TEAM BY TEAM THOUGHTS ON THE 2022 FANTASY FOOTBALL SEASON (DAL-KC)
DALLAS COWBOYS
Despite being a team that on paper looks quite similar to their 2021 version, I’m having mixed feelings on how this season could play out for the Cowboys passing offense. At the moment it appears Michael Gallup is recovering at the expected pace, but he joins a list of highly talented players who are dealing with late to very late-season injuries.
The loss of Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson seems larger to me than what should be filled by the combination of Gallup, James Washington and rookie Jalen Tolbert. I have a hard time seeing their wide receiver room being as productive as it was last season.
Dak Prescott falling to the 12th QB drafted in one of my FPC leagues this year after going often as the 5th QB drafted last year seems to reflect that I’m not alone in this speculation. The rumors that Dallas may ask Dak to return to rushing more often could assist on keeping his value afloat, but matching his 37 TD, 4400+ yards passing might be quite a challenge.
Dalton Schultz was always my favorite to become the top Dallas tight end over that low-talent scrub Blake Jarwin that Twitter seemed to somehow love. All Schultz does is play tight end at a professionally high level, being fundamentally steady and sound. Great value last year, but he’s risen up into the stud level so far in drafts this year, forcing you to make a difficult choice between Schultz or a stud wide receiver or tip top quarterback.
Everyone’s 2022 breakout darling Ceedee Lamb showed almost zero improvement on his rookie season totals, and looked very average down the stretch, failing to reach 90 yards receiving in any of the Cowboys final 9 games, including a dud performance in the playoffs. He also scored zero touchdowns during that stretch. Lamb should receive quite a bump in targets, but it’s not like he was being ignored when he was fed a team high 120 targets last year. He’s dropped easy touchdowns and so far has failed to really “WOW” us with his play. He’s basically been a slightly worse Brandin Cooks over the past two seasons. Could that change big time in 2022? Sure. Will I be spending top shelf draft capital to find out? I doubt it.
Another very hyped Cowboy is the infamous Tony Pollard. The moment Dallas drafted Pollard, I bumped him down my rankings, as Ezekiel Elliott just radiates alpha running back and has the contract to back that up. Zeke reminds me of how Frank Gore aged like fine wine. He won’t make headlines with his amazing breakaway plays, but he’s a reliable and durable back who makes his money in the trenches. The yardage and touchdowns will depend on how well the Cowboys passing game fares, but I have no doubt who will be lined up and ready for those always valuable goal line plays. Saying all of this, I do have Pollard in my small group of desirable handcuff backs who would likely blow up and become difference makers if injury should strike the starter.
Aside from the pricey Lamb, you can create quite a cheap Dallas stack if that’s your game, and the upside if they gel with their new receivers could be well worth it.
DENVER BRONCOS
New coaching and the addition of Russell Wilson to an already solid squad has the entire NFL world excited for 2022. Fantasy players are adding the Broncos to their must-have stacks when considering a schedule full of juicy shootout matchups that continue throughout the Money Weeks™ (final five weeks of the fantasy season) and Las Vegas has raised their betting win-total by 3.5 wins over the previous season.
Russ gives Denver their best quarterback since ole Peyton Manning retired, and could be the key that unlocks a very talented roster. I wouldn’t expect a ton of rushing stats out of Wilson’s age 34 season, but he smartly chips in when it’s safe to do so and every bit helps.
You could make the argument that his weapons in Denver as a whole rival or exceed what he had in Seattle, and the style and pace of the offense should offer more upside. Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler make up a strong core of targets who have yet to show off their true upside, thanks to very underwhelming quarterback play.
Albert Okwuegbunam and rookie Greg Dulcich add two tight end weapons that can move like receivers. Last year I had a difficult time telling who looked more impressive between the ex-Bronco Noah Fant and Albert “O” and with what appears to be an open door toward added opportunity, am looking forward to finding out.
Javonte Williams looks like a good bet to increase his own chunk of the Broncos backfield pie, but he’s being gifted that based more on youth and coaching changes vs. earning it by out performing his competition. Melvin Gordon is still good and still here, and went toe-to-toe with Javonte last season, almost matching him touch-per-touch, while also out scoring him in the touchdown department.
All in all, the vibes are hot in Denver and stacking them can be done at such a reasonable price that you can bank on a team trying to do so in your next draft.
DETROIT LIONS
Detroit is another team I feel is heading in a direction I respect. They are developing a new culture while taking the slow-growth route, building via the NFL Draft and adding a few strategic (and discounted) free agents.
