Signal Focused Series (Part II) Navigating the first few turns: Round Three
While preparing to write this particular article, I found myself at war with myself. I had an internal conflict that I needed to let play out completely until it ended with a victor. Over the course of three days it metaphorically escalated from friendly dialogue to jiu jitsu rolling to full MMA brawling to existential crisis.
You see, the first two rounds were easy. I had no issue slotting players into the order I have and will continue to draft them. Round three stopped me in my tracks.
Encapsulated by my struggle to rank the Kansas City wide receivers, I needed to go deep within in order to solve the bigger issue I was having: to completely remove myself from groupthink.
I kept having this annoying urge to "do the safe thing" according to the wisdom of the masses, like ranking a "less impressive to the eyes" Doug Baldwin, Jerick McKinnon or Kenyan Drake over a more impressive Allen Robinson, Brandin Cooks or Ronald Jones. To allow that gigantic rankings list in the sky to reach down and nudge my fingers toward typing players in an order that sent fire through my stomach.
When the dust settled post-battle and all of the warriors bowed and returned to one body, thankfully it was "me" left standing. Another test passed.
Before this war played itself out, I was virtually frozen, the rebel inside me refusing to conform. Now that it has ended, I feel a weight has lifted and I am at peace with throwing groupthink out the window and getting on with my rankings in complete confidence.
Let's do this!
3.01 Allen Robinson WR CHI
2016 12.33 FFPG (16) Jacksonville Jaguars
2015 19.00 FFPG (16) Jacksonville Jaguars
2014 11.48 FFPG (10) Jacksonville Jaguars
One thing is certain: fantasy football players are a fickle and forgetful bunch. You can bank on the vast majority to devalue players who haven't produced of late, allowing former stars to slip in drafts and be scooped up by championship teams resulting in those classic message board whines like "I wish I were lucky enough to be in a league like THAT!"
You saw it last year when the "proceed with caution" vibes were surrounding Keenan Allen, causing him to slip into the mid-to-late third round after being a late first rounder the year prior. How quickly people forget that Allen Robinson was a mid-to-late FIRST ROUNDER in 2016 Vegas Main event drafts. What else can I say but "Thank You" to the "what have you done for me lately" neck-cranked mobile phoners who are perennially stuck in the Now Now NOW!
QB Mitch Trubisky had to endure a trial by fire as a rookie surrounded by sub-optimal NFL talent and coaching. 2018 has a much brighter shine to it in Chicago, and the team they have assembled both on the field and on the sidelines looks seriously competitive on paper.
I prefer drafting for ceiling when imagined floors are fairly similar, and Robinson's three seasons scoring 19+ FPPG (2015 with JAC, plus 23.32 FPPG in 2013 and 20.40 FPPG in 2012 with Penn State) slots him up here toward the top of my rankings. If a turnstile level wide receiver like Kendall Wright can command 91 targets yet produce just one touchdown, imagine how many targets a player with Robinson's talent (who has a 14 TD season on his resume) will command.
Last year the second most targets went to backup running back Tarik Cohen. This year's version of Da' Bears looks much more talented with the addition of Robinson, TE Trey Burton and a special looking rookie wideout named Anthony Miller. This should result in more sustained chain-moving drives, less punting, and the added opportunities to score fantasy points that comes with that.
Sustained health will be just as important for Allen as it is for each and every player drafted. His back-to-back 16 game seasons in Jacksonville prior to 2017 give me some peace of mind, and all reports on his recovery point to being ready to rock in 2018. Load up!
3.02 Zach Ertz TE PHI
2017 17.62 FPPG (17) Philadelphia Eagles
2016 15.90 FPPG (14) Philadelphia Eagles
2015 13.99 FPPG (15) Philadelphia Eagles
Similar to fellow stud tight end Travis Kelce, ZaCH (I always go out of my way to mispronounce his name by stressing the "ch" sound like "chisel") Ertz has improved his fantasy production with each year in the league. Where Kansas City added comp for targets and a brand spanking new quarterback, the Eagles stood pat with the roster that made them Superbowl Champions.
Be it potential young stud QB Carson Wentz at the helm, or the Ice Veined Playoff Assassin Nick Foles, that Philly system feeds its talented TE with plenty of opportunities to excel.
"But what about the drafting of Goe-Dirt?" you ask? Well, looking over the Eagles roster, I'd still rank Ertz #1, Alshon Jeffery #2, and I'd unconventionally slot TE Dallas Goedert right there in the mix for option #3 or #4 next to Nelson Agholor... he's THAT good, even as a rook.
More offensive threats can equal a bit less defensive attention, so I have no problem banking on a season for ZaCH somewhere close to what he's done the past two years, which puts him up there in that "Elite Three" for the tight end position, a highly coveted weapon in the TE friendly FFPC scoring format.
