2020 Dynasty Trade Market: AFC West

Wrapping up our dynasty dissection of the American Football Conference, we turn our attention to one of the more exciting divisions in that of the AFC West. With regard to dynasty assets, all four teams here are either fairly young already, or are trending toward major talent turnover as they make their movement toward youth.

Headlined by the reigning Super Bowl Champs, and followed up by three teams in Denver, Las Vegas and Los Angeles who in theory could have signal callers starting for each with no Week 1 starter experience. The odds are strong there will be veterans called upon to be the bridge toward that youth, but the excitement levels are high nonetheless.

The long wait and hard work is coming to an end and we should have two brand new NFL stadiums completed just in time for the 2020 season. They broke ground in November of 2016 and 2017 respectively, and both the SoFi Stadium near Los Angeles and the Allegiant Stadium near Las Vegas are projected to be opening this coming July.

The SoFi Stadium will host both the Chargers and Rams, as well as the 2022 Super Bowl, the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship and the 2028 Summer Olympics. It will have an artificial turf field, a fixed see-through roof, open air sides and “The Oculus” : an ovular, double-sided 4K HDR, 2.2 million pound video board suspended from the roof displaying over 80 million pixels.

Allegiant Stadium will be a 10-level domed stadium that also has a see-through roof. It will have a classic Silver and Black exterior that features large retractable curtain-like side windows facing the Las Vegas Strip. There will be a large torch inside whose flame will honor the late Al Davis, and a roll-in natural grass field similar to that of the Arizona Cardinals.

Both have impressive concept art renderings, and it looks like Raider and Charger fans will be in for quite an upgrade over the game day experiences of the past few seasons.

Kansas City Chiefs

BUY: QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill

No real need to talk up Patrick Mahomes. Either he is your number one ranked dynasty quarterback or a very close second. Mahomes now has a career record of 28 wins and 8 losses as an NFL starter, with some of the most impressive hardware (NFL MVP, Super Bowl MVP, Super Bowl Champion, etc) ever assembled so early in a career. He is still learning the game and has untapped rushing ability if needed. He radiates youthful enthusiasm, is exciting to watch play and has a great attitude. In a game where finding an advantage over your opponent at the quarterback position can prove challenging, I feel he is one of the very few worth paying up to acquire.

There are detractors out there trying to paint the picture that because Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski are close in age, somehow a cliff is coming. Rubbish. The shell of Gronk we have front and center in our recency biased memory can be blamed on a major back injury. Anyone with experience playing fantasy football knows the tight end position rivals quarterback in expected longevity. Tony Gonzalez led all tight ends in receptions as a 37 year old. The 34 year old version of Antonio Gates out-performed the 25 year old version of Kelce himself. His yards per reception average, durability, fantasy production and target load are as consistent as it gets and there are zero clues indicating any coming drop off. In a game where (if you are playing it right) roster turnover via active trading makes three or four years down the road feel like an eternity, projecting Kelce to hold his positional advantage for the next few seasons is no stretch.

Tyreek Hill had to endure a tumultuous, rumor-filled offseason, followed by a major clavicle injury early in Week 1 that (at the time) many feared to be season-ending. Amid all of this drama, he secured a three year contract with enough guaranteed money to connect him at the hip of Mahomes for the next few seasons. Hill was a top four PPR wide receiver over the final 10 weeks after returning from injury in Week 6. Over the final 11 games the year prior in 2018, Hill ranked number one. In our effort to win dynasty championships, acquiring these difference makers is crucial, especially when they are strong finishers, as that is when the money is made.

HOLD: RB LeSean McCoy, WR Sammy Watkins

Father Time is indeed undefeated, but it seems like there may be a little more fantasy production to be mined from LeSean McCoy. His price is close to free, and the rumors connecting him to teams like the Lions, Chargers and Eagles is quite interesting. Comparing the regular season stats of McCoy and Damien Williams looks like that Spiderman meme; similar workload with identical yards per touch average.

Sammy Watkins has become the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL: no respect. Those who have backed him over the years have run the gamut of emotional highs and lows (mostly lows), but anyone who watched the Chiefs playoff run knows how many critical receptions Watkins made on his way to amassing 288 receiving yards (75 more than both Kelce and Hill) in those three games. The odds are he starts fresh yet again with a new team in 2020, but like McCoy, his price is free and there are a few NFL team fits that could make him worthy of rostering. His foot issues sapped much from his explosiveness, and he’s not the same player that was crowned King (first drafted) of the best WR class (2014) in recent memory, but I believe he’s the only one from that class with a Super Bowl ring so far.

