Signal Focused 2018 Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Round One
Many things can happen to this rookie class between now and Kickoff Weekend of the 2018 NFL season. Injuries to rookies themselves, injuries to key teammates... the "lingering unsigned" wandering around your little safe haven of a dynasty team, face-bumping tall chain linked fences.
Lucky for you, we don't have to wait the nearly four months until kickoff. In a mere four DAYS, we (royal we) will be exhaling thick white pensive clouds and slow-burning through a bottle of Macallan, knee deep in FFPC Dynasty Draft Weekend!
If you are a "Dynasty Playa" and have somehow fallen behind your allotted preparatory study time, consider this me shifting in my seat, opening up a direct peeking angle to my cheat sheet. If you happen to actually BE in one of my seven dynasty leagues, may your swollen ego prevent you from absorbing a single thing to come.
This will be the article that puts a stamp on my ability or lack thereof to successfully imagine THE FUTURE. With each passing year, and all of the changes that take place when dealing with life, we can look back and see how finely tuned my foresight was or was not. Nobody comes close to getting it right all the time, and my simple goal is to consistently get it right more often than any other person, team or algorithm in existence. That's all.
I present to you round one of my Signal Focused 2018 Dynasty Rookie Rankings.
STATUS CHANGERS
These highest impact players are true difference makers when it comes to your fantasy production. They will put THE FEAR into your weekly opponents as well as retain excellent value in potential trade leverage for years to come.
1.01 Saquon Barkley RB NYG
Prototype every down modern day running back. We in the dynasty community have been waiting two years for Barkley, and his name has been virtually engraved on the 2018 1.01 pick for more than a year. Back to back 20+ TD seasons, soft hands, explosive and elusive. Progressed from 19 FPTS/gm (PPR “Fantasy Points Per Game”) as a freshman, to 24 as a sophomore, to 28 per game as a junior. Despite his reputation for being humble, I see a competitive bonfire throwing sparks of pure confidence. The New York Giants drafted a highly marketable game-changing back, and the same can be said for dynasty. You will know your rookie draft has finally started when Saquon Barkley is off the board.
1.02 Rashaad Penny RB SEA
There was an old country music producer who would sit in his chair audition after audition listening to aspiring singers and groups. You were doing something right if you could get him to start moving in his chair, tapping his toes or bobbing with the rhythm, but you REALLY knew you had a hit and potential stardom when he’d rise from his chair and start dancing. Last years class had five or six guys that could get me dancing, but this class has only these two listed here.
Talk about humble… as a junior Penny stood patiently on the sideline like a soldier at attention, waiting for his coach to run him in. Finally handed the starting role as a senior, he made the most of it, combining for well over 2300 yards and 25 TD’s. He saved his best for last, scoring 13 TD’s while stringing together five consecutive games with 200+ yards rushing to close out his college career. Sure hands, nice size, breakaway speed and excellent vision. The way he sees the next level and sets up defenders is a thing of beauty. Penny led this entire (non-QB) draft class with an outstanding 31 FPTS/gm, comparable to Leonard Fournette’s 31 as a sophomore at LSU. SEA is ready to let him build on his low-mileage resume as their new three down workhorse back as they transition to a more balanced attack in 2018. I’m all-in on his excellent floor plus ceiling and would not hesitate to take him with the second overall pick in upcoming rookie drafts.
BUILDING BLOCKS
This tier is made up of highly coveted difference makers. There are only a handful of the elite types to go around, so surrounding them tightly with players from this tier is often what makes the difference between ending the weekend with a smile or a frown. A small red flag here or there might be the only thing holding them back. You want them on your squad. You NEED them on your squad.
1.03 Ronald Jones RB TB
Ronald “McDonald” was in the mix for top three pick status pre-draft, and landing in Tampa Bay solidified him there in my rankings. Despite being on the smaller size, he averaged over 25 touches and 158 combined yards per game over his final SIX, with 11 TD’s tacked on. Trying to get paid like a contract year you say? Well, the season prior he also finished strong averaging over 20 touches and 142 yards per game over the last six games, again with 11 TD’s. Who’s the big MAC? Impressive consistency with alpha swagger and three consecutive years averaging over six yards per carry. Excellent cutting ability with “Texas district 100m champion” on his resume for those who question his top gear. As many touchdowns (20) in 2017 as years alive, he is the youngest player in this draft class out of those in my database. Draft away!
1.04 Sony Michel RB NE
When the New England Patriots invest a first round pick in a running back, you sit up and take notice. I imagine they considered every scenario and pounced on “Playstation” with a clear plan for his implementation into their offense. His reputation for solid pass protection most likely factored in as well. Very efficient, producing nice stats on limited touches and has been battle tested for years in the vaunted SEC, averaging close to six yards per carry (5.93) over his career. The stage is set for him to absorb a fantasy friendly situation that carries a sweet floor with upside when they feed him his share of the easy passes the Patriots distribute to their running backs (around 135 targets per season over the past three years). His early draft pedigree should equate to more of a workload from a single New England RB than we have grown accustomed to in recent years. I’m buying.