3.03 Ronald Jones RB TB
2017 23.67 FPPG (13) University of Southern California Trojans
2016 15.75 FPPG (13) University of Southern California Trojans
2015 11.69 FPPG (14) University of Southern California Trojans
Gone are the days where a bunch of plodding backs shared the uninspired rushing workload in Tampa. There's a new sheriff in town. Looking for this year's version of Alvin Kamara? Look no further.
Ronald Jones averaged more than six yards per carry (with a heavy workload) over his three year career at USC, scoring 42 touchdowns in 40 games. He has a chance to earn as many touches for the Buccaneers as he can handle. Chemistry may develop slowly given the three game suspension to QB Jameis Winston, but Ronald's explosive upside is well worth reaching for.
He's built fairly similarly (5' 11" tall, 208 lbs) to the previously mentioned Kamara (5' 10" tall, 215 lbs), and still being only 20 years young, there is a real possibility that he is still growing.
His pass protection was listed as a plus, and his 100m track speed will have him standing out as special whenever he touches the ball vs. the plodding backs we were used to. My eyes grade his receiving ability above average, keeping him at least in the mix for third down work. Leaving the field so an inferior back can get touches may happen while he is still absorbing the playbook, but I doubt it lasts for any longer than that.
One of my top rated running backs from this class goes to one of the hottest spots for a RB to land this year, and although his price has started climbing, it is still cheaper now than it will be once the fantasy community gets to see him play with their own two eyes. Draft him now while you still can!
3.04 Brandin Cooks WR LAR
2017 12.88 FPPG (19) New England Patriots
2016 15.39 FPPG (16) New Orleans Saints
2015 15.85 FPPG (16) New Orleans Saints
The Rodney Dangerfield treatment of Brandin Cooks has altered how I have approached drafting this year. When a guy as talented as he is falls to a point where you can bank on him being around to snatch as your WR1 or even WR2 after starting RB, RB, RB...why bother drafting wide receivers early?
Cooks has a proven track record of borderline star production. Folks use the "but he's done it playing with Hall of Fame quarterbacks" as some sort of an excuse for dropping him down their rankings. Fine with me.
I have a theory that Cooks has been trying to find a team willing to give him that alpha role he's craved since entering the league. That team may be the Rams.
After signing late, Watkins never quite seemed to fit in with Los Angeles, outside of turning ten redzone targets into seven receptions...all touchdowns. They leaned on local kid Robert Woods as kind of a Southern California feel-good story, but rookie Cooper Kupp ended up leading the team in targets.
Brandin has a well rounded game I like to call Quad Dubs or "WWWW" (Wes Welker With Wheels) and is by far the most talented WR on their roster. Both he and Cooper Kupp are card carrying members of the "30+ FPPG Club" with Cooper dropping 35.65 FPPG in 2015 as an Eastern Washington Eagle, and Cooks dropping 33.13 FPPG in 2013 as an Oregon State Beaver. Despite three extra years of NFL production, Cooks is actually the younger of the two.
Happy to be back on the Best Coast after touring the south and east, I believe Cooks will finally become the Alpha he's always wanted to be, and has found his long term home in sunny Southern California.
3.05 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
2017 15.34 FPPG (15) Atlanta Falcons
2016 18.27 FPPG (19) Atlanta Falcons
2015 21.39 FPPG (15) Atlanta Falcons
I admit I hold a little grudge toward Mr. Freeman. I had the highest of high hopes that Tevin Coleman would snatch the pebble and become the lead running back in Atlanta when he was drafted. One big hit in his second week of starting left him with broken ribs, leaving the door wide open for Freeman to snatch the pebble right back. He's still holding that pebble today, but his grip may be loosening.
Looking closely over last years stats, it appears that under new OC Steve Sarkisian, Tevin is finally getting more involved in the run game as well as showing to be more efficient with his receptions, averaging 13.6 (2016) and 11.1 (2017) to Freeman's 8.6 (2016) and 8.8 (2017). That isn't good. Coleman's carries per game have gone up each year, from 7.25 (2015) to 9.18 (2016) to 10.58 (2017), including an almost even split in last years playoffs (24 carries for Tevin to 28 for Freeman).
Devonta's scoring prowess (four of his last five seasons have ended with 10 TD, 16 TD, 14 TD, and 15 TD) added to his blended role with plenty of rushing attempts and targets each week keeps him as a safe stone to build your team upon, despite a negative trend. The threat of an actual "passing of the torch" to some degree or a more even workload split with Tevin Coleman bumps him down my list.
3.06 Sammy Watkins WR KC
2017 9.14 FPPG (16) Los Angeles Rams
2016 10.38 FPPG (8) Buffalo Bills
2015 16.83 FPPG (13) Buffalo Bills
The musical chairs that Sammy and his fellow "Class of 2014" wide receiver Brandin Cooks have endured has depleted both of their values to career lows. BUY LOW!
