Dynasty Rundown of Round Two
With Day Two of the 2018 NFL Draft in the books, many dynasty players are now trying to create a preliminary ranking, slotting these rookies into their personal top ten or entire first round. Judging by what is left to be drafted today, I doubt there will be much change at the top of such lists. One of the more challenging parts of playing dynasty fantasy football is having the foresight to think in terms of how rosters may shake out by 2019 or even 2020. Those with the patience to bump a player's value up thinking in this manner can win big. Others (myself leaning this way) believe the NFL, like life itself, is often far too unpredictable, as trades, injuries and most of all NEXT YEAR'S NFL DRAFT can and will throw a monkey wrench into the best laid plans.
I absolutely love it when the teams I have invested in draft offensive linemen early. The trickle down effect of that split second extra time to throw or the few extra inches in the hole created can drastically improve the effectiveness of the entire offense, extending drives and opportunities. That said, I will be ignoring them insofar as this write up, as well as ignoring all of the skilled defensive players picked that will earn their living trying to flat out ruin our quest for stats. Here are my initial dynasty reactions to the QB's, RB's, WR's and TE's drafted in round two.
2.03 RB Nick Chubb - CLE
Rumors were swirling that CLE would add a top RB from this class. With Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson already rostered, part of me thinks this is a poor landing spot for the rookie. The other part thinks CLE is full of shit after mashing the gas pedal of disinformation regarding "Tyrod Taylor will be our starting quarterback" and then drafting Baker Mayfield, likely relegating Taylor to backup as soon as week one. What is weird is Hyde pretty much was a let down prior to last year, and his 2017 fantasy season was buoyed not so much by his rushing (3.9ypc), but rather his receiving (59-350) stats. Moving to Cleveland crushed the hopes of repeating such a high (87) target share, as Duke is one of the best receiving running backs in the league. Where does Chubb fit in? It's not like the current staff inherited Hyde, they just went out and traded for him! I was in love with Chubb prior to his injury, but this new larger version has lost a ton of what made him so special. He tore it up alongside Todd Gurley as a freshman (22 FPTS/gm) and was off to an even better start solo as a sophomore (almost 26 FPTS/gm), but since his injury he lost over ten FPTS/gm from his peak and settled in at around 15 FPTS/gm as a junior and senior. When discounted for college, those numbers are not great. He will be volume and TD dependent in CLE and may have to wait until 2019 to earn such a load.
2.06 RB Ronald Jones - TB
JACKPOT! The Help Wanted ads for a new RB in Tampa Bay was one of, if not the TOP landing spot for this class. As my third ranked rookie and RB3, this fit gives a nice little boost to his dynasty value. In typical fashion, the fickle dynasty community is quick to bury a player when they don't get to see the combine numbers. He was a high school district champ in the 100m dash. That and his tape is good enough for me. Despite being on the smaller size (think McCaffrey), he carried a heavy load for USC, and gets a bonus for his pass pro not being listed as a weakness, but rather a strength. His hands seemed more than adequate in the passing game, and fumbling has not been an issue. Nice floor/ceiling combo, and in the mix for a top 3 rookie pick.
2.08 WR Courtland Sutton - DEN
His size and 3-cone numbers stood out at the combine. Pushing Sanders to slot will make for a tasty bevy of targets for QB Case Keenum to prove he has what it takes to stick as an NFL QB1. I don't think the Broncos are in win now (or even win later) mode, and wonder if this is the beginning of a drawn out rebuild for Denver, as they are littered with aging vets and unproven starters. From a talent level, he seems to be third in line, with youth on his side. DEN finally gets that WR3 they've been looking for, which doesn't get me too excited for early dynasty production.
2.10 TE Mike Gesicki - MIA
My TE1 from this class, I can't say I'm overly excited with this team fit. Gase and OC Loggains at least have some history of using TE from their days in CHI. This Dolphin roster has some holes to fill on offense, and Gesicki looks more than ready to do the filling. Insane combine that would have out performed every single TE from last years class that we were all gaga over. His blocking sucks though, which may be good for him fantasy-wise, but bad for Drake & Company. Here's to hoping MIA has a plan to use him right out the gate, as he has no competition.
2.11 RB Kerryon Johnson - DET
Here was another coveted landing spot for RB, and Carry On Luggage (my RB5) is a strong fit. (and always flies free!) He has a bunch of lower valued vets in front of him, and I believe has the talent to carve out a very large load by the time rookies magically turn into veterans after getting their fill on Thanksgiving. I usually frown on NCAA yards per carry under 5.0, but he gets the SEC bump. He showed receiving (24 rec) and touchdown (20) chops, and is one of the youngest players in this draft class. I should have ranked him as my RB4, but instead allowed the "wisdom" of the masses to influence my ranking. Yet another lesson learned...ignore the flapping mouths of folks who rarely even put in the work needed to form an opinion.
