angeles Chargers
2014 12.81 FPPG (14) Los Angeles Chargers
I'd been in the camp that was a bit down on Keenan, lumping him in with the Landry types that chew up a high volume of targets, yet spit out low touchdown and yards per reception totals. Chain moving grinders. 2017 taught me that just maybe I was judging him based on injury depleted seasons, as both his TD total and reception average came up into a respectable range not seen since his rookie year.
QB Phillip Rivers has the experience and arm talent to not need to go through all of his progressions in order to find what he wants in a play, so his tendency to lean on one target is a real plus. He can and has turned Joe Blow type players (see Tyrell Williams, Danny Woodhead) into weekly starters, so if he likes you AND you have talent, AND you can stay on the field...you are as golden as Pony Boy.
Allen should be receiving even more defensive attention with the Chargers currently set to run out either Bronco-Bust Virgil Green at tight end, or else the 38 year old version of Antonio Gates. This leaves LAC stars Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen with plenty of slop in their imaginary bowls to feast on, but with the caveat of extra attention to their every move. Buy the targets and pray for the recent run of good health to remain.
2.08 Joe Mixon RB CIN
2017 10.38 FPPG (14) Cincinnati Bengals
2016 25.68 FPPG (12) Oklahoma Sooners
2015 15.76 FPPG (13) Oklahoma Sooners
This is another of those "Trust your Instincts" moments. Mixon has not earned this spot in my rankings, yet I'm ranking him here anyway.
I see a Bengals team on the rebound, with a return to a strong running game like the days when their lead back received between 270 and 300+ attempts. Mixon has the prototype body to handle such a load. Looking at the top of the Alpha Running Back food chain, we see very similar body types: Zeke (6' 0", 228 lbs), Le'Veon (6' 1", 225 lbs), David Johnson (6' 1", 225 lbs), Todd Gurley (6' 1", 227 lbs), Joe Mixon (6' 1", 228 lbs).
What has me so high on Mixon is how well he moves. His balance, patience and change of direction, with his body wound tight like a spring, always at the ready as he goes from cruising to burst like he's run by one of those Bose volume control pod wheels. Although his arm length is officially "unknown", based on his excellent stiff arms, beautifully extended one-armed receptions, and his ability to put a hand on the ground to keep his balance, I'd say they are well above average. His 10 1/4" hands are also a welcome trait for maximizing his extraordinary receiving ability as well as helping with ball security.
He's got the size needed to keep adding to his touch-total as he develops (still just 21 years old) into the three down workhorse I believe he will become. All signs point to a positive turnaround in Cincinnati, and Mixon should be getting the lion's share of the load. He's rumored to be lighter, quicker and faster after trimming his close to 240 pound rookie playing weight back down to that spry 225 pound build that prototypical NFL Bellcow backs tend to weigh.
Sometimes you must "lead the curve" and pay up to draft these breakout players before they actually break out, and this is one of those times.
2.09 Rashaad Penny RB SEA
2017 31.33 FPPG (13) San Diego State Aztecs
2016 15.94 FPPG (14) San Diego State Aztecs
2015 7.23 FPPG (12) San Diego State Aztecs
Like I've mentioned already, it brings a big smile to my face watching Penny play ball. What stands out to me most is his field vision and ability to see holes opening before they open. His SDSU career SEVEN kickoff return touchdowns (tying the all time NCAA record) demonstrates that vision to a tee, with how he sets up defenders to commit to an angle early, then uses it against them.
His size is bordering prototypical (5' 11", 220 lbs), and he has a gear that does not get caught once he turns on the jets.
His 2017 season destroyed the competition, combining for 2383 yards and 25 touchdowns while displaying his Bellcow potential, surpassing the 300 touch mark and finishing as strong as ever with five consecutive 200+ yard rushing, multi-TD games.
Seattle has praised his receiving ability, like what they've seen with his pass protection, and have announced their plans to return to more of a balanced, smash mouth style of football in 2018, with Rashaad being placed front and center of such plans. Penny sits alone atop the list of players I'm most looking forward to see playing this preseason.