SELL: WR Mecole Hardman, RB Damien Williams

I’ve been playing fantasy football for a long time, and it is the rarest of rare events for a wide receiver with 35 non-injured receptions as a career high (college and pro combined) to go on to become a high volume receiver in the NFL. The narrative that Mecole Hardman is new to the position holds a little weight, and he is an excellent BestBall deep threat and return man, but projecting major target volume going forward is a dicey proposition. I believe there are quite a few fantasy players who think the exodus of Watkins will open up a major spike in targets for Hardman, and advise selling him to those players and letting them learn the hard way. Fun fact: “Me, Cole…hard man.” (hat tip to the caveman voice Pat Mayo uses that is hard to remove from my head) averaged 1.8 receptions per game throughout his college career, 1.6 receptions per game in the NFL regular season, and 1.3 receptions per game in the NFL playoffs.

Beloved for his late season and playoff heroics, Damien Williams seems to have a bit of dynasty trade value at the moment. Like I mentioned above, his regular season numbers were indistinguishable from old man McCoy, even with the benefit of a 91-yard touchdown run. That one play alone elevated his 2019 yards per carry average from a ghastly 3.7 to a respectable 4.5. People that wonder why we make such a fuss over the NFL Combine should note Damien Williams ran a 4.45 second 40-yard dash, and it takes some speed to break those difference making long plays. He has the talent to hold off lesser competition, but his durability-challenged regular seasons leave way too much on the bone. Damien will be 28 years old next season, and even if you combined his six year NFL career (rushing yards and rushing touchdowns) into one total, he’d fall short of what Zeke did in 2019 alone. Competition is coming in 2020.

Denver Broncos

BUY: WR Courtland Sutton, TE Noah Fant

Courtland Sutton performed well as he transitioned from a complementary role to a featured wide receiver, even in an ugly rebuild season like 2019. His targets per game remained fairly consistent both before and after Emmanuel Sanders left Denver, and regardless of which quarterback was under center. If you dropped Sutton into this 2020 wide receiver class, his statistics and measurables would blend right in toward the top, but with the added benefit of his excellent draft capital and situation already known and established.

I’ve seen some dynasty tight end rankings already listing Noah Fant inside their top five. That is higher than I’m willing to go, but it’s hard not to like his upside. His rookie production was very similar to that of George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews and even Rob Gronkowski (minus the 10 touchdowns) while starting his NFL career at the tender age of 21. His combine performance last year was also excellent across the board. One thing that worries me is the coach who got on the phone with Fant on Draft Night 2019 with the congratulatory speech including quotes like “Remember what I told you, it’s all about the system you land in so they know how to use you buddy. You couldn’t have come to a better place. Can’t wait to work with you, man.” was none other than Broncos OC Rich Scangarello. The same Rich Scangarello who is now an offensive assistant coach for the Philadelphia Eagles.

HOLD: QB Drew Lock, RB Phillip Lindsay

Something that may have flown under the radar was how Drew Lock took over a Broncos team with a 3-8 record and led them to a 4-1 record over their final five games. He’s got enough athletic ability to sprinkle in more than a point per game via rushing stats, and that’s always welcome in dynasty. Denver should use this 2020 class to continue to build their offense around Lock, so any additional weapons at wideout or offensive line would raise both his floor and ceiling going into year two.

My immense disdain for modern propaganda fuels my motivation to avoid watching commercials of any kind outside of prime-time NFL games. On the rare occasions when the Redzone Channel would flip over to a Broncos drive, it would always be Phillip Lindsay running the ball when a play caught my eye. He attacks the hole with fearlessness and in my opinion is a better runner, pass protector and receiver than teammate Royce Freeman. Lindsay lives up to his college nickname of “Tasmanian Devil” with his wild and aggressive approach toward every down he plays.

SELL: RB Royce Freeman

Aside from the additional 40-pounds of muscle that Royce Freeman hangs on his frame versus that of Lindsay, there is nothing I see that would lead me to rotate Freeman in for, outside of leaning on his durability in short yardage situations, or to give Lindsay a breather. Freeman is just a capable placeholder in the NFL. One of the latest in a long line of over-hyped and over-drafted Oregon Ducks.

Las Vegas Raiders

BUY: RB Josh Jacobs

After investing valuable draft capital to acquire him, it almost seems like the Raiders wanted to test drive him hard year one in order to both see how he held up, and to set new touch minimums as a baseline moving forward. Josh Jacobs succeeded in more than doubling the touch total from his final year in college, which was then his career high. He was actually on pace to surpass the total amount of touches from his combined three year career at Alabama, before going down with a shoulder injury and missing the final two weeks of the season. Aside from injury risk, the talk of entering “phase two” next season by adding even more to his plate in the receiving game is a dream come true for his dynasty backers. The sky is the limit when projecting 2020 workload, with the only worry being Jacobs’s month to month survival. Combined with a select few from this incoming draft class, the rumors of the three down back going extinct in the NFL may have been premature speculation.