2.12 WR Dante Pettis - SF
Here is a pick that smells like a bust for dynasty. Pettis didn't crack my top 10 rookie WR's, yet gets a boost for landing well. Garoppolo (here is a visual to always spell his name correctly: imagine an ICE COLD swimming pool full of kids, and the person who is "it" with their hands in front of their eyes calling out "Marco!" has a wet suit on. The rest of the kids are freezing their asses off to the point of stuttering back "P-Polo" and there you have it. Two P's.) :-) Now where was I? "Garo!?!" gets a decent player who is smallish and "runs good routes" yet consistently performs boxscore vanishing acts like a Vegas magician. Being drafted by the 49ers will have dynasty guys salivating at opportunity, but Garcon, Goodwin and Taylor may be bigger hurdles to playing time than many think.
2.15 WR Christian Kirk - ARI
Captain Tate is a sweet and reliable target for QB Rosen to grow with. My rookie WR3 has a solid history of being a reliable target. His game translates well to the NFL based on torching SEC secondary's for TD's and coming up big in bowl games. Excellent floor with upside. One of the few wide receivers I believe could be flex worthy right away.
2.17 TE Dallas Goedert - PHI
So many narratives, which to choose? The amazing roast that PHI K Akers gave while sniping the Dallas-to-Dallas dream after Witten's surprise retirement leak? Joe Dirt? Classic line to rival Dallas while IN Dallas "The last time the Cowboys won a Superbowl, these rookies weren't even born yet!" (paraphrased) I for one would have much preferred Goe Dirt going to DAL, but PHI showed there is room for the action they fed Burton last year. All-in-all not the best spot for my TE2 to land, but at least he has a capable QB to play with as he learns some trade secrets from the mighty Zach Ertz.
2.19 WR Anthony Miller - CHI
Excellent team fit for my pre-draft rookie WR6. CHI is finally trending up after dumping Jeff Fisher-East's John Fox and his outdated style of everything football. Miller just might be a potential gem in this draft class. Nice opportunity to develop opposite Allen Robinson. As those Wisconsin boys might say, "he's an ascending post-draft player, eh?" ("eh?" added for Canadian beer-drinking emphasis to remain sane during White Walker extended winters) ;-)
2.27 RB Derrius Guice - WAS
BUST ALERT! This kid has a few screws loose. Sure, he can bang and has a great opportunity to be the early down guy that the Redskins have been looking for, but I just have a gut feeling he will screw it up somehow. Not a fan of players this late in their career being late for meetings, etc. Hell, he was even late on draft night when it was his turn to come out on stage live. He's already whining about not being able to express himself. Yikes. Have fun dealing with that every day. He put up nice stats as Robin to Fournette's Batman in 2016, getting to face tired and beaten down defensive players a lot more susceptible to long gains. He still did fine in 2017, but lost over 2 yards per carry without Batman. He'll be running to the sideline on 3rd downs as Thompson trots in, and will be a very TD dependent asset in dynasty. The chip on his shoulder may be offset by how poorly WAS run-blocked for fellow large men Perine (3.4ypc) and Kelly (3.1ypc) and I'm guessing it could be tough sledding for the guy who fell the furthest in this draft class.
2.28 WR James Washington - PIT
Excellent pick! This was who they hoped their Rick James lookalike was back when they drafted fellow top-heavy no-neck Sammie Coates! ;-) They got it right this time, as James Washington can ball! (multi-sport high level athlete) My pre-draft rookie WR4 found a nice home to groom for post-AB life in Pittsburgh. Very sneaky Sis after letting Martavis walk to OAK. Thumbs up! Getting to go to rookie camp and load up on second string practice reps with fellow rookie and future QB Mason Rudolph is icing on the cake.
2.29 WR D.J. Chark - JAC
If we were drafting combine performances, he'd be a first rounder. We're not. He's tall and skinny and athletic, but seems to be a deep threat artist and one-trick ponies are always available off the waiver wire. JAC should work him in and he may be a worthy bestball type on the weeks he scores, but I'm fading his dynasty upside as his career high for touchdowns in a season is only three.
That bacon-wrapped-prawns my dynasty breakdown of the second round. The dynasty offseason is sometimes dark and full of terrors, but we have survived the dead news zone as well as lying season, so there will be plenty of opportunities for commentary from here on out! I'll be continuing to analyze each round in the coming days to help prep for the fast approaching Dynasty Rookie Drafts!
Dilly Dilly!
(My son recently pointed out to my surprise that the people in beer commercials never actually DRINK the stuff! Blasphemy!)