Jared Goff struggled in his first season as a Lion, but most quarterbacks would have done the same with how injury plagued their stars were in 2021. Having to rely on a team full of backup-level talents, he showed growth and flashed a bit later in the season, managing to defeat a few respectable teams (MIN, ARI, and GB) while winning three of his final four starts of the year.
If Detroit’s health runs a better race in 2022, they are set up to surprise big time with the drafting of my favorite rookie wide receiver Jameson Williams and the addition of D.J. Chark to their returning group of stars like D’Andre Swift, T.J Hockenson and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
It’s a very nice bonus when you can wait until the 15th round to secure such a reliable handcuff to Swift in Jamaal Williams.
I think the entire fantasy world is asleep at the wheel when it comes to allowing Jameson Williams to fall until the 12th round or later in redraft. He may take half the year to get up to speed, but it’s the second half of the year where the money is actually made, and I don’t see a player selected anywhere near Jameson who could come close to sniffing his upside. Amon-Ra showed well for himself as the last man standing, but this ain’t your 2021 Lions.
If Detroit can simply receive the average amount of injuries this season, I can see them sustaining many a fantasy team. There is some real talent to be mined from this mountain.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Las Vegas is trying to tell me that Davante Adams is only worth 1.5 wins judging by 2022 win-total lines compared to 2021, but I’m not buying it. The loss of 169 of the highest-quality targets will not be replaced by anyone currently under contract in Green Bay.
I do feel that Aaron Rodgers is one of a select group of NFL quarterbacks who “makes the wide receiver” much more than the receiver makes him, but the drop off in talent from Adams to any other Packers WR is just too extreme to buy in on. Mr. Relax has been so quiet regarding not a peep of complaining about their current group, that I get the feeling they will be signing one of the more talented wide receiver free agents before this offseason is complete.
I’ve always been a fan of Aaron Jones’s talent and can see their one-two punch with A.J. Dillon being leaned on even more in 2022. If someone on this team has the talent to help fill the void left on their offense, the best bet would be these two.
I’m uncertain as to what aside from injury caused Robert Tonyan to fall off the face of the fantasy Earth, but he’s one of those last-men-standing as their roster currently sits, and he was once considered a Mini-Kittle who flashed some sweet scoring upside the year prior.
I have a hard time believing rookie Christian Watson will have enough time to grow into someone Rodgers trusts enough to lean on, but Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Amari Rodgers and Randall Cobb offer little I would consider a road block of any kind. Part of me thinks Watkins could become Rodgers’ favorite target, but it’s a very faint feeling I haven’t been rushing to move in on.
Betting against Aaron Rodgers has been a bad bet throughout his entire career, and him falling from a top tier QB to one being drafted as the 15th quarterback off the board makes him a sweet gift for redraft players at the moment.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Not only did the Texans SWEEP the number one overall draft darling Trevor Lawrence and his Jacksonville Jaguars, they also beat the only other team (Tennessee) to sweep Jacksonville in 2021. Now THAT team-intro is what you can call a Shark Jumper™.
Seriously though, after all of the previous Bill O’Brien coaching drama, followed by the cringe-worthy Deshaun Watson off-hours drama, Houston has been cleaning up their image and moving forward with some excellent drafting that should continue with their stockpile of 2023 picks.
Offensively this is a team full of fantasy backups outside of Brandin Cooks, but there are interesting young pieces who impressed last year like Davis Mills (whose number one supporter is “Dynasty Guru” Dayo) and Brevin Jordan plus rookies John Metchie and Dameon Pierce who will be fun to track as they progress in the league. Nico Collins is another guy who could add to his game in 2022, but in most of my short-bench style leagues there just isn’t quite enough room to roster him.
Some depth chart believers out there think either Marlon Mack or Rex Burkhead will lead the Texans backfield, but judging by how bets are being placed on draft boards, Dameon Pierce is the speculation favorite, going many rounds before Mack, while Burkhead can be drafted in the final round at times. I side with Pierce, but can understand the gamble for Bestball type leagues of just waiting until late and taking a shot on the veterans.
For more Houston Texans knowledge from a few respected locals (as well as being one of the best new fantasy podcasts to come along), I highly recommend you try listening to their 1st and Fifteen Fantasy Football Podcast. All three of these professionals are active in high stakes fantasy football, with Chris filling in excellently as host and tech guru, Dayo being the go-to guy for dynasty and other firm counter-consensus takes, and Abib representing one of the most dominant tournament players in the fantasy world, successfully winning the FOOTBALLGUYS PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP (FPC) in back-to-back (2019 and 2020) seasons, which is statistically and financially an absolutely incredible feat.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
I may be in the minority, but I just do not see much of any upgrade going from quarterback Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan aside from his durability. Ryan is a pro for sure, and has played in 222 out of a possible 225 regular season games since 2008. Much of his decline has been more surrounding talent related than his 37 years of age.