HOLD: QB Derek Carr

In his sixth NFL season, and with a below average supporting cast, Derek Carr set career highs in passing yardage, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and quarterback rating, despite a career low in passing attempts. Yes, John Gruden still has it as a quarterback whisperer. There are rumors that in spite of all this, the Raiders may be looking to make an upgrade at the position. I’d lean toward Carr holding his starting role in 2020, but it is worth keeping a close eye on, as whomever Gruden hand selects would have my interest. There will be major talent upgrades to the Raiders receiving corps, and I’d expect them to roll into their new Las Vegas home with a Las Vegas style splash.

SELL: TE Darren Waller, WR Tyrell Williams, WR Hunter Renfrow

I’ve included Darren Waller as a sell here due to the impressive hauls I’ve seen him command in recent trades, especially in tight end premium leagues. He put himself on the map last year, rewarding his backers with a top shelf season from a bargain basement round. The talent looks real, but the competition for targets were non-existent in 2019, and that’s about to change.

Both Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow benefited greatly from the lack of competition last season. Tyrell (likely elsewhere in 2020) started strong, and Renfrow finished strong, but I’ll be in the camp that bets they return to complementary roles going forward after the Raiders add a feature-worthy wideout or two this offseason.

Los Angeles Chargers

BUY: WR Mike Williams, TE Hunter Henry, RB Melvin Gordon, QB Phillip Rivers

Even with shoddy protection, Rivers was able to complete enough deep balls to Mike Williams to lead the NFL in yards per reception (among those who qualified). Williams’s year-to-year touchdown volatility reminds me of how Mike Evans started his career. There are way too many moving parts in Chargerland, scaring owners and driving down trade values across the board, creating a nice window to buy these former high draft picks at discount. Even in the worst-case scenario of a Tyrod Taylor-led Chargers team, the one ball I recall him throwing well was the deep ball.

All signs point to Hunter Henry staying in Los Angeles for the 2020 season, which is a fairly big let down for many of his owners. The turmoil of a major quarterback downgrade has his price slightly below where it should be, but one of the few things new quarterbacks do consistently is check down to the easier routes that tight ends often roam. Hunter has the talent to challenge for a top five positional ranking, but will be at the mercy of whatever changes may come to his surrounding cast both this year and next.

It has been eerily quiet regarding Melvin Gordon rumors, and his dynasty trade value has taken a dive. He has the track record and youth to see his value explode if a team decides to make him their new three down workhorse. You can buy him quite cheap now and reap the rewards yourself, or may be able to flip him for a sweet profit almost immediately upon signing, and the downside is limited when considering his current price.

The talk connecting Phillip Rivers to Indianapolis is so strong it feels like a foregone conclusion. That Colts offensive line could take five years off his age. The same people who love to bring up his (or Jameis Winston’s) high interception totals are the same buffoons rooting for teams to “go for it” on 4th down while in negative areas of the field. Let that sink in. Rivers threw for over 4600 yards with a solid yards per attempt average and I think he easily has a few more seasons left in that arm.

HOLD: RB Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler is one of my hardest evaluations. His performance has been outstanding and his new contract locks him into a healthy portion of the Chargers backfield touches. He survived a very heavy college workload and put up eye-rubbing stats, but they came against colleges that even hard core dynasty players have never even heard of. Part of me considers Ekeler a glorified James White who does all of his damage as a receiver, and I worry how horribly it could go with Tyrod Taylor as the quarterback. The other part of me thinks he is a solid high-reward gamble and loves his attitude as a teammate and as a person. His value has reached the point where he’s being drafted in the late second round of both BestBall and dynasty startups, even with Charger management intending to add new pieces to their backfield. As a nice blend of expensive yet slightly risky, I guess he is the very definition of a hold for me.

SELL: WR Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen has been as consistent as it gets since overcoming his early career injuries. He’s creeping into that no-man’s land of an age 28 season, when savvy dynasty players tend to trade stars away in order to secure maximum value in return. I’ve long thought Allen was closer to average than elite, and felt Phillip Rivers could turn almost any wideout into a star with the number of quality targets he can throw your way. In 2016, when Keenan Allen missed most of the season, Rivers turned to Tyrell Williams and gave him a career high in targets, resulting in almost identical production (yards per target, total yards, touchdowns) to that of Allen‘s last three seasons. The change in quarterback will be felt in Los Angeles, and the odds are strong it will be negative.