Watkins was the apple of my eye from one of the best WR classes I have ever seen. The foot issues gave reason to worry, as those can often recur, but the talent he has shown over his career (23.00, 17.94, and 24.65 FPPG (2011-2013) Clemson Tigers), can recur as well.
Sammy had his best year as a pro with Tyrod Taylor's sweet longballs landing in his mitts full stride. Patrick Mahomes could be the best quarterback he's ever worked with. Reports out of Kansas City need the drool wiped away in order to read them. After possibly babying his recovery, all signs point to him looking like his old self again, including the return of his swag.
As talented as a wide receivers gets, I'm anticipating a career year in 2018 that will re-insert Watkins back to the top of draft boards heading into 2019. Don't snooze on him.
3.07 Josh Gordon WR CLE
2017 11.50 FPPG (5) Cleveland Browns
2014 10.86 FPPG (5) Cleveland Browns
2013 22.46 FPPG (14) Cleveland Browns
Say what you must about his career path, a player that can average over 22 FPPG in the NFL is a rare gemstone. That is Antonio Brown territory.
That same Tyrod Taylor with the beautiful "dot" spiral bombs will make a sweet batterymate for "Flash" for as long as he can hold off the uber talented number one pick Baker Mayfield. It is a win-win for Gordon, as his production has come from lesser quarterbacks throughout his career.
Gordon looks to have changed his diet from Patron Tequila to porterhouse steaks, and his body could not be more well built. His commitment to football finally won out over his love of altered states. Anyone who doubts his talent needs to change hobbies.
The Browns are stocked with talent on offense now, so teams looking to double or triple cover Flash will pay dearly for it. The sky is truly the limit when it comes to his ceiling, and I cannot wait to see what OC Todd Haley pulls out of his bag of plays this year.
It was difficult for those in dynasty to have been forced to wait five years to see an encore performance, but redrafters can just jump on this wagon seat right here next to me (pats open seat), but nestle in good and tight, as each stop along the road to Kickoff Weekend will be adding more passengers.
Addiction is a difficult mistress, so the risk remains and will continue to remain for as long as it takes for each individual drafter to buy in. Some never will. I've watched enough video to believe Gordon is on a good path, and will gladly scoop him up in this range of drafts as often as possible.
3.08 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR PIT
2017 14.37 FPPG (14) Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 17.24 FPPG (13) University of Southern California Trojans
2015 21.06 FPPG (14) University of Southern California Trojans
As one of the youngest players in the NFL, JuJu made statement after statement on the field last year that despite being a rookie, he was not to be bullied. He meshed quickly with the veterans, being featured in their touchdown celebrations and garnered a legion of followers on twitter.
His fun-loving style also has a darker side as evidenced by cheap-shotting a cheap-shot artist, sending Vontaze Burfict into Concussionville, then posterizing him with a standover that should very much worry JuJu and his teammates when next they meet. (2x per season!)
Off memory, it seemed like Smith-Schuster did well when plays broke down, as he'd slide out like a tight end and cross the field to bail out his quarterback. Excellent production for a rookie firmly seated behind the two Alpha's in Pittsburgh. The efficiency of production on such a limited load of targets will be tough to match, but the load itself should be on the rise after moving up their wide receiver totem pole.
The Steelers did draft a very talented wideout in James Washington, but the pecking order should be a firmly established one at least for the first half of 2018. His three 100+ yard receiving games over the final seven weeks, combined with an eight touchdown rookie campaign puts quite a stamp on his upside. Draft Away!
3.09 Tyreek Hill WR KC
2017 16.14 FPPG (16) Kansas City Chiefs
2016 12.32 FPPG (17) Kansas City Chiefs
2015 10.83 FPPG (11) West Alabama Tigers
Tyreek Hill was whetting the appetite of many an investor, with visions of Mahomes launching rainbow spirals to Hill for touchdown after touchdown and then the bad news crossed the ticker..."Sammy Watkins signs a three year, $48 million dollar contract with the Chiefs." Damn.
This one took a while to process, but I went with Watkins as the player who most impressed me with his body of work. I just think the better bet is that Watkins will out perform Hill in practice and that will translate to heavier loads on Sundays. I want both players on my teams, but after thinking on this one long and hard, my gut leaned Sammy quite clearly.
Tyreek has impressed, and is one of the fastest people on the planet. His track speed creates instant electricity whenever he gets the ball, and he's had amazing highlights at each stop going from West Alabama to Oklahoma State to Garden City CC and even back to Coffee High School. He's an improving receiver and Pro Bowl return specialist who would have a warehouse full of cars if he foot-raced fellow NFL players for pink slips.