2.10 A.J. Green WR CIN
2017 14.43 FPPG (16) Cincinnati Bengals
2016 20.71 FPPG (9) Cincinnati Bengals
2015 17.28 FPPG (17) Cincinnati Bengals
After four consecutive seasons (2012-2015) of double-digit wins in Cincinnati, the past two have been quite forgettable. From multiple injuries to pathetic offensive line play, I'm writing 2017 off to the needed growing pains as they transition toward youth and a return to health.
A.J. Green's body of work has been a thing of beauty. The 2017 season was his WORST fantasy-wise since his rookie year. I'm tossing it out and giving the entire Bengals team a clean slate heading into 2018. Dalton is rumored to be in great shape, there have been Bigfoot sightings regarding Tyler Eifert, speedy John Ross has been making a little noise, and they drafted a 1st round Center (Billy Price) and traded Buffalo for Cordy Glenn looking to shore up the leaks in their offensive line play.
I'm comfortable thinking the Bengals return to being highly competitive this season, with A.J. Green and Joe Mixon being the centerpieces to that success. Nobody listed below him can match the five consecutive seasons scoring between 17 and 20 FPPG (from 2016 through 2012), and getting back into that kind of a groove is to be expected in 2018.
2.11 Travis Kelce TE KC
2017 18.48 FPPG (16) Kansas City Chiefs
2016 16.39 FPPG (17) Kansas City Chiefs
2015 14.53 FPPG (18) Kansas City Chiefs
The phrase "You're gonna need a bigger boat" comes to mind when trying to divvy out all of the action that's on the horizon for the potentially explosive new-look Chiefs. I'm having as hard of a time as the rest of you, trying not to give too large of a serving to all four of the studs they have on offense.
Kelce gets a bump for being one of the elite scoring tight ends, as that list is a short one. It is hard to say a guy has peaked when he's improved his fantasy numbers with each passing year, but it's out with the chum water for TE-friendly QB Alex Smith, and in with Admiral Gunslinger!
Kelce set a career high with nine touchdowns last year, but he'll need to show me twice to convert me, as his previous NFL high was only five, despite playing in extra playoff games the past three years. Another small red flag is that the impressive college statistics that Mahomes put up at Texas Tech were very TE-unfriendly...dare I say TE-ugly. Two different worlds, I know.
He's big, healthy, in his professional prime, and chicks dig him. That's good enough for me to buy in.
2.12 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
2017 16.68 FPPG (17) Buffalo Bills
2016 19.75 FPPG (15) Buffalo Bills
2015 15.06 FPPG (12) Buffalo Bills
Proving that "Size Ain't Shit", LeSean McCoy has surpassed the 300 touch mark in six of his past eleven seasons, despite being labeled as undersized. His investors recoil in horror and lop weeks off their lifespans with each time he delays in getting up from a tackle, holding his knee or ankle, hobbling to the sideline, then returning to the field looking as sharp as ever after the unplanned commercial break. Hmmm, that sure sounds a lot like World Cup Soccer!
An inspiration to those 205 pound backs everywhere, McCoy was listed at 5' 10" tall, 198 lbs. at his NFL Combine. Throwing out his rookie year, LeSean has rewarded his backers with a career worst 12.84 FPPG season setting his floor at basically 13 points per week. He's played in at least 12 games per season throughout his 11 year career, which is outstanding reliability.
McCoy has mixed in six years with between 19 FPPG and almost 26 FPPG, dating back to his Pitt Panther days. A Pennsylvania Native, he's spent his entire career in the chilly North East, going from the University of Pittsburgh to the Philadelphia Eagles to the Buffalo Bills. You never hear him whine about the weather. It's that kind of mentally tough DNA that you can bank on to continue to roll in 2018.
*****
That is enough trekking for this day. We have made it safely through round two, managing to avoid potentially dangerous pitfalls. Time to set up camp, eat a light meal, get some shut eye and prepare for the morning's continued journey up Championship Mountain!
I hope you enjoyed Part I.
Be on the lookout for Part II in the coming week.
As always, thank you for reading.