1.05 D.J. Moore WR CAR
Reminding me of how DeAndre Hopkins has had to adjust to a frying pan full of quarterbacks over the past few years, Moore had to deal with six different QB’s over his past two seasons. He still managed impressive consistency despite that handicap, setting a new Terrapin record (80) for receptions in a season. He then proceeded to flat out tear up the NFL Combine, separating himself from his peers and became the first wide receiver taken in the NFL Draft. Carolina is waiting with open arms, hoping to finally have that difference making WR they have lacked since Steve Smith moved on. Being the youngest of the drafted wide outs should keep his trade value high for a long, long time.
1.06 Kerryon Johnson RB DET
“Always Flies Free” is getting no love in the dynasty community, but I think as the offseason progresses, their tune will change. Kerryon has the all-around game and workload ready size to grind away the clock for the Lions as he did for the Tigers when they handed Alabama their only loss in 2017. Highly recruited stud RB in high school who was also All-State in basketball, Johnson put up over 25 FPTS/gm with 20 TD’s in the SEC as a young 20 year old (still 20). His talent in the passing game should cut into the target load of his fellow RB teammates. DET made Kerryon an early second round pick, passing on Guice who was still on the board, and I believe they made the correct choice.
1.07 Mike Gesicki TE MIA
Remember that “Best TE Class Ever" from 2017? When you stack their combine numbers side by side with Gesicki’s… Mikey Wins! Standing 6’6” tall with over 34” arms and over 10” hands and then combining all of that with a 41.5” vert and “Hasn't had a legitimate pass drop in two years” and I’m buying! Miami has a major void to fill on offense, and Mikey looks mighty poised to fill it! Like many of the very best tight ends before him, he excelled in basketball as well, setting his New Jersey high school record in scoring and winning Slam Dunk competitions for fun. The Dolphins look set to give him the rare early load for a rookie TE, and his landing spot seems much better to me now than I thought early on.
1.08 Michael Gallup WR DAL
Gallup gets bumped up just enough for landing in Dallas to squeeze his way into this tier. He has as much talent or more than any of the Cowboy wide receivers and has my bet to separate enough as he learns and grows to actually take the lead WR role there sooner than later. A nice combination of hands, body control and speed as well as a chain moving grinder who can score in bunches. I think his skill set will complement Prescott perfectly and it would not surprise me at all if Gallup winds up leading Dallas in receptions as a rookie.
THE OBSTACLE COURSE
We've wrapped up the top two tiers and can now get to work on those players who have full service NFL talent, but may have to wait a little while to break through. Some are blocked by the high walls of elite level stars while others may have to toil through the mud alongside mirror-image types trying to eat their lunch. A few have old vets still hanging atop the ladder or else the dreaded "established role player" that will severely hinder one dimension of your game. The problem with banking on "your guy" to come through this mess clean in the long run is that his value can drop so low you may end up tossing them back into the waiver pool or frustratingly sell them for pennies on the dollar. Maybe by the time he blossoms, that elite QB you were excited to pair him with is washed up. Maybe your favorite head coach or OC changes teams and the new ones have no attachment. Even your best made long term plans can be ruined by that young and hungry crop of rookies set to enter the 2019 and 2020 drafts. Can't wait!
1.09 James Washington WR PIT
This is just the type I was speaking of. TALENTED kid, great pick by the Steelers, but how long can you wait? I guess that really is the luxury of building a DYNASTY. Your dynasty team has no holes and is a cash machine. Your winning leaves you only late round picks, but the impatience of teams struggling to win NOW allow players like Washington to fall into their laps. His talent is without question, but Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster have proven theirs as well. Sometimes a good plan is to send a probing offer for these blocked types a few weeks into a slow start.
1.10 Derrius Guice RB WAS
The Redskins run game hasn't been good since the "good" RG3 era. If the run game isn't good, making you touchdown dependent on what looks to be a low scoring offense that Vegas projects for 7 wins...life ain't so good. Then tack on Mr. Wonderful (Chris Thompson) prancing in atop a spotted Appaloosa every third down, and you can make a half crazy Guice go full crazy. Tread carefully.
1.11 Nick Chubb RB CLE
I was a huge fan of Chubb when he was out-shining Gurley as a freshman, and am blown away by how well he transitioned his game post injury. He lost a big part of what made him special, but his top speed remains. He became a banger type and long gone are his days of averaging 22-to-25 FPTS/gm as a freshman and sophomore, settling in at a more pedestrian 15 FPTS/gm as a junior and senior. With Duke Johnson around to soak up the receptions and Carlos Hyde playing the grizzled vet role, things could come along slowly for Nick.
1.12 Royce Freeman RB DEN
I wish we could just have a UFC match between Freeman and Booker to resolve the RB pecking order in Denver. This one could be a good fight, but even the winner may not be that impressive on a week to week basis. Freeman had excellent stats, but Booker's were even better on a per game basis coming out. I've watched bust after bust RB roll off that Oregon Ducks assembly line, and even Freeman's 2nd, 3rd and 4th string no-name teammates have sweet looking production in all four years working in that system. What I feel is most likely to happen is that the Broncos prove to be in a new rebuilding phase and the RB class of 2019 will pose a dangerous and looming threat.
Hope you enjoyed reading about the Signal Focused top 12 rookies from the class of 2018. Twelve more to follow with a breakdown of Round Two rankings, coming soon to a theater near you!