His 16.14 FPPG last year was his best since he managed a 17.02 FPPG season playing running back at Garden City Community College. He is special, no doubt, but so are his teammates in Kansas City, and my play this season will lean Sammy out of respect for when I had Watkins ranked as the cream of the "Class of 2014" wide receiver crop.
3.10 Doug Baldwin WR SEA
2017 13.83 FPPG (16) Seattle Seahawks
2016 16.45 FPPG (18) Seattle Seahawks
2015 16.68 FPPG (18) Seattle Seahawks
Talk about a late bloomer, Baldwin failed to separate himself from his peers until his 5th season in the NFL. I like to call him a "Beggar's" (one level down from "A Poor Man's") Antonio Brown, as he seems to out hustle his comp and continues to grind the chains while also turning himself into a reliable scorer.
Seattle was one of a handful of teams where things just looked off in 2017. A lack of team chemistry, a weak run game, and poor offensive line play combined with an aging defense led to a 9 win season that felt much worse.
The Seahawks seem to have addressed each of these problem areas to some degree, shedding players like Jimmy Graham (chemistry), Richard Sherman, Cliff Avril & Michael Bennett (aging defense), and adding former 1st round OL D.J Fluker, a few blocking tight ends, and the afore mentioned RB Rashaad Penny.
We shall see how the many changes in Seattle gel as time goes by, but Russell Wilson's go-to WR1 appears to be carved into stone, with Baldwin having every opportunity to see if he can get back to the 16 FPPG level he reached in his two peak years of 2015 and 2016.
3.11 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
2017 16.29 FPPG (16) Arizona Cardinals
2016 15.36 FPPG (16) Arizona Cardinals
2015 17.95 FPPG (18) Arizona Cardinals
Count me among those who were too quick to write Larry off as "Over the Hill" after his age 31 season, coming off three consecutive sub-par (for him) seasons scoring 10.63 (2014), 14.89 (2013), and 10.93 (2012) FPPG.
Coach Arians switching Fitz from outside to the slot eventually resurrected his career back to the numbers you see listed above, opening a path for similar players (of which there are very few) to extend their careers. His three consecutive seasons with 107+ receptions (most of which came with a talented Carson Palmer at quarterback) were his first 100+ catch years since his "sophomore, junior and senior" seasons in the NFL. He had a five year "dry spell" in between were he failed to reach even 91 receptions (66, 82, 71, 80 and 90) while dealing with a handful of unworthy quarterbacks.
Despite the heart warming hopscotch commercial hinting at retirement, until my eyes (and boxscores) start seeing otherwise, the fact that he no longer wishes to talk about retirement has me thinking he sticks around for a little while more. A textbook throwback player, rocking on into his 15th season with the same franchise is a testament to buying all-in to a team and the surrounding community.
Carrying on the tradition of "out working the world" a la Jerry Rice before him, it brings me pleasure to watch a true master continue to work his craft at such a high level, and his fantasy production is warmly welcomed on any of my fantasy teams.
Sam Bradford's severe reliability concerns added to backup rookie Josh Rosen's steep learning curve has me down on Arizona's quarterback play enough to bump Fitz lower than he deserves to be.
3.12 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
2017 12.76 FPPG (16) Minnesota Vikings
2016 14.87 FPPG (13) Minnesota Vikings
2015 11.18 FPPG (14) Minnesota Vikings
Swaggy Diggs gave us one of the greatest moments from 2017 with his game changing catch to upset the Saints. It seemed the Vikings started leaning a little more on him over their last five games (including playoffs), edging Adam Thielen in targets (8.4 to 7.2 targets per game) after Thielen dominated targets by a wide margin in the weeks prior.
Stefon also managed to outscore Theilen over those final five weeks adding four touchdowns to Thielen's zero. His thin frame is the only thing that worries me a bit. Hopefully he can continue to improve on his ability to avoid taking the bigger hits as his veteran status grows.
Losing OC Pat Shurmur might hurt, but adding QB Kirk Cousins and his three consecutive 4000+ yard 25+ TD seasons should help make up for it. Cousins did like to spread it around, so there is the risk of that watering down stats across the board.
Electric with the ball in his hands, only 24 so he hasn't yet peaked, and a possibly expanding role makes him an attractive target in upcoming drafts. If he can sustain that roughly 8.5 targets per game that he had in 2016 and late season 2017, and keep the improved touchdown numbers, he could pay off on his fairly pricey investment. I like his odds.
It became increasingly difficult to slot players into an exact order with each passing selection. I'd therefore say this series has come to its natural end, and I may veer toward more of a "who am I targeting or avoiding" type article.
I also have quite a few Bold Predictions regarding player vs. player props or the like.
I've completed six Footballguys ($350) drafts spread out evenly between May 12th and June 29th and have noticed small trends. I hope to have benefited by pouncing on "my players" in these early drafts, before the reporting notches up and they rise up rankings.
As always, thank you for reading and I hope you enjoyed this short series.