Intitial Reaction to Round One
After sitting through what seemed like an hour long commercial with small bites of commentary from the "experts" sprinkled in, it was nice to start the actual draft off with a Rick Flair "WOOOOO" at the selection of QB Baker Mayfield 1.01. That wouldn't be the last such reaction, as this draft played out as advertised with plenty of trades, surprises and slides. Here is my quite biased dynasty reaction to the picks that followed.
1.01 QB Baker Mayfield - CLE
Although the Mayfield hype was steadily growing the closer it got to draft time, most rankings and mocks I saw over the past few months had Darnold, Allen or Barkley as the favorites to go 1.01. As soon as commish Roger Goodell's mouth formed the "B" sound, I was yelling "WOOOOO" with a few "In your face's" tossed around for good measure! BANG! My top ranked QB gets top ranked treatment. Off to a fine start! Mayfield's draft pedigree is a direct threat to those Tyrod Taylor Best Ball drafters. I predicted Tyrod would be a short bridge QB if Cleveland drafted one of the "ready now" QB's and that looks to be the case here. Nice boost for Jarvis Landry's crispy routes and Josh Gordon's more meaty ones. CLE drafted a winner, and his swagitude is infectious enough to put the Browns back in the win column immediately.
1.02 RB Saquon Barkley - NYG
This was the Chalky White pick with the least chance of sliding. The consensus dynasty 1.01 by a country mile found a home with zero comp for playing time. After a difficult year using backup-level starters, Eli should find 2018 quite a bit smoother with the return of ODB and addition of Barkley. Despite what was said about the NYG OL, if replacement level RB's like Darkwa (4.4ypc) and Gallman (4.3ypc) can produce, just imagine what Saquon will do.
1.03 QB Sam Darnold - NJY
After traveling down a Jets first round draft-bust memory lane while OTC, they go with the guy most believe is the safest QB pick this class. I disagree, actually laughing at the timing, thinking they may have just added to said bust list. Oh boy, he's young...and??? I don't see what all the hype is about. Soft PAC12 schedule. Zero charisma. His slow wind up release may have factored in to his NCAA leading 8 fumbles lost in 2017. 13 INT's in 14 games. Didn't tear up the combine. Seems like more hype than substance if you asked me. I'm sure they will try to sell his rookie shortcomings on the lack of surrounding talent in New York, but don't buy it.
CLE already has an excellent unit assembled on offense, so adding CB Denzel Ward at 1.04 is a win. DEN pairing DE Bradley Chubb 1.05 with All Pro Von Miller is tasty. IND addressed a glaring team need drafting G Quenton Nelson at 1.06. All solid picks.
1.07 QB Josh Allen - BUF
Matching the rifle armed small town QB with one of the NFL's more faithful fan bases is a nice fit. He already has snow-game experience playing for Wyoming, so that is a plus. He gets to test the secondaries of a not-so-scary AFC East. BUF somehow scratched their way into the playoffs last year, so the team may have their expectations set a little too high, but that roster does not scream playoffs to me. This pick also gave my pre-draft dynasty rookie rankings a small boost as I had this Josh higher than the other Josh.
CHI added the highly coveted OLB Roquon Smith 1.08 as both a need pick and best player available. SF may have been sniped by CHI, but pivoted well to the always helpful OL building, drafting OT Mike Mcglinchey at 1.09.
1.10 QB Josh Rosen - ARI
Trading up to set a new NFL Draft record with four QB's going top 10, this was a strong landing spot for Rosen. His intellect should make for a short learning curve, posing a direct threat to Sam Bradford's Best Ball value for those early drafters. Fitz is also a cerebral guy, but ARI is still lacking in offensive roster talent, and I expect that to be addressed as early as tonight.
MIA added S Minkah Fitzpatrick 1.11 to help improve their secondary, and TB then bolstered their DL drafting stud DT Vita Vea at 1.12. Continuing a defensive run, WAS drafted DT Da'ron Payne at 1.13, and NOR added DE Marcus Davenport at 1.14. OAK took OT Kolton Miller with their 1.15 pick, followed by another defensive run, with BUF adding ILB Tremaine Edmunds 1.16, LAC adding S Derwin James 1.17, GB drafting CB Jaire Alexander 1.18, and DAL going with ILB Leighton Vander Esch at 1.19.
The next run had B2B centers go off the board with DET drafting C Frank Ragnow at 1.20, and CIN continuing to address their OL (as a big time dynasty Mixon owner...THANK YOU!) drafting C Billy Price at 1.21. TEN went defense, adding OLB Rashaan Evans with their 1.22 pick, followed by NE helping protect Brady with T Isaiah Wynn at 1.23.
1.24 WR D.J. Moore - CAR
"WOOOOO" number two! My pre-draft rankings had Moore as my WR1, and hearing his name called out before everyone's darling Ridley was awesome!!! I'd been on record thinking this draft had a chance to go WR-less in round one, as the class is so loaded at other positions, and the wide receivers just didn't jump out to me. None being drafted in the first 23 picks was a mini-win. Moore goes to a situation in CAR where he has a real shot at earning the alpha WR role, and I'd even say that is the likely outcome.
1.25 TE Hayden Hurst - BAL
I have no ill will toward Hurst, but just feel he is more a product of narrative hype than a first round talent. I do admit that BAL knows how to involve their tight ends, so this landing spot is excellent, and I happened to be OTC in a bestball last night where he was available, and snatched him up post draft night. I love the situation, but still think he will bust re: dynasty football. It is very rare that the "old guy rookie" story has a happy ending.
1.26 WR Calvin Ridley - ATL
My reaction to this landing spot for Ridley was basically "Ouch." I had him ranked as my rookie WR7, and this landing spot almost guarantees he drops down other people's rankings. Julio and the run game rule ATL, and Sanu is a gigantic road block as well. It could be an ugly year one for Calvin. Better to let him slide in rookie drafts, and then if you believe in him (which I do not) you can get him cheap via trade after a likely slow start.
1.27 RB Rashaad Penny - SEA
"WOOOOO" number three for me, and this one included getting up off the couch and fist pumping with some "Are you f^#@ing kidding me!?...YES!!!" mixed in. As my #2 ranked rookie, I was extremely happy with this pick. SEA has a RB corps ripe for the taking, and his 1st round pedigree virtually locks him into as much work as he can handle...including third down! A rare three down workhorse back with his upside is solid gold for dynasty. Like I mentioned on twitter, the thing I love about Penny is that he doesn't even know how good he is. His reaction to being drafted last night was special.
Another special moment was when PIT drafted S Terrell Edmunds at 1.28, making history with two brothers being drafted in round one. JAC and MIN continued to make one of their strengths (defense) even stronger with JAC drafting DT Taven Bryan at 1.29 and MIN adding CB Mike Hughes at 1.30.
1.31 RB Sony Michel - NE
I have Michel ranked a little lower than most as my rookie RB6, and the muddled way the Patriots employ their stable of running backs has me confident he slides a bit in rookie drafts. Nice reality pick, but with New Englands track record of game specific RB usage, and an aging QB, I'm not so sure this is a great long term landing spot. His longevity should benefit from the lower workload expectation.
1.32 QB Lamar Jackson - BAL
To close out the night, BAL traded up to snag one of the more interesting players in this class. I have him ranked as my rookie QB2, and although this landing spot is not so appealing for 2018, it is VERY appealing for 2019 on. His floor is debatable, but his ceiling is not. Happy to see him crack the first round party, and what a party it was!
Excellent draft night and I'm looking forward to much more fun tonight when round two gets underway! Having Saturday to sleep in, it could get quite wild tonight!