I’ll push my minority opinion all-in by stating I’m not too thrilled about the upside of Michael Pittman compared to what I read on Twitter, and based on where he goes (12th WR off the board) in some 2022 drafts, I doubt I’ll be having him on any rosters this season. I’d prefer to wait until toward the end of drafts and bet on the forgotten Paris Campbell, or take a cheap shot on rookie Alec Pierce. Pittman was kind of a last man standing in 2021, and like Wentz, petered out down the stretch, scoring one touchdown over his final eight games, while not wowing anyone in the process.
Jonathan Taylor might be my favorite NFL player at the moment. Cool, smart guy and as talented as it gets. The Colts offense will run through him, and he’s my 1.01 overall pick in any fantasy format that doesn’t have elimination weeks during the Colts Week 14 BYE week.
I’m fairly low on the Indianapolis tight end room, but there is some sweet opportunity for someone like Mo Alie-Cox or rookie Jelani Woods (or maybe a free agent TE addition?) to emerge, and Matt Ryan has an excellent history of feeding his tight ends as much as they can handle.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
As the injured Travis Etienne perfectly said regarding the 2021 Jaguar’s season… “If there was any year to miss, I missed a great one.”
Etienne is a player I want as much of as possible, but to my surprise his price has gone up and up to the point where he’s valued properly and no longer feels like a bargain. James Robinson’s rehab has been steady but quiet, and I think they can make for a strong one-two punch in 2022.
Trevor Lawrence had a typical season full of struggles for a rookie quarterback, made much worse by piss-poor coaching and a garbage-level cast of surrounding talent. Jacksonville spent enough money this offseason to upgrade that wide receiver room, but may have spent it in the wrong places. I do like Christian Kirk and have always been impressed by how well Evan Engram moves for a tight end, but throwing all that money away and declining to add a single wide receiver from what I believe was an excellent 2022 rookie draft class just points out to me that the Jaguars may not be too interested in winning this season, but rather looks like the new coaching staff plans to “run it back” as kind of a second rookie season for Trevor and Company.
This looks like another team starting fresh with new coaching and will patiently develop their prized quarterback taking the slow and steady route. Like a flunky having to repeat a grade, things should slow down and make much more sense the second time around.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Remember when Patrick Mahomes was on the trajectory of becoming the Crowned Prince of Kansas City, with pomp and circumstance and his child treated like royalty? Now he’s “inaccurate”, has a trolling sibling, and is being drafted sometimes as the 4th or even 5th quarterback off the board. Life sure moves fast.
I’m still his Huckleberry, and will enjoy the discounted value as Mahomes spreads his wings and goes back to his college roots of spreading the ball around in a more Tom Brady-like manner.
With Tyreek Hill gone, there is an incredibly interesting group of receivers trying to fill that void. Aside from super-stud Travis Kelce, my eyes are mostly fixed on two players: Juju Smith-Schuster and the longshot Justyn Ross.
Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and even Josh Gordon (in that order) by virtue of being potentially active members of the Chiefs gameday roster will all hold my attention as this offseason plays itself out, and should one or two clearly emerge and separate from the pack, goldmine!
One of the biggest fantasy fallers (and deservedly so) has been Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Kansas City added the solid baseline runner Ronald Jones who remains a liability in the passing game and re-signed 30 year old Jerick McKinnon who looked pretty great overall in last year’s playoffs, but that was the dreaded “Late-Season Small-Sample Fresh-Legged running back with no contract MIRAGE” we’ve been fooled by plenty of times in the past.
Since first going down with injury during his rookie season, Clyde has failed to string together more than five consecutive games at any time thereafter. Missed one game, played in two, missed three games, played in two, season ends. Played in five games, missed five games, played in five games, missed three games, played in two games, season ends.
That all said, I’m still on “Team CEH” and have been scooping him up at his gigantic discount non-stop in 2022 drafts. If we are all cool with giving Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey the benefit of the doubt regarding returning from constant injuries with the hopes of stringing together a healthy season, why not extend that to the 23 year old former first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire?
That wraps up PART TWO of a four part series. As I’ve already mentioned, feel free to use my homemade team graphics on your own site, as the subtle logo promotion would be appreciated and flattering. Be on the lookout for PART THREE coming out in the